Analytics & Stats
De Zerbi’s tactical choices to steady Tottenham for the run-in
Roberto De Zerbi must prepare Tottenham by April 12 for a run of fixtures beginning at Sunderland. .
Tottenham have moved decisively to appoint Roberto De Zerbi, offering the former Brighton & Hove Albion coach a reported five-year deal as the club seeks to preserve its Premier League status. The immediate task is stark: De Zerbi must prepare a squad that sees itself capable of European nights to avoid a slide that could leave trips to Portsmouth and Preston North End next season on the agenda.
He has until April 12 to ready the group for the slog ahead, with Spurs next visiting Sunderland in the Premier League. Tactical flexibility is likely, but a return to the 4-2-3-1 that has been his default across much of his career is a realistic baseline. That shape would place Xavi Simons in a No. 10 role to maximise the Dutchman’s creative influence between the lines.
De Zerbi’s football emphasises artificial transitions and progression through depth. Players must be comfortable on the ball and able to execute efficient passing sequences to escape pressure and create space for forwards. That places a premium on Tottenham’s most technically secure performers. Captain Cristian Romero and Pedro Porro, alongside Destiny Udogie when he advances, will be central to building from the back, with Micky van de Ven capable of covering when full backs push high.
Midfield options include Archie Gray as a current form pick, with Rodrigo Bentancur likely to be relied upon when fit. Bentancur performed well under Antonio Conte in a structure built on automatisms. Yves Bissouma offers bravery in the build-up and Lucas Bergvall provides carrying ability.
De Zerbi has varied his approach recently at Marseille and used a back three more often there than previously. A 3-4-2-1 is an option if three fit centre backs are available, with Kevin Danso as a useful third choice.
In attack De Zerbi must lean on Mohammed Kudus for the coming fixtures, pairing him with Xavi Simons between the lines and using Dominic Solanke as a reliable focal point. Randal Kolo Muani offers rotation but Solanke’s ability to retain possession and press is highlighted in this context.
De Zerbi’s admiration for Pep Guardiola is well known, and influences from narrow central combinations championed by others may also inform his set-up at Tottenham.
Analytics & Stats
Opta Forecasts Final-Day Relegation Scenarios for 2025/26
Opta projects West Ham as favorites for relegation while Tottenham still hold finalday control today
The Premier League reaches its final round this weekend with one relegation place still undecided. Burnley and Wolves are already confirmed as relegated, leaving a single spot to settle between Tottenham and West Ham.
Tottenham have one match remaining to salvage what the draft describes as an utterly disastrous campaign. Their destiny remains in their own hands going into Sunday’s finale, though form this season offers little comfort. West Ham still hope to overturn their London rivals and avoid the drop.
The Opta supercomputer provides clear projections. It predicts Tottenham will finish on 39.73 points with a 14.09% chance of relegation. West Ham are projected to reach 37.78 points and face an 85.91% probability of relegation. Burnley and Wolves, both already relegated, have projected points of 22.42 and 20.31 respectively, each with a 100% relegation chance.
With Burnley and Wolves long gone, just one relegation spot remains. West Ham are occupying that position and must win on the final day while also relying on Tottenham losing. The Irons sit two points behind Spurs, but Tottenham’s superior goal difference means West Ham know three points will only be enough if Tottenham are beaten. The unlikelihood of West Ham winning and Spurs losing is reflected in Opta’s projections. As per the supercomputer, Nuno Espírito Santo’s side have an 85.91% chance of being relegated when they host Leeds United on the final day of the season.
Opta’s match outcome probabilities show Tottenham versus Everton as: Home Win 50.4%, Draw 22.8%, Away Win 26.8%. For West Ham against Leeds: Home Win 51.5%, Draw 23.8%, Away Win 24.7%.
West Ham are not yet mathematically out of the fight. Tottenham host Everton in search of only their third home win of the Premier League season. On their own patch, Spurs have won twice, drawn six times and lost 10 matches, the joint-worst home record in the division, tied with Burnley.
Analytics & Stats
Opta Model Keeps Arsenal on Top as City Narrow Title Gap to Two Points
Opta predicts Arsenal to finish on 83.50 points (85.68%). Man City projected 80.43 (14.32%). End May
Opta’s supercomputer predicts a tight finish to the Premier League season with Arsenal remaining the favourite and Manchester City closing the gap.
City’s 3–0 win over Crystal Palace on Wednesday reduced the deficit to two points, with both title contenders having two league games remaining. Opta projects Arsenal to finish on about 83.50 points and awards them an 85.68% chance of securing the title. The forecast notes Arsenal face Burnley and Crystal Palace to close their campaign.
Manchester City are predicted to end on roughly 80.43 points and carry a 14.32% probability of overtaking Arsenal. Opta highlights City’s recent wins against Brentford and Crystal Palace but also points to the costly draw at Everton as influential in the projection. City’s final fixtures against Bournemouth and Aston Villa are listed as challenging.
Below the top two, Opta forecasts Manchester United to finish third on 68.13 points and to have already secured Champions League qualification. The model credits United’s resurgence under Michael Carrick and projects their best placing since 2022–23. Liverpool are tipped for fourth with about 62.33 points and a 97.03% chance of Champions League football next season.
Aston Villa are forecast fifth on 61.07 points with an 87.18% chance of that finish, although a Europa League triumph would also guarantee Champions League entry. Bournemouth and Brighton are predicted to occupy sixth and seventh with roughly 57.46 and 56.11 points respectively; Bournemouth’s 17-game unbeaten run is noted despite the model favoring them for sixth.
Opta places Chelsea and Everton around the mid-50s point totals, with Chelsea projected to finish ninth on about 52 points. The model underlines Chelsea’s lack of a league victory since March 4 and contrasts that with last summer’s Club World Cup and the club’s fourth-place position on Christmas Day.
At the bottom, Opta frames a relegation fight centred on Tottenham and West Ham. Spurs drew 1–1 with Leeds while West Ham lost 1–0 to Arsenal. Roberto De Zerbi’s men retain a two-point buffer, and the model gives Spurs a narrow edge to avoid relegation by that margin.
Analytics & Stats
Opta projection puts Arsenal firmly in control after London Stadium drama
Opta model boosts Arsenal’s title odds to 87.2% after late VAR overturn and Raya save in London 2026
Arsenal’s visit to the London Stadium produced the sort of nervy afternoon that tight title races often deliver. The leaders laboured as West Ham grew into the game and created the moments that might have swung the result. David Raya was on hand to potentially ‘Stefan Ortega’ Arsenal’s way to glory with a monumental save to deny Mateus Fernandes, minutes before Leandro Trossard capitalised following a curious Martin Ødegaard meander.
Trossard’s effort looked decisive until stoppage-time drama. West Ham believed they had salvaged a point, but VAR intervened and Pablo’s impediment of Raya was judged sufficient to overturn the on-field decision. That lengthy review ultimately left Arsenal with the three points.
Opta’s projection model now gives Arsenal an 87.2% chance of the 2025/26 title, a rise from 79.7% after Manchester City eased past Brentford 3–0 on Saturday. Opta predicts Arsenal to finish on 83.37 points and Man City on 79.86, with City still able to cut the gap to two points this week. The forecast assumes City must win out to reclaim the title, with a difficult trip to Bournemouth among their remaining fixtures.
Opta’s European places projections show: Manchester United (actual 65, predicted 67.94) at 100% for Champions League qualification; Liverpool (59, 62.37) at 96.98%; Aston Villa (59, 61.03) at 87.36%; Bournemouth (55, 57.48) at 10.78%; Brighton (53, 56.08) at 4.88%. Manchester United secured their return to Europe’s premier competition by beating Liverpool 3–2 this month.
The fight for sixth is affected by the Europa League final: an Aston Villa win in Istanbul would alter qualification routes. Opta gives sixth-place chances of Bournemouth 48.63%, Brighton 32.12%, Brentford 3.85%, Chelsea 0.8% and Everton 0.37%. Bournemouth remain unbeaten since Antoine Semenyo fled to Manchester.
At the wrong end, Opta’s relegation probabilities place Burnley and Wolves at 100%, West Ham 87.65% and Tottenham 12.35%, while Leeds, Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest sit at 0% in the model.
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