Arsenal’s visit to Anfield was supposed to expose the scars of a difficult week. Instead, it produced a result that changes the feel of the 2026/27 Premier League season after only nine matches.

The Gunners arrived with the memory of their defeat at League Two Fleetwood Town still fresh, but they handled the occasion with the sort of control usually associated with champions. Kai Havertz’s early strike gave them the platform, and although Liverpool tried to respond with pressure and noise from the Kop, Arsenal refused to bend. Their victory was built on discipline, patience and defensive resistance, and it leaves the look of a collapse far behind them.

Opta’s latest supercomputer forecast now places Arsenal firmly on top of the table. They are projected to finish with 81.21 points and hold a 68.23% title chance, while Manchester City sit second on 71.98 projected points and 18.86% title odds. Brighton are third in the model, Liverpool fourth and Chelsea fifth.

Arsenal’s surge has also pushed their probability of retaining the Premier League title to 68.23%, a sharp rise after Manchester City suffered a second straight defeat. City remain the nearest challengers, though even their prospects are listed below 19%, not including any possible points deduction. Liverpool, already nine points back, have only a 3.06% title chance, despite being considered the most obvious alternative challenger.

Brighton remain one of the stories of the season after beating both of the top two, but Opta still gives them just a 6.86% chance of winning the league. Their more realistic target is Champions League qualification, where they are the only side outside Arsenal and City with better than even odds.

Further down, Manchester United’s position is bleak. Their winless run in all competitions has reached nine games, and Opta now gives them just a 1.48% chance of qualifying for the Champions League. In the relegation projection, Tottenham have moved clear of danger after three wins in a row, while United are suddenly among those with the greatest risk of dropping into the second tier.

Manchester City’s second straight Premier League defeat arrived on home turf, with Brighton & Hove Albion leaving with a 1-0 win and City left to question another flat display.

For long spells, the hosts looked short of ideas. Half-hearted penalty appeals and Iliman Ndiaye’s wayward header were among the few openings before the break, and the pattern barely changed after it. City pushed, but their attacks rarely developed into clear chances, with Brighton’s back line standing firm throughout.

Ndiaye struck the woodwork twice, while Nico O’Reilly headed just wide late on, yet the overall impression was of a side unable to find a decisive edge. City carried plenty of endeavour, but Brighton’s organisation made that effort count for very little.

The result leaves City facing the possibility of surrendering top spot if Arsenal beat Liverpool on Sunday, and the timing will concern them after back-to-back slips in the early title race. The opening seven gameweeks had suggested a side that could still overwhelm opponents even without the fluidity of Pep Guardiola’s best teams, but recent defeats to Paris Saint-Germain and Aston Villa have been followed by these two meetings with Brighton, and the warning signs are now harder to ignore.

There was little to admire in a side that had already looked unconvincing in midweek, and this performance followed a familiar pattern. Without the injured Antoine Semenyo and after Rayan Cherki was dropped to the bench, City lacked penetration in midfield and sharpness in the final third.

At the back, there were troubling moments as well. Matheus Nunes’s missed clearance gifted Brighton the lead, while another move carved through the hosts before Maxim De Cuyper sent an effort over from close range.

Come the final whistle, City had the possession and the shot count, but not the answers.

GK: Gianluigi Donnarumma—6.5: Quieter than his deputy Gerónimo Rulli was midweek. One terrible pass into midfield almost cost City, though.
RB: Matheus Nunes—6.0: Nunes’s blunder could be attributed to rustiness, but there are few excuses for such a basic mistake. One of several untidy moments for him.
CB: Abdukodir Khusanov—7.5: Brighton’s counter attacking sequences unnerved City on occasion, but Khusanov generally handled his individual duels effectively.
CB: Rúben Dias—6.7: Sloppy in possession-as were many of his teammates-and was rarely tested defensively.
LB: Joško Gvardiol—7.0: Offers an incredible attacking threat. Feasibly could have notched a goal or an assist on another day, consistently popping up in dangerous zones.
CM: Ayyoub Bouaddi—5.9: An unpolished performance from the youngster, who still has much to learn before being able to command the Premier League stage. Hooked before the hour.
CM: Elliot Anderson—7.5: Covered every last blade of grass courtesy of his endless engine. Whether snapping into tackles or sparking attacking sequences, Anderson was at the heart of things for City.
RW: Iliman Ndiaye—7.0: City’s brightest spark for much of the encounter, but profligacy proved his barrier to success. Spurned his side’s most promising moments.
AM: Enzo Fernández—6.3: Produced a tame performance when unleashed in the advanced midfield role, and was unsurprisingly sacrificed as Maresca sought an equalizer.
LW: Jérémy Doku—8.3: Caused chaos with his speed and directness, but, as is so often the case with Doku, the end product didn’t match the build-up. Just gave the ball away so much.
ST: Erling Haaland—6.2: Typically isolated for much of the encounter-underscored by his 12 first-half touches, nine fewer than Donnarumma-and therefore unable to add to his nine Premier League goals.
SUB: Rayan Cherki (55’ for Bouaddi)—6.5: Brought on to produce some magic. Failed to do so.
SUB: Nico O’Reilly (64’ for Fernández)—6.8: Missed an excellent opportunity in the dying embers.
SUB: Allan (79’ for Ndiaye)—6.0: An enthusiastic runner.
SUB: Phil Foden (79’ for Gvardiol)—6.0: On the fringes.

Gameweek 9 brings a stacked Premier League schedule, with several meetings that carry clear weight in the early-season picture. The most eye-catching fixtures are Chelsea against Manchester United at Stamford Bridge and Liverpool’s home clash with Arsenal, while there are also plenty of tight contests elsewhere across the division.

At Stamford Bridge, Chelsea are tipped to come through 2-1 against a Manchester United side under pressure after back-to-back three-goal defeats to Como and Bournemouth. Michael Carrick remains in charge for the trip to west London after talks with Bruno Fernandes and the rest of the squad, but this feels like a critical test. Chelsea have their own issues, yet home advantage and the absence of João Pedro could still matter in a narrow contest.

Bournemouth’s strong run is expected to continue with a 2-1 win over Leeds United. The Cherries have produced a striking sequence of results across multiple competitions, and with Rayan, Marcus Tavernier and Evanilson supported by Eli Junior Kroupi’s return, they look well placed to extend that momentum.

Other calls point to draws for Brentford against Nottingham Forest and Newcastle United against Everton, while Coventry and Sunderland are forecast to cancel each other out. Hull are backed to edge Ipswich 1-0, and Manchester City are favoured to beat Brighton 3-2 in what could be the weekend’s most open game.

Tottenham are projected to keep improving with a 2-0 win over Crystal Palace, while Aston Villa are expected to defeat Fulham 3-0 after their recent uptick in form. The standout result, though, is at Anfield, where Arsenal are predicted to win 2-1 after Liverpool’s recent consistency meets a team looking to respond after a cup setback. The final matchup, Newcastle versus Everton, is also forecast to finish level.