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How VAR Shaped the 2025/26 Premier League Table

VAR decisions reshaped 2025/26: Arsenal +5 from calls, Brighton lose 7 points, City affected once.OK

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The 2025/26 Premier League season shows how a single distant review can alter outcomes and, cumulatively, the shape of the table. Arsenal have gained five points from VAR interventions and would still lead the division without video review, but by a much narrower margin. With VAR Arsenal sit on 79 points; without it they would have 74.

Manchester City have seen only one fixture materially affected by a VAR overturn. In January they were awarded a first-half penalty which Erling Haaland converted at home to Brighton & Hove Albion. Brighton’s Kaoru Mitoma later scored what would have been a match-winner but the VAR correctly identified a blatant trip from Diego Gómez on Jérémy Doku, turning three points into one for the champions.

Brighton are the side most disadvantaged by VAR this term. They would be seven points better off without it and would sit above Liverpool and Aston Villa in the top four. Opponents have been awarded three penalties on VAR reviews against Brighton, while the Seagulls were denied a spot kick in a goalless draw with Crystal Palace. They have also had two potential equalizers overturned by delayed offside checks.

Bournemouth have also been hindered by video review, provoking repeated objections from Andoni Iraola, who remarked: “We have very short sleeves,” he bizarrely pointed out. The Basque coach has questioned where officials draw the line on handball decisions.

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Liverpool and Manchester United would show the same points totals regardless of VAR. For Liverpool, however, perceptions of inconsistency persist. “I don’t think it’s a surprise to anyone this season that if there’s a VAR intervention or if there’s something that could be left or right [50-50] then the decision goes against us,” the Liverpool manager fumed after his side conceded a controversial goal at the hands of United’s Benjamin Šeško . Recent weeks, though, have seen VAR both penalise and aid the Reds with overturned calls and flagged offside goals.

Only Sunderland have benefited more from VAR than Arsenal. Key interventions for the Gunners came across three matches. Some decisions, such as the disallowed Callum Wilson goal for West Ham, are widely accepted as correct; others remain contested, including events in Arsenal’s 1–0 win over Everton where the Key Match Incidents panel found Everton were wrongly denied a penalty.

Arsenal

Arteta Questions Touchline Standards After Latest Booking

Arteta said he is tracking rival managers after receiving his second yellow card of the season.

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Mikel Arteta has taken aim at what he sees as inconsistent discipline for Premier League managers after collecting his second yellow card of the season on Saturday.

The Arsenal boss said he is keeping records of rival coaches who step beyond their technical area without being punished, insisting he will not ignore what he believes is uneven treatment from officials. Known for his constant energy on the sideline, Arteta argued that others are getting away with behaviour that brings him immediate sanction.

“I do have to be careful,” Arteta said when asked about his caution in his postgame press conference. “And we need to have good sensors there. There are managers that have the record in the league, 36 times in 10 minutes leave the touchline, no yellows.

“So I’m clipping all of that. I have a massive storage of images. So if somebody is going to say, ‘I’m not in the record yet, somebody else has the record.’

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“Then it’s 36 yellow cards in 10 minutes for the manager. I don’t know where we’re going to be. Let’s see.”

The issue is more than a matter of irritation. Once a manager reaches three yellow cards, an automatic one-match suspension follows. Six cautions bring a two-game ban, while nine lead to a three-match punishment. With only late October reached, Arteta is already halfway to that first threshold.

That means his next booking would remove him from the touchline for Arsenal’s following match, regardless of any argument he might make with his own “massive storage of images.” Even a spirited defence would not alter the sanction.

His post-match comments did not stop there. Despite Arsenal’s gritty win over Everton, Arteta also criticised the schedule, saying the workload had been far from ideal.

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“We’re very happy with the victory, the performance and the week, because we were given a terrible schedule,” Arteta said. “Playing Sunday afternoon, then Wednesday night in Munich, coming here really late on Thursday and then having to play again in the Premier League against a really tough opponent on Saturday at 3 p.m.

“We have overcome some injuries, and I’m really proud of the mentality of the team in the conditions today.”

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Arteta Jokes Raya’s Spain Return Will Have to Wait

Arteta says Raya’s Spain move can wait, with Arsenal likely to keep their goalkeeper longer.

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Mikel Arteta has played down the idea of David Raya heading back to Spain any time soon, joking that the Arsenal goalkeeper’s next appearance there may only come on holiday.

Raya has made no secret of his long-term wish to play in La Liga. As he put it: “Perhaps, in the future, I could play for a Spanish club. I’m Spanish and I’d love to play there.”

That ambition stands out because Raya has never played professional club football in his home country. Born and raised in Barcelona, he began in the youth ranks at UE Cornellà, which has been owned since April 2026 by Lionel Messi. He left Spain at 16 in 2012, moving to England in search of a career and eventually landing at Blackburn Rovers. After progressing to the first team two years later, he became their starting goalkeeper for the 2017–18 and 2018–19 campaigns.

Brentford later spotted his talent, and Arteta judged in 2023 that Raya was the upgrade Arsenal needed over Aaron Ramsdale. Since then, the goalkeeper has collected three Premier League Golden Gloves across the last three seasons and, by Monday night, could be in position to claim the Yashin Trophy at the 2026 Ballon d’Or ceremony.

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Raya has also been a regular presence in Spain squads over the last four years, even if he is not a first-choice international starter. That has brought him both a European Championship and World Cup winner’s medal, yet one major piece remains missing from his résumé: a spell in La Liga.

Arteta was not in the mood to encourage an early return. “I think David has to play in Spain at some point … on the beach with his friends in the summer,” the Gunners boss said. “For the next few years, he needs to play here for Arsenal .”

That timing matters, because Raya is now into the final two years of his Arsenal contract, which ends in June 2028. He will be just short of 33 when it expires. Arteta’s comments suggest Arsenal may soon try to extend that deal well beyond 2028.

If Raya does chase La Liga while still at his peak, the decision point may come no later than 2028. Barcelona would appear the natural fit, though the club’s 2025 move for Joan García complicates that route. Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid could also be possible in time, depending on how the situations around Thibaut Courtois and Jan Oblak develop.

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Villa’s Win Over City Triggers Another Opta Refresh

Villa beat City, Arsenal stay close, and Opta updates the title, Europe and relegation outlooks.

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Aston Villa have delivered the Premier League’s first defeat of Manchester City this season, and they are also the first side to take points from them. Unai Emery’s team earned that landmark result at Villa Park, where City were below their best and paid for it. Gianluigi Donnarumma and Marc Guéhi were both singled out for especially poor showings, Nicolas Jackson struck on loan to make the difference, and Zion Suzuki contributed six saves across the 90 minutes.

City remain top of the current Premier League standings, but the performance offered the first domestic indication that they are not untouchable. Arsenal followed by matching them on points after beating Everton, leaving the title race level at the summit and Arsenal second only on goal difference.

That Arsenal victory came with Bukayo Saka unavailable and possibly out until Christmas. The Gunners were short of natural creativity, but they compensated by rediscovering the set-piece strength that served them so well last season.

With those results, and two others on Saturday, Opta’s supercomputer updated its predictions again.

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The title model now has Arsenal first with 79.55 predicted points and a 53.82% chance of finishing champions. Manchester City are second on 76.11 points and 34.39%. Brighton remain the only other side above 5%, while Liverpool are at 3.29% and Chelsea at 1.42%.

The Champions League outlook keeps Arsenal and City well clear, with both above 90% to qualify. Brighton stand at 58.37%, Liverpool at 46.70%, Chelsea at 31.28% and Aston Villa at 21.66%. Brentford, Leeds and Everton are further back, and Manchester United’s five-match winless run has left them below 6%.

At the lower end, Tottenham have made a notable move in the right direction. Two wins in a row have cut their relegation chance to 14%, and the model now projects them to finish 13th. That is not especially strong, but it is a considerable improvement on consecutive 17th-place finishes in the last two seasons.

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