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Opta Model Signals Chaotic Relegation Race After Spurs and Hammers Slip

Opta model rates Wolves and Burnley certain relegation; Spurs face steep odds with five games left .

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The latest round of Premier League fixtures confirmed the first team to be relegated to the Championship. Wolves have now dropped, a reality underlined by the weekend results.

Tottenham Hotspur impressed against Brighton & Hove Albion but succumbed to a 95th-minute equalizer that left them sitting 18th in the standings. Fortunately for Roberto De Zerbi’s side, West Ham United failed to take advantage on Monday. A 0–0 draw against Crystal Palace was enough to demote Wolves but it did little to ease West Ham’s relegation fears.

Nuno Espírito Santo’s Hammers are two points clear with five games to play, while even Nottingham Forest’s five-point cushion is not secure at this late stage of the season.

With five fixtures remaining, the Opta supercomputer offers a stark view of the bottom five. Wolves and Burnley are assigned a 100.00% chance of relegation. Tottenham occupy 18th on 31 points and are given a 58.33% likelihood of dropping, with an expected points total of 36.88. West Ham sit on 33 points with an expected 38.54 and a 36.90% relegation chance. Nottingham Forest sit 16th on 36 points, expected to reach 42.00 and shown a 4.38% chance of relegation.

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Burnley face an unenviable test against title-chasing Manchester City on Wednesday. Scott Parker’s side must avoid defeat to postpone their relegation. A loss would guarantee a spot in the Championship next season and even an unlikely draw would effectively seal it, given Burnley’s poor goal difference.

Spurs currently sit two points behind West Ham and are not predicted to close that gap over their remaining fixtures. A trip to bottom side Wolves next weekend offers Spurs a clear chance to boost morale, and a meeting with 15th-placed Leeds United looks winnable. Tricky games against Aston Villa, Chelsea and Everton remain potential pitfalls.

West Ham’s remaining schedule runs through Everton, Brentford, Arsenal and Newcastle United, before a final-day meeting with Leeds. Their form — two wins and a pair of draws from their last five games — is the principal factor keeping survival realistic; a similar return over the final five matches would likely secure safety.

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Why Andoni Iraola believes Florian Wirtz can still define Liverpool’s season

Iraola wants Wirtz central, involved and freer after a difficult first Liverpool season.

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Liverpool’s new manager has made his view on Florian Wirtz plain: if the club are to take a step forward this season, they will need the German to operate at a high level. The challenge now is putting him in the conditions that suit him best.

Wirtz arrived last summer in a move that was a club-record $156 million (£116 million) at the time, but his first year on Merseyside fell well short of expectation. He did not record a Premier League assist before December and had to wait until Christmas for his first goal in any competition. A short spell of improved form followed around the turn of the year, yet the overall campaign remained deeply disappointing.

Liverpool’s wider struggles were part of the same picture. The side failed to build on the title they won in 2024-25, which led to Arne Slot’s departure and the arrival of Iraola this summer. The new coach is already focused on finding a structure that lets Wirtz show the level that once made him the most expensive British transfer of all time.

The most obvious adjustment is positional. Wirtz is naturally a central attacking midfielder and did the vast majority of his best work for Bayer Leverkusen in the No. 10 role. Slot often used him on the wing last season, partly to fit Dominik Szoboszlai into the side and partly to reduce the physical demands of Premier League midfield play. Iraola has indicated he does not intend to follow that route.

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“We need a very good version of Florian,” the incoming coach warned ahead of Liverpool’s preseason clash with Leeds United . “We know what he can give us. I think he’s also suited to our game model.

“I see him more probably in that position behind the striker. We know that he has played with Germany more on the left sometimes. But, I think we’re going to start working with him in that position behind the striker.”

That matters because Wirtz needs involvement to influence games. Last season he averaged around 16 fewer touches per 90 minutes than in his final Leverkusen campaign, while his dribbles, shots and expected assists all dropped. He was also no longer the sole attacking reference point, with Mohamed Salah demanding the ball from the other side.

Salah’s exit gives Iraola another reason to believe Wirtz can settle into the role more naturally. For a player who takes risks in the final third, the manager’s style may provide the freedom he lacked last season.

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Arsenal’s Left-Wing Options if Vinícius Júnior Remains Out of Reach

Arsenal still have options on the left if Vinícius Júnior stays put, with several names in play.

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Arsenal may not land Vinícius Júnior, and the reasons are fairly clear. The Brazilian is understood to want to stay, while his club do not want to sell. If a move were ever to happen, it would likely come only after a stand-off that suited nobody, whether through a fee this year or a free transfer next year.

Even so, Arsenal still have room to strengthen the left side of their attack. Vinícius would be a major signing on footballing and commercial levels, but any pursuit would force the club to confront affordability, wage structure and the wider consequences of reshaping the dressing-room balance.

There has already been change in that area. Leandro Trossard has been sold to Beşiktaş, and Christos Tzolis has arrived as a younger replacement. Tzolis delivered strong figures at Club Brugge, but the Premier League is a different test. He previously struggled in England when younger, so he looks more like depth, rotation and cover than a headline solution.

That leaves Gabriel Martinelli as the current senior option. He has come under scrutiny after being labelled as having “no significant strengths” by WhoScored in a viral X post this week. Last season he made 53 appearances in all competitions, yet managed only five Premier League goal contributions. His Champions League return was stronger, though that came after several favourable league-phase opponents, and he did not score in the knockout rounds.

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If Arsenal want the level of dominance they believe they are capable of, the left wing still appears to be a position that needs upgrading. Bradley Barcola is one of the most attractive names on the market, though he is reportedly keen on joining Liverpool. Paris Saint-Germain are said to want around $196 million (€170 million, £145 million), a figure far beyond what Liverpool have offered so far.

Marcus Rashford is another possibility. Last season, while serving as a versatile backup to Lamine Yamal and Raphinha at Barcelona, he produced 28 goals and assists across all competitions. Rafael Leão remains another name in circulation after telling AC Milan officials: “I’ve already spoken with the club.” Jack Grealish, meanwhile, is working through an injury-related absence from Manchester City’s preseason tour, but his future remains uncertain after last summer’s loan move.

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Real Madrid weigh up their decision after Fulham move for Gonzalo García and César Palacios

Real Madrid’s Fulham deal for Gonzalo García and César Palacios may solve one problem but create another.

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Real Madrid have reportedly sanctioned the sale of back-up striker Gonzalo García and Castilla talent César Palacios to Fulham in a combined deal worth $57.4 million (€50 million).

According to The Athletic, Gonzalo is valued at $46.1 million (€40 million), while Palacios accounts for $11.5 million (€10 million). Both agreements also contain a 30% sell-on clause.

The pair are said to be “keen” on linking up with their former manager in the Premier League, and they would arrive as Fulham’s first two additions of the summer. Swedish forward Jonah Kusi-Asare has also made a permanent move after his loan spell from Bayern Munich last season.

Interest in Gonzalo had been building across Europe since his breakthrough at the Club World Cup last summer, but Real Madrid were reluctant to let go of the No. 9, a player who drew comparisons with club legend Raúl.

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Even so, his role became increasingly limited. Alonso and Arbeloa both restricted his minutes last season, and he started only nine La Liga matches. When Kylian Mbappé was injured later in 2025-26, Gonzalo was not even the first choice to step in, with Brahim Díaz instead used up top alongside Vinícius Júnior.

Despite the reduced opportunities, the Castilla product still finished with eight goals, including six in La Liga. His movement, finishing and work rate stood out whenever he featured, though those chances were rare, especially without Endrick involved.

Endrick is now back at the Bernabéu and wearing the No. 9 after a productive loan at Lyon. He registered eight goals and eight assists in 21 appearances for the French side and is expected to provide cover for Mbappé next season under José Mourinho.

From Real Madrid’s perspective, moving on from Gonzalo while Fulham were prepared to pay $46.1 million is understandable, particularly with reports of Yan Diomande potentially arriving for a club-record $153.8 million (€135 million).

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Still, the long view may look different. Real Madrid’s attack often lacked a natural centre-forward last season, and in 2026 they scored more than twice in only eight of 31 matches. The side missed a striker capable of attacking crosses and making decisive box runs, leaving the frontline heavily tilted toward Vinícius Jr on the left and Mbappé in central spaces.

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