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Newcastle United

Supercomputer Forecasts West Ham Relegation Risk After Newcastle Defeat

After a VAR controversy and a poor opening 20 minutes, West Ham’s relegation risk is high. at 93.83%

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A predictive model has dramatically raised the pressure on West Ham United after their defeat at St. James’ Park. A contentious VAR decision and a ragged opening 20 minutes on Tyneside left the visitors chasing the game and provided the context for a result that has altered survival projections.

Newcastle produced one of their better home performances in a difficult season, while West Ham offered a return to their early-season inconsistency. The hosts raced into a 2–0 lead through Nick Woltemade and William Osula, leaving the Hammers on the back foot. Taty Castellanos produced a superb finish to give a brief window for recovery, but West Ham never found the level required and fell short.

The model’s table assigns clear probabilities to the bottom of the table. Tottenham are shown with 38 actual points, a predicted points total of 40.55 and a relegation chance of 6.17%. West Ham sit on 36 actual points with a predicted 37.49 and a 93.83% chance of relegation. Burnley (R) and Wolves (R) are listed with 21 and 19 actual points respectively, predicted points of 22.71 and 20.26, and both carry 100% relegation probabilities.

For Tottenham supporters there was relief amid lingering frustration. Fans left the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium feeling they had missed a chance to pull further clear, despite holding on for a point against Leeds. Roberto De Zerbi’s side now require a single point from their remaining fixtures to secure safety.

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Nuno Espírito Santo’s team face an uphill battle to avoid the drop. The report notes West Ham’s issues with set-up, sloppiness and lack of intensity out of possession as factors that accelerated their decline on the day. With Chelsea at Stamford Bridge and other demanding fixtures to come, Tottenham’s remaining matches will determine whether the small relegation risk becomes academic.

Arsenal

Guimarães Responds After Goal and Away-Day Taunts at Sunderland

Guimarães answered Sunderland taunts, scored his first Arsenal goal, and earned Arteta’s praise.

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Bruno Guimarães marked a personal moment on Saturday by answering back to Sunderland supporters after scoring his first goal for Arsenal. The midfielder had already been the target of pre-match abuse on his return to the stadium, where fans labelled him a “fat rat” because of his Newcastle United past.

After the match, Guimarães took to Instagram and addressed the taunts directly. Writing alongside a nod to the insult, he posted: “The fat rat wishes you a nice weekend,” before adding: “They know what they are.”

The result clearly carried extra weight for the Brazilian. Although an away match at Sunderland is not usually among the biggest fixtures on Arsenal’s schedule, it has long had a stronger meaning for Guimarães because of what happened during his time at Newcastle.

Sunderland completed the league double over Newcastle last season, a run that included Guimarães playing the full 90 minutes in a 1–0 defeat at the Stadium of Light in December 2025. He then missed the return fixture, a 2–1 loss, through injury. As Newcastle captain last season, those results would have left a mark.

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This time, however, Guimarães left with a sense of revenge and a performance that drew praise from Mikel Arteta. The Arsenal manager spoke warmly about the midfielder’s influence after the final whistle.

“Unbelievable, but again the personality that he has, and this was a special game for him as well, what it means for him,” Arteta reflected after the final whistle.

“How he grabs the game, making decisions that he’s made … the goal was incredible, and the assist as well to Bukayo [Saka] to put him through. I’m really impressed with him.”

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Aston Villa

Premier League Gameweek 4 predictions: derby day heads the weekend card

A full set of Gameweek 4 score predictions, including the Manchester derby and Arsenal’s trip.

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The first midweek stretch of the season has already brought Champions League and Carabao Cup action, and the Premier League schedule now tightens again around Gameweek 4.

Sunday’s Manchester derby is the clear centrepiece, but there is plenty elsewhere to weigh up, from Chelsea and Liverpool enjoying home advantage to Arsenal facing a testing trip away from home.

Here is a revised look at how the weekend may unfold, based strictly on the evidence from recent form, results and context in the draft.

Aston Villa are tipped to edge Nottingham Forest 2-1, with both sides still searching for their first league win and Villa Park likely to favour the home team. Bournemouth and Brentford could cancel each other out in a 1-1 draw, while Chelsea are expected to make short work of Hull and win 3-0 as their attack meets a defence that has impressed but may not be able to sustain that level.

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Crystal Palace are backed to beat Ipswich 2-1 after a timely lift in form, and Liverpool are forecast to defeat Fulham 3-1, with the hosts carrying momentum into the fixture. Tottenham and Everton look set for a 1-1 draw, a result that would fit the recent frustrations around Spurs and the unbeaten start made by the visitors.

Arsenal are predicted to keep their perfect start going with a narrow 1-0 win at Sunderland, while Brighton are expected to leave Coventry with a 3-1 victory. The weekend’s biggest game, Man Utd against Man City, is called as another 1-1 draw, reflecting uncertainty on both sides despite City’s winning run.

Monday closes with Leeds against Newcastle, a meeting that could finish 2-2 after both clubs have shown enough going forward to suggest another open contest.

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Manchester United

Lewis Hall contract development complicates Manchester United’s left-back plans

Hall’s new Newcastle deal leaves Manchester United facing a tougher search for a left back.

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Manchester United may need to look elsewhere after a fresh development involving Newcastle United left back Lewis Hall, who has reportedly agreed a new deal at St James’ Park.

Hall had been the leading option for United, but Newcastle were always clear that he was not available. United examined alternatives as well, including Barcelona’s Alejandro Balde and Manchester City’s Rayan Aït-Nouri, yet the conditions attached to those possible moves were not attractive enough and the club stepped away.

The situation has now shifted further against United. Hall was said to be open to a move, but The Times reports that United’s enquiry came at roughly the same time Newcastle were already “progressing” in talks over a new contract that includes a substantial pay increase. That would place Hall among the “best paid” players in the squad.

The agreement is understood to be a five-year contract, extending his previous deal by two seasons. His former deal had been due to run until the end of the 2028-29 campaign, while the new arrangement lasts until 2031.

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Newcastle were not under pressure to sell. Their summer sales of Anthony Gordon, Sandro Tonali and Bruno Guimarães gave them financial strength, but Hall’s contract situation meant there was still no urgency. With five years now separating him from free agency, their leverage in any future talks only improves. In theory, his valuation can rise further.

United could still make another approach, but persuading Newcastle to accept around $81 million (£60 million) within the next two years looks increasingly difficult. Marc Cucurella remains the most expensive left back in Premier League history after his 2022 move from Brighton & Hove Albion to Chelsea, a deal worth up to £63 million.

Hall remains a rare combination of present value and long-term potential. At 22, he is young enough to be viewed as an investment, yet already among the best left backs in England. If his progress continues in a younger Newcastle side doing well under new manager Matthias Jaissle, he could be in line to start for England at Euro 2028.

The other names United considered this summer did not offer the same balance. Balde and Aït-Nouri both sit behind at least one natural left back at their clubs, while Jorge Salinas has limited senior experience despite his breakout season in La Liga 2 for Racing Santander in 2025-26. Antonee Robinson would have provided only short-term cover.

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