Analytics & Stats
Opta Supercomputer: Tight Premier League Relegation Picture After Tottenham Defeat
Opta’s model predicts a close relegation battle: Leeds, Tottenham, Forest and West Ham all involved
The relegation battle in the 2025/26 Premier League tightened significantly after Tottenham Hotspur’s 3-1 defeat to Crystal Palace. Positive results for West Ham United (a 1-0 win over Fulham) and Nottingham Forest (a 2-2 draw at Manchester City) left both clubs level on 28 points and intensified the fight at the bottom.
Leeds United remain precarious. Daniel Farke’s side sit 15th, just three points clear of the current relegation group, making this a contest that could shift quickly.
Opta’s supercomputer produces the following projection for the bottom six:
– Leeds: current 31 points, expected 42.09, relegation chance 8.09%
– Tottenham: current 29 points, expected 40.04, relegation chance 16.10%
– Nottingham Forest: current 28 points, expected 39.08, relegation chance 26.88%
– West Ham: current 28 points, expected 37.49, relegation chance 49.53%
– Burnley: current 19 points, expected 27.07, relegation chance 99.36%
– Wolves: current 16 points, expected 24.62, relegation chance 99.92%
Wolverhampton Wanderers have improved form after a draw with Arsenal and successive wins over Aston Villa and Liverpool, but the supercomputer underlines that their season was effectively over months ago, with the club not recording a victory until the 20th game. Burnley sit 10 points adrift; Opta’s model projects only eight more points for the Clarets and expects their return to the Championship to be confirmed well before the final day.
The model largely maintains the current ordering and gives West Ham the highest chance of relegation among the quartet fighting to avoid the drop into the second tier. Forest are forecast to finish two points clear of the relegation places, with Tottenham projected to reach 40.04 points and stand as the final side to reach the 40-point threshold. Opta assigns a 16.10% chance of relegation to Igor Tudor’s side, a near doubling of their previous prediction before Thursday’s defeat. The fixture between Tottenham and Forest on March 22 now carries clear significance for both clubs.
Analytics & Stats
Why Chelsea’s New Contract for Moises Caicedo Is Fully Earned
Caicedo signs a new Chelsea deal; his fitness, interceptions and passing justify the club’s move….
Chelsea have moved quickly to secure another of their core players with a significant new contract for Moises Caicedo, following a recent deal for Reece James. The club acted while there is uncertainty over the future of midfield partner Enzo Fernández, making the decision straightforward from a sporting perspective.
Caicedo, 24, framed the move himself: “I am so happy to have extended my contract at Chelsea ,” Caicedo enthused of his new deal. “I believe in this team, this club and I know we’re going in the right direction. We’ve only just begun together.
“There is still a lot more to achieve, and I’m very hungry to keep improving every day. I want to win more trophies with Chelsea and give everything for this club and for the fans.”
Beyond the headline fee that first landed him at the club, Chelsea’s faith is grounded in availability and output. Durability is vital for a box-to-box midfielder tasked with covering vast areas and recovering possession, and Caicedo’s three seasons in blue show remarkable consistency.
Season totals and squad rankings for minutes are revealing. In 2023–24 he logged 3,899 minutes and finished second in the squad. The 2024–25 campaign produced 4,289 minutes and the same squad ranking. For 2025–26 he had 3,454 minutes and sat third in the squad. *Minutes accurate as of April 17, 2026.
His on-field impact has evolved beyond numbers alone. Weighed down early by a $147 million (£115 million) price tag, he answered critics with defensive authority, including a club first: in October 2024 he became the first Chelsea midfielder in six years to record seven interceptions in a Premier League game against Newcastle United. By November he was the first midfielder in Europe’s top five leagues to exceed 20 interceptions, 30 successful tackles and 50 duels won, and at the time of the contract announcement he led the Premier League for interceptions and ranked sixth across Europe’s top divisions.
Caicedo also contributes to possession: he is one of just three Premier League midfielders this season with over 90 percent pass accuracy. His influence was recognised in 2024–25 when he won both the club’s Player of the Season award and the Players’ Player of the Season prize.
Current manager Liam Rosenior underlined the case: “For me, Moisés is one of the best defensive midfield players, if not the best defensive midfield player, in world football,” he proclaimed. “That’s because of his intelligence, his physicality, his technical quality, and how he understands the game.”
Analytics & Stats
How the Premier League Slows the Game: A Ranking of Time-Wasting When Leading
Leeds are the slowest to restart when protecting leads; Arsenal also rank highly in delays. 2025/26.
Professional football demands entertainment but also rewards results, and that tension is most visible in how teams manage dead-ball restarts when protecting a lead. The Times has produced a detailed breakdown of how long each Premier League club takes across corners, direct free-kicks, indirect free-kicks, goal kicks and throw-ins while winning. The analysis ranks Leeds United as the club that, on average, takes the most time to restart when defending a lead.
Leeds are particularly deliberate over throw-ins and direct free-kicks. Managers have noticed: Daniel Farke has famously complained about opponents’ time-wasting, most notably after both games against Manchester City. At Leeds, long launches from Ethan Ampadu are a frequent sight in the final third, and Anton Stach has already rattled in three set-piece goals this season.
Promoted Burnley also feature near the top of the list for slowdown when protecting a lead, a pattern that fits with clubs trying to preserve scarce advantages. Arsenal’s presence among the higher-ranked teams will attract scrutiny given their position at the top of the table. The Gunners are unusually slow across several restart types and are the only team to sit in the top half of the division for time spent on all five restart categories.
Fabian Hürzeler captured the frustration felt by rivals after a tight loss to Arsenal. “Only one team tried to play football,” the young German coach sighed.
“I ask you one question,” Hürzeler posed to assembled media. “Did you see in a Premier League game a goalkeeper going down three times? You can’t control these kind of things … therefore the Premier League has to find a rule.”
Arsenal’s restart ranks while leading read: Corner 2nd, Direct Free-Kick 6th, Indirect Free-Kick 9th, Goal Kick 4th, Throw-In 8th. By contrast Manchester City rank: Corner 17th, Direct Free-Kick 2nd, Indirect Free-Kick 20th, Goal Kick 10th, Throw-In 18th. City, Liverpool and Chelsea are among the five quickest clubs at getting the ball back into play, alongside Brighton. “No one recognizes it,” Hürzeler seethed, “but when Arsenal have a corner and they are leading, sometimes they spend over a minute just to take a corner.”
The issue has drawn attention at club level and from governing bodies, with broader rule changes under consideration ahead of the summer World Cup.
Analytics & Stats
United’s scoring depth underpins improved attack in troubled 2024–25 campaign
United’s 2024-25 rise is built on summer signings and a wide spread of Premier League scorers indeed
Manchester United’s principal issue in a historically poor 2024–25 season was a failure to score enough goals. The defence was not flawless, but persistent problems in front of goal left the team exposed.
United will finish this campaign with more Premier League goals than in any season since 2020–21 (73), when Ole Gunnar Solskjær oversaw a second-place finish. So far in the Premier League this season, only Manchester City (63) and Arsenal (62) have outscored United. The upturn is not solely a post-January phenomenon under Michael Carrick. The improvement was already being seen under Ruben Amorim—the team scored two or more goals in 10 of the 20 league matches prior to the Portuguese’s dismissal in January.
A clear factor has been last summer’s recruitment. Matheus Cunha, acquired from Wolverhampton Wanderers; Bryan Mbeumo, from Brentford; and Benjamin Šeško, from RB Leipzig, are not producing world-class numbers yet, but they have combined for 35 goals and assists in season one. That contribution, alongside captain Bruno Fernandes’s prolific rate of assists and Casemiro chipping in with a surprising eight-goal haul, including a bullet header in United’s 2–1 loss to Leeds on Monday, has reshaped the team’s attacking profile.
Where United stand out is the spread of scorers. In the Premier League specifically, the Red Devils have five different players who have scored seven or more goals this season: Bryan Mbeumo (9), Benjamin Šeško (9), Casemiro (8), Bruno Fernandes (8), Matheus Cunha (7). That lack of dependence on a single individual matters when injuries are always a threat.
By contrast, Erling Haaland has scored 35% of Manchester City’s entire Premier League output and only one other City player, Phil Foden, has reached seven goals in the competition. Chelsea have three players with seven or more Premier League goals, while Liverpool and Arsenal have only one each. For United, a wider distribution of goals offers a practical foundation even amid a season of broader difficulties.
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