Opta’s supercomputer has maintained a clear preference for Arsenal as the title run-in tightens following Saturday’s fixtures. The model assigns Arsenal 81.52 predicted points from their current 73 and a 70.85% chance of winning the title. Manchester City, on 70, are forecast to finish on 79.35 points with a 29.15% chance.

Mikel Arteta warned there would be “plenty more strife to come” after his side’s win, and he insisted the Newcastle match was “Game One” of a five-match shootout. Opta’s projection appears to value remaining fixtures as much as form: Arsenal still face two of the current bottom four, plus Crystal Palace and Fulham, while City’s run includes Everton, Brentford, Bournemouth and a final day trip to Aston Villa.

The supercomputer also sees the Champions League places effectively settled. Manchester United, Liverpool and Aston Villa — each on 58 points — are predicted to finish on 65.75, 63.99 and 64.27 respectively, with qualification chances above 96% for all three.

Europa and Conference places are less clear. Brighton lead the models for sixth with a projected 56.41 points and a 44.69% likelihood of finishing sixth. Bournemouth, Chelsea, Brentford, Fulham and Everton remain in contention but are given substantially lower chances.

At the other end, Burnley and Wolves are confirmed as relegated in the projections with 100% probabilities. Leeds and Nottingham Forest are given minimal relegation risk, while West Ham and Tottenham occupy the precarious middle. Opta gives West Ham a 38.26% relegation probability and Tottenham a 58.57% chance. The draft weekend drama left Spurs briefly out of the drop zone on April 26 before events at other grounds swung matters back: João Palhinha’s winning goal at Molineux and Everton’s late equalizer earlier in the day were followed by Callum Wilson’s winner for West Ham, ensuring his side remained two points clear of Tottenham.

Opta’s forecast narrows the gap between the top two to two predicted points, underscoring how small margins over the final fixtures may decide the title.

Manchester City sit top of the Premier League for the first time since August after leapfrogging Arsenal, ending the Gunners’ spell at the summit. Both sides are level on 70 points and a +37 goal difference, but City have scored 66 goals to Arsenal’s 63, which places the Citizens ahead on goals scored.

City’s midweek victory also confirmed Burnley’s relegation to the Championship. That leaves the drop battle focused on Leeds United, Nottingham Forest, West Ham United and Tottenham Hotspur. Leeds snatched a point against Bournemouth on Wednesday evening as they move toward safety.

Opta’s supercomputer has updated its final-table projections following City’s win. The model still favours Arsenal to win the title, predicting the Gunners will finish on 80.75 points with a 66.38% title probability. Manchester City are forecast to finish on 79.17 points with a 33.62% chance. The projected gap of 1.58 points underlines how small any margin for error now is for both contenders.

The model’s view of European qualification is similarly decisive. Aston Villa and Manchester United are expected to finish with about 66 points each and both have better than 98% odds of qualifying for the Champions League. Liverpool are predicted to join them with roughly 62.83 expected points and a 91.04% chance. Brighton & Hove Albion retain a slim 6.42% chance to reach the Champions League, while Bournemouth are projected to finish around 54.63 points and appear likely to settle for a Conference League place.

Chelsea are slated to finish ninth on 53.83 expected points. That projection follows a run of five consecutive league defeats and the club’s decision to part company with Liam Rosenior.

At the bottom, Leeds are all but safe with a 0.21% relegation chance on 45.68 projected points. Nottingham Forest sit close behind with a 4.27% chance. West Ham and Tottenham remain in the real contest for survival, with the model assigning relegation probabilities of 38.58% and 56.93% respectively. Opta’s projection has Burnley and Wolves confirmed as relegated in its final table.

Chelsea arrive at a rare low. The club has now lost five consecutive league games without scoring, a sequence not seen since 1912, and faces the realistic prospect of missing out on European football next season. That possibility comes as the club contends with what the article describes as the highest annual losses in history.

After Tuesday’s defeat the manager did not mince words. “Unacceptable in every aspect of the game,” he told Sky Sports. “I keep coming out and defending the players, that was indefensible, that performance tonight.

“The manner of the goals we conceded, the duels that we lost. Something has to change drastically right here, right now.

“We need to look in the mirror. I need to look in the mirror. But I can’t keep coming out here and defending some of the things that we’re seeing. The general attitude, spirit was lacking—determination from three or four of the starting 11. That’s nowhere near enough for this club. I can’t come out and lie. I tell the truth. That was an unacceptable performance at every level.”

Suggestions that the manager has lost the dressing room have swirled and he conceded there may be truth in those claims. “It looks that way, I won’t lie,” he said. “That was unacceptable. [But] I don’t feel there’s a disconnect between me and the players. We work very closely with them in training, in individual meetings, team meetings. We are giving everything to the players. There is a lack of spirit, a lack of belief that can create that perspective that makes it look a certain way. I can’t argue with that at the moment because the run we’re on is unacceptable and that performance definitely was as well.”

Center back Trevoh Chalobah defended the players’ effort. “I think the boys were running their socks off,” he disputed. “If you look in the dressing room, everyone is tired. It’s nothing to do with effort. We gave it our all. We got beat today. We ran today.

“The stats are stats. The boys are tired.”

The numbers paint a worrying picture: in each of Chelsea’s 34 Premier League games this season they have covered less ground than opponents, averaging 106.1km per game and sitting bottom of the division. Recruitment choices and a prolonged pursuit of a Brighton-style model are also under scrutiny after more than £287.85 million was spent on transfers from that club and £1.5 billion has been invested in the playing squad. With the transfer window shut and a six-year manager contract in place, the club faces difficult decisions on and off the pitch.