Analytics & Stats
KMI Audit: 25 VAR Errors Reshaped the 2025/26 Title Race, Arsenal the Biggest Beneficiary
KMI lists 25 VAR mistakes in 2025/26. Arsenal gained four points; title trimmed to goal difference .
Since Howard Webb took charge of English referees in 2022 a Key Match Incidents panel has been meeting after each round to review officiating. BBC Sport were given access to the panel’s findings from the 2025/26 season, which record 25 VAR errors, seven more than last season.
The KMI log is clear that these incidents are those which met the “clear and obvious” threshold that Stockley Park should have identified. Working on the assumption that every penalty that should have been awarded would have been converted, the panel’s list changes how results would have stacked up. Arsenal benefit most: the Gunners won four points as a consequence of VAR errors. Manchester City’s points total was not altered in the panel’s reconstruction, though City were affected by individual incidents during the campaign.
Phil Foden was denied a clear penalty in a 2–1 defeat to Newcastle in November, an episode Pep Guardiola would later criticise. The KMI panel judged that complaint to be justified, but City also gained from a missed call in May when Bernardo Silva escaped giving away a penalty for going all WWE on Merlin Röhl.
Manchester United’s final tally includes two points that the panel says were won thanks to a favourable decision which allowed Bryan Mbeumo to handle the ball before Matheus Cunha found the net in a 3–2 win over Nottingham Forest at the end of the season.
Arne Slot spent much of the campaign vocal about perceived bias. “If there’s a VAR intervention or if there’s something that could be left or right [50-50] then the decision goes against us,” the Dutch boss moaned after Benjamin Šeško’s controversial strike for United was allowed in May. The KMI panel did not deem Šeško’s goal to meet the threshold of an error because no conclusive footage could be found.
Liverpool’s sole KMI-listed mistake came on the opening day when Marcos Senesi was not sent off for Bournemouth after handling the ball; Liverpool won that match 4–2. Three of Arsenal’s eight 1–0 wins were aided by VAR mistakes, including Viktor Gyökeres’s penalty against Everton at Hill Dickinson, where Everton should have had a spot kick for William Saliba’s swipe. David Moyes declined to elaborate after that game. “I’d like to,” Moyes shrugged, “but I’d probably be fined.” Fabian Hürzeler also protested after Brighton’s loss to Arsenal when Gabriel Martinelli escaped punishment for a tug on Mats Wieffer.
Analytics & Stats
What Chelsea Can Take From Xabi Alonso’s Leverkusen Start
Chelsea’s defensive issues under Alonso echo the early Leverkusen struggles that later turned around.
Chelsea’s opening spell under Xabi Alonso has already prompted scrutiny, largely because the side have made games far more open than they would like. After six matches, they have conceded 12 goals, a tally better only than Crystal Palace, Coventry City and Ipswich Town in the Premier League. The figures point to a team producing excitement, but also one that is leaving too much behind the ball.
That is not unfamiliar territory for Alonso. When he arrived at Bayer Leverkusen on Oct. 5, 2022, the club were second-bottom in the Bundesliga and had made their worst start to a season in more than 40 years. His first game brought an immediate lift, a 4-0 win over Schalke, but the weeks that followed were far less comfortable. Defeats to Porto, Eintracht Frankfurt and RB Leipzig, plus draws with Wolfsburg and Atlético Madrid, meant six games had produced 14 goals conceded.
The criticism was blunt at the time. Simon Rolfes said, “We’re conceding too many goals,” while Alonso’s response was equally direct: “Too many,” was the manager’s blunt admission.
He did not abandon his ideas. Alonso shifted Leverkusen from a four-man defence to a 3-4-2-1, kept faith with the structure and argued that understanding would come with time. “We need to better control when and how we reach the ball,” he said, stressing the need for smarter risks and clearer positioning between teammates.
That patience eventually paid off. His seventh match ended in a 5-0 win over Union Berlin, the start of a five-game winning run that reset the mood and laid the groundwork for the Bundesliga title 18 months later.
Chelsea’s own numbers show a similar balance of threat and fragility. They have scored 18 goals in Alonso’s first six games, compared with Leverkusen’s nine in the same span. Yet the concern remains the same: a side that attacks well, but has not looked solid enough.
After the 2-2 draw with Hull City, Alonso again pointed to the need to cut out a “soft” streak. He kept the message measured when speaking to club media: “It’s early days for us,” he said. “It’s one month together and in one month, we know the idea, the concepts, the mentality, but it’s too early to know it’s already built.
“It will take longer, but we need to learn from everything and from this [against Hull] as well.
“For sure, I think it will come. At the moment, we are not having that feeling we are solid enough. With work and with games, I think it will get better.
“Overall, I think we are attacking better than we are defending. In every aspect, so we know that it’s a big topic and a theme for us.”
Analytics & Stats
The 10 Most Valuable Squads in World Football After the 2026 Summer Window
Squad values after the 2026 summer window show Real Madrid top, with City, PSG and Arsenal close behind.
The summer transfer window has closed, and the latest squad valuations offer a clear picture of which clubs have built the most expensive collections of talent in world football.
Using Transfermarkt’s figures, the 10 most valuable squads now reflect a market shaped by major spending across Europe, with the Premier League again heavily represented among the elite.
Real Madrid sit top of the list with a squad valued at $1.7 billion. A huge share of that figure comes from Kylian Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior and Jude Bellingham, whose combined value is put at $581 million. Their summer business, including Yan Diomande and Marc Cucurella, was followed by further strength added through Ibrahima Konaté, Denzel Dumfries and Bernardo Silva.
Manchester City are close behind on $1.66 billion. Their total has risen after moves for Enzo Fernández, Elliot Anderson and Ayyoub Bouaddi, with the trio carrying a combined valuation of $337 million, less than what City paid to bring them in.
Paris Saint-Germain are third at $1.58 billion, with continental success continuing to lift the value of their squad. João Neves, Vitinha, Ousmane Dembélé, Désiré Doué and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia are each valued at $116 million or more.
Arsenal are fourth on $1.55 billion, ahead of Barcelona on $1.47 billion. Lamine Yamal stands out at Barcelona, where he is worth $255.6 million on his own, alongside Raphinha, Pedri and Pau Cubarsí.
Chelsea are sixth at $1.26 billion, with Bayern Munich seventh on $1.21 billion and Michael Olise valued at $197.5 million. Liverpool follow in eighth on $1.2 billion after the late addition of Bradley Barcola.
Manchester United are ninth at $1.08 billion after their midfield overhaul, while Tottenham Hotspur complete the top 10 on $941.6 million after a particularly active summer in the market.
Analytics & Stats
Opta’s post-window Premier League forecast points to Arsenal on top
Opta’s new forecast has Arsenal first, City second and Tottenham under pressure after the window closed.
The Premier League’s 2026 summer transfer window is shut, and after a record outlay across the division, Opta’s supercomputer has delivered its first full forecast for the season ahead.
Spending across the league reached about $4.4 billion (£3.3 billion), the highest figure on record. Among the headline moves were Morgan Rogers’s switch to Chelsea, Bradley Barcola’s move to Liverpool, and Manchester City’s signings of Elliot Anderson and Enzo Fernández. Arsenal added Bruno Guimarães, while Manchester United rebuilt their midfield with Carlos Baleba, Andrey Santos and Youri Tielemans. Tottenham also strengthened on Deadline Day by bringing in Chelsea pair Mykhailo Mudryk and Tosin Adarabioyo.
Based on current form and the completed window, Opta sees Arsenal as the clear favourite for the title. The Gunners, who have started with wins over Coventry City and Aston Villa and have kept two clean sheets, are projected to finish first with 76.17 points and a 47.40% chance of lifting the trophy again.
Manchester City are forecast to finish second for a second straight season, with 71.39 points and a 27.22% title chance. Chelsea are placed third on 60.41 points, while Liverpool are fourth on 59.76. Manchester United complete the top five on 57.32 points after an uneven start and a quiet end to the transfer window.
The model suggests the top five will also secure Champions League football. Chelsea’s projection is notable after their 10th-place finish in 2025-26, which left them outside European competition this season. Newcastle are next in line, just a point behind Manchester United in sixth, with Brighton and Brentford also in the mix but needing exceptional runs to break into the top five.
At the other end, Tottenham are projected to finish 14th despite adding to their squad, with a 23.83% relegation chance. Nottingham Forest, Sunderland and Ipswich Town sit just above them, while Crystal Palace are highlighted as a side with real danger attached to them, carrying a 29.55% chance of ending up in the Championship.
