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Opta’s Model Makes Arsenal Early Favourites in 2025–26 Title Race

Opta predicts Arsenal as favourites after nine matches; Man City and Liverpool trail in simulations.

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After nine matches Arsenal sit four points clear at the top and Opta’s supercomputer now makes them the probable champions. “It’s very early,” Mikel Arteta told everyone who was willing to listen after Arsenal opened up a four-point lead at the Premier League summit on Sunday. The model weighs historical quirks — none of the last six teams to top the table after nine matches have finished first, Liverpool the most recent in 2019 — alongside a wide range of current data.

Arsenal’s defensive form impressed at the Emirates. David Raya was forced into his first Premier League save since September by Crystal Palace, yet the Eagles could only manage one shot on target. Arsenal themselves had just one goal-bound effort, but Eberechi Eze’s volley supplied the decisive finish. As both Arteta and Jurriën Timber stressed postgame, the Gunners have “a lot” that can be improved. Opta’s 10,000 simulations return Arsenal as champions two-thirds of the time, represented in the model by a 66.35% chance of winning the title.

Manchester City and Liverpool are projected to chase but trail in probability. Opta gives Man City a 14.33% title chance and Liverpool 11.43%. Chelsea (1.77%), Aston Villa (1.14%) and Bournemouth (1.10%) are all long shots by comparison. Bournemouth finished the weekend in second in the table, and their manager reflected caution: “It’s definitely a very good start, but it’s just a start,” Andoni Iraola said.

The supercomputer’s season projections extend beyond the top three. Opta’s predicted top 10 by points lists Arsenal on 80.02, Man City 70.27, Liverpool 69.25, Chelsea 60.20, Aston Villa 59.22, Bournemouth 58.87, Newcastle 58.45, Crystal Palace 57.27, Man Utd 56.76 and Spurs 56.20.

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Manchester United began the campaign with low expectations from the model, which originally forecast a 12th-place finish, yet they have since won three in a row after heavy recruitment. Opta still expects United to finish ninth, and their manager cautioned that fortunes can change quickly: “Three weeks ago, things looked very different, and it can change again just as quickly.”

Analytics & Stats

Salah becomes first player with 152 goal contributions at one Premier League stadium

Salah reached 152 goal contributions at one Premier League ground, overtaking Henry and Rooney. 2026

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Mohamed Salah set a new Premier League benchmark when he reached 152 goal contributions at a single stadium during Liverpool’s 4–1 thumping of Newcastle United on Saturday. That total places him ahead of the previous record of 151, which was held jointly by Thierry Henry and Wayne Rooney at Highbury and Old Trafford respectively.

Salah’s tally at that ground is compiled from 107 goals and 45 assists, producing the 152 figure that now stands alone at the top. Thierry Henry’s total there was 114 goals and 37 assists for 151, while Wayne Rooney recorded 101 goals and 50 assists for the same combined total.

Mohamed Salah

Goals 107

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Assists 45

Total 152

Thierry Henry

Goals 114

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Assists 37

Total 151

Wayne Rooney

Goals 101

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Assists 50

Total 151

Beyond the stadium-specific milestone, Salah remains on course for other career landmarks in the Premier League. He is fourth on the all-time scoring list with 190, 18 behind Wayne Rooney’s 208 and behind Alan Shearer and Harry Kane. Whether he can move up into third depends on form and remaining fixtures: Liverpool have 14 Premier League games left and Salah has scored four goals in 16 outings this season.

Player

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Goals

Alan Shearer 260

Harry Kane 213

Wayne Rooney 208

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Mohamed Salah 190*

Andrew Cole 187

*stats correct as of Feb. 1, 2026

The past 18 months have been full of broken records for Salah and have strengthened his standing in Premier League history. The clock is ticking for Salah and it is not yet clear how long he has left to rack up the numbers. His current contract says 18 months but his tense relationship with manager Arne Slot may suggest otherwise.

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Analytics & Stats

Salah sets unique Premier League record with 152 goal contributions at one ground

Salah reached 152 goal contributions at one ground, surpassing Henry and Rooney’s 151 totals Feb. 1.

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Mohamed Salah became the first player to register 152 goal contributions at a single Premier League stadium during Liverpool’s 4–1 thumping of Newcastle United on Saturday. That total moves him past the previous high of 151, a mark held jointly by Thierry Henry and Wayne Rooney at Highbury and Old Trafford respectively.

Salah’s landmark is the product of sustained output for Liverpool over several seasons. The numbers at that ground break down as 107 goals and 45 assists, producing a combined total of 152. By comparison, Thierry Henry recorded 114 goals and 37 assists for 151, while Wayne Rooney had 101 goals and 50 assists, also 151.

Salah

Goals

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Assists

Total

Mohamed Salah

107

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45

152

Thierry Henry

114

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37

151

Wayne Rooney

101

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50

151

Beyond this stadium-specific record, Salah is also tracking career scoring milestones in the league. He sits fourth on the all-time Premier League scorers list on 190, 18 behind Wayne Rooney’s 208 return and behind Alan Shearer and Harry Kane. Whether he can climb into third remains an open question given Liverpool have 14 Premier League matches left and Salah has scored four goals in 16 appearances this season.

Player

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Goals

Alan Shearer

260

Harry Kane

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213

Wayne Rooney

208

Mohamed Salah

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190*

Andrew Cole

187

*stats correct as of Feb. 1, 2026

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The past 18 months have been full of broken records for Salah, reinforcing his standing in Premier League history. The clock is ticking for Salah and it is not yet clear how long he has left to rack up the numbers. His current contract says 18 months but his tense relationship with manager Arne Slot may suggest otherwise.

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Analytics & Stats

Neville Criticises Amorim as Mainoo Rises in Carrick’s Midfield Plan

Neville slams Amorim’s handling of Mainoo as Carrick’s system brings midfield balance for United plus

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Gary Neville used blunt language to describe how Kobbie Mainoo was managed at the start of the season, arguing the midfielder was mishandled before finding form under Michael Carrick.

“I must admit, I never liked the handling of Mainoo,” Neville said on the new episode of Stick to Football, accusing Ruben Amorim of damaging the player when it became clear he would not be selected alongside Bruno Fernandes. “I thought it was rubbish,” he added. “It killed him publicly. And then he never put him in the team at all, apart from [against] Grimsby. That was nearly pushing a talented player out of the club before he even really had a chance to perform. You look at him now in these two matches, you think, how could that be? How could [Manuel] Ugarte [be picked ahead of him]?”

Roy Keane welcomed Mainoo’s recent performances. “You couldn’t ask for any more,” he said, adding that the overall turnaround had been “brilliant.” He also warned that conclusions should be cautious given the sample size: “It is only two games,” he warned, wanting to see more.

Paul Scholes praised the renewed midfield balance once Carrick adjusted the system to include both Mainoo and Fernandes while Casemiro remained at No. 6. “Kobbie and Fernandes, they make your team play football,” Scholes said. “When they had just been doing it with Fernandes, they sent [one] to play. He didn’t really have anyone to play with. Now, Kobbie’s also got that ability to play with someone. It makes a big difference.”

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Statistical snapshot from the two recent matches (Man City, Arsenal):
Minutes Played: 90, 90
Rating (Out of 10): 7.5, 6.9
Touches: 51, 54
Passing Accuracy: 91%, 86%
Passes into Final Third: 1, 4
Chances Created: 0, 2
Defensive Contributions: 9, 6

Mainoo’s club revival raises questions about his international prospects. The 20-year-old was instrumental as England reached the Euro 2024 final and has the opportunity to force his way back into the national squad for the World Cup if his run of form continues.

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