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Opta Projection Puts Manchester United Closer to Relegation Than Champions League Hope

Opta’s 10,000-run model places United with 10.95% relegation risk and slim hopes of Champions League.

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Opta’s supercomputer, which uses advanced metrics to rate each club before simulating the remaining fixtures 10,000 times, presents a sobering set of probabilities for Manchester United. The model gives United a 0.18% chance of winning the Premier League, a 4.18% chance of qualifying for the Champions League and a 3.15% chance of reaching the Europa League. By contrast, relegation is projected in 10.95% of simulations. Data via Opta. Correct as of Sept. 14, 2025.

The statistical outlook reflects a difficult start to the season on the field. After an encouraging yet fruitless defeat to Arsenal, United were held to a 1–1 draw by Fulham. A humiliating Carabao Cup second-round exit to Grimsby Town preceded the club’s only win of the campaign so far, a 3–2 victory against Burnley secured by a stoppage-time penalty from Bruno Fernandes.

Opta’s projection identifies Burnley as the side most likely to be relegated this season, returning to the second tier in 52.23% of simulations. Wolverhampton Wanderers follow at 50.76%, Sunderland at 46.02%, Leeds United at 44.92% and West Ham United at 36.06%. Aside from those five clubs, only Fulham and Nottingham Forest are deemed more likely to be relegated than Manchester United.

The model also notes that Brentford, despite a summer exodus that saw the departure of their manager, captain, goalkeeper and leading scorer, who just so happened to join United, are nonetheless projected to have a better chance of staying in the division than United.

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The Opta projection is a probabilistic snapshot based on current performance and underlying metrics. With the 2025/26 season still in its opening phase, the simulation highlights how a combination of poor results and narrow victories has produced an unexpectedly high relegation probability for a club of United’s stature.

Analytics & Stats

Slot Poised to Set Liverpool Record for Quickest 100 Premier League Points

Arne Slot needs one point to become Liverpool’s fastest manager to 100 Premier League points on Sat.

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Arne Slot sits one point short of a milestone no Liverpool manager has yet reached so quickly in the club’s top flight. After 43 Premier League games, Slot has accumulated 99 points and needs a single point from Saturday’s trip to Crystal Palace to reach 100.

Reaching a century of points at such speed would rewrite the club record table. Historic benchmarks show Kenny Dalglish reached 100 points in 48 games, David Ashworth did so in 56, and Jürgen Klopp, Bob Paisley and Joe Fagan each reached the mark in 57 games. Slot’s current total after 43 games places him within striking distance of that fastest-to-100 figure and gives him several fixtures in which to secure the final point.

Kenny Dalglish reached 100 points for Liverpool in 48 games, meaning Slot needs just one draw from upcoming games against Palace, Chelsea, Manchester United and Brentford to make the record his own. A single draw would be enough to eclipse Dalglish’s benchmark and set a new standard for the club in the Premier League era.

Klopp’s own landmark came in a different context. The former manager reached 100 points in 57 games but later claimed the fastest to 300 points record from Dalglish, doing so in 146 games compared to Dalglish’s 150. Slot’s early return to Liverpool suggests he is on track to challenge such long-term records as well.

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Slot’s managerial record before joining Liverpool offers context for his current form. During his time with Feyenoord, he accumulated 307 points across 135 Eredivisie games. That haul produced one league title in 2022–23, a success he matched in the Premier League in just one year at Liverpool. The immediate target now is modest: secure one point and become Liverpool’s quickest manager to reach 100 Premier League points.

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Analytics & Stats

Interpreting Chelsea’s Record With and Without Cole Palmer

Chelsea’s record without Cole Palmer looks stronger on paper, but context and sample size matter…

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Cole Palmer’s arrival at Stamford Bridge at the start of the 2023–24 season quickly made him central to Chelsea’s attacking play. A persistent groin injury has limited his minutes at the start of the current term and now risks keeping him out in the coming days, weeks and perhaps months.

On raw numbers Chelsea’s results without Palmer look stronger. Since his debut on September 2, 2023, the Blues have played 17 matches without him and won 14. This season they have already won all three fixtures played without him, beating West Ham United, Fulham and Lincoln City.

There are only three matches without Palmer in which Chelsea failed to win: two Premier League defeats to Arsenal and last season’s Carabao Cup fourth round loss at Newcastle United. In each of those three fixtures the team did not score.

Context is essential. Palmer was omitted from Chelsea’s Europa Conference League league phase squad last term and consequently missed six wins against lower-ranked European opponents. Noah, Astana and Shamrock Rovers were among those beaten without him. The same pattern appears in cup competitions, where Palmer missed victories over Morecambe, Barrow and Lincoln. Seventeen matches without him is a limited sample.

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Breaking down appearances and outcomes underlines the imbalance in sample size. Palmer has made 101 appearances for Chelsea and been on the winning side 55 times, with 20 draws and 26 losses, producing a win percentage of 54.5 percent. By contrast, Chelsea’s win percentage in the 17 games without him is 82.4 percent.

Those figures show a clear numerical gap but do not negate the practical reasons for the disparity. Chelsea are more likely to rest Palmer against lower-level opposition, which skews the record. The club will understandably monitor his fitness closely, while also weighing the statistical limitations of a small sample when assessing the impact of any absence.

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All Manchester United Centurions: Fernandes Reaches 100 as Rooney Stays Top

Fernandes hits 100 for United; Rooney leads with 253 goals. Rashford is 13th on the club list. Read.

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Scoring 100 goals for a single club is a rare milestone at Manchester United and Bruno Fernandes has now joined that select group. The Portuguese captain reached his century despite a difficult period for the club, moving past the likes of David Beckham, Eric Cantona and Dwight Yorke in United’s goalscoring charts. Eighteen players still sit ahead of him.

Marcus Rashford is the only current United player among the centurions, although he is currently on loan at Barcelona and looks unlikely to play for the Red Devils again. Rashford has scored 138 goals for his boyhood club and is 13th on the all-time list, ahead of centurions Ole Gunnar Solskjær, Andy Cole and Brian McClair.

Tommy Taylor holds the best goals-per-game ratio among the hundred-goal scorers with 0.69 strikes per outing. David Herd managed 143 goals in 261 matches, while Ruud van Nistelrooy produced 150 goals in 219 appearances, 149 of which came from inside the penalty box. Cristiano Ronaldo sits between those two with 145 goals across two spells; it took him 346 matches to reach his century.

Longevity helped both Paul Scholes and Ryan Giggs climb into the century club. Scholes, a midfielder, finished with 155 goals in 716 games and reached his 100th against Wolverhampton Wanderers at Molineux in March 2010. Giggs amassed 168 goals in 963 appearances, placing him seventh in the club’s list.

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Several of United’s historical forwards occupy the top positions. Dennis Viollet scored 173 goals in 284 outings, Jack Rowley managed 190, George Best 179 and Denis Law 243 in 405 matches. Bobby Charlton sits second with 245 goals in 746 appearances. Wayne Rooney tops the list, with 253 goals across 559 appearances.

The club’s century-makers range from midfielders and long-serving icons to prolific strikers, illustrating different routes to triple figures at Old Trafford. Fernandes’s inclusion continues a tradition that spans the club’s most celebrated eras.

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