The relegation battle in the 2025/26 Premier League tightened significantly after Tottenham Hotspur’s 3-1 defeat to Crystal Palace. Positive results for West Ham United (a 1-0 win over Fulham) and Nottingham Forest (a 2-2 draw at Manchester City) left both clubs level on 28 points and intensified the fight at the bottom.

Leeds United remain precarious. Daniel Farke’s side sit 15th, just three points clear of the current relegation group, making this a contest that could shift quickly.

Opta’s supercomputer produces the following projection for the bottom six:

– Leeds: current 31 points, expected 42.09, relegation chance 8.09%
– Tottenham: current 29 points, expected 40.04, relegation chance 16.10%
– Nottingham Forest: current 28 points, expected 39.08, relegation chance 26.88%
– West Ham: current 28 points, expected 37.49, relegation chance 49.53%
– Burnley: current 19 points, expected 27.07, relegation chance 99.36%
– Wolves: current 16 points, expected 24.62, relegation chance 99.92%

Wolverhampton Wanderers have improved form after a draw with Arsenal and successive wins over Aston Villa and Liverpool, but the supercomputer underlines that their season was effectively over months ago, with the club not recording a victory until the 20th game. Burnley sit 10 points adrift; Opta’s model projects only eight more points for the Clarets and expects their return to the Championship to be confirmed well before the final day.

The model largely maintains the current ordering and gives West Ham the highest chance of relegation among the quartet fighting to avoid the drop into the second tier. Forest are forecast to finish two points clear of the relegation places, with Tottenham projected to reach 40.04 points and stand as the final side to reach the 40-point threshold. Opta assigns a 16.10% chance of relegation to Igor Tudor’s side, a near doubling of their previous prediction before Thursday’s defeat. The fixture between Tottenham and Forest on March 22 now carries clear significance for both clubs.

Manchester City began March with a 2-2 draw against Nottingham Forest that halted a six-game winning run and left Arsenal seven points clear with City holding a game in hand. The match at the Etihad Stadium produced a sequence of swings in the second half.

Antoine Semenyo opened the scoring after being picked out by Rayan Cherki, the Ghana international virtually unmarked about 10 yards out and guiding the ball with the inside of his foot into the net. Nottingham Forest then produced an unexpected equalizer when Morgan Gibbs-White backheeled a goal after Rúben Dias failed to close his legs near the goal.

Rodri restored the lead just past the hour mark, heading City back in front, but the advantage lasted only until England starter Elliot Anderson produced a brilliant long-range finish to level the match again. Phil Foden was singled out for his role in the build-up to Anderson’s goal, with the report noting he was lackadaisical in defensive duties and remained static as Anderson struck.

The game left points shared and questions over City’s defensive focus at key moments. Individual ratings reflected mixed performances: Gianluigi Donnarumma 5.7, Matheus Nunes 6.7, Rúben Dias 6.9, Marc Guéhi 6.9, Rayan Aït-Nouri 8.1, Rodri 8.3, Phil Foden 7.6, Bernardo Silva (captain) 8.2, Rayan Cherki 8.2, Erling Haaland 6.3 and Antoine Semenyo 7.9. Substitutes included Jérémy Doku (77′ for Foden) 6.7, Abdukodir Khusanov (77′ for Aït-Nouri) 6.1 and Savinho (82′ for Cherki) N/A. Unused subs were James Trafford, John Stones, Nathan Aké, Nico González, Tijjani Reijnders and Omar Marmoush.

Match statistics underlined City’s dominance in possession and chance creation: possession 70% to 30%, expected goals 2.02 to 0.97, total shots 21 to 9, shots on target 7 to 4, big chances 5 to 2 and passing accuracy 92% to 82%. Fouls were 10 for City and 6 for Forest.

A flat showing away at Leeds underlined why supporters have been keen to see Erling Haaland back in the Manchester City front line. Haaland was left out for the trip to Elland Road and watched from the sidelines as Antoine Semenyo netted the only goal of an uncomfortable 1–0 victory.

Nottingham Forest arrive on Wednesday and the central question among fans is simple: will Haaland play? His fitness and selection look set to dominate Pep Guardiola’s pre-match press conference on Tuesday. Until then, the manager’s remarks after the Leeds game are the clearest public indication of the striker’s status.

Asked specifically whether Haaland would be back in time to face Forest, Guardiola’s response on Saturday gave nothing away. “I don’t have any answer right now,” he insisted. “We have four days before Nottingham Forest and after, three days to the FA Cup at Newcastle.” He did, however, offer some reassurance by describing the problem as “not a big issue.”

Guardiola’s approach to covering for Haaland against Leeds surprised some supporters. Omar Marmoush was used as part of the attacking setup. The expensive Egyptian is the only other natural striker in the squad and has been waiting for opportunities in attack, having been forced into accepting the same midfield role occupied by his predecessor, Julián Alvarez, as it quickly became clear there is no displacing a healthy Haaland in the squad.

With minutes and results both at a premium, City must balance the immediate need to secure points with the management of Haaland’s condition across a busy schedule. Guardiola’s comments leave room for optimism, but they also mean definitive confirmation of Haaland’s involvement will have to wait until closer to kick-off.