Manchester City were left to rue another slip as they came away with a point from a 3-3 draw with Everton. “We’re still in it,” Haaland offered to his teammates while processing the chaotic 90 minutes. City sit five points behind the Gunners having played one game fewer, but Pep Guardiola was blunt: “It’s not in our hands.”

Opta’s supercomputer gives Arsenal the clear advantage. The model lists Arsenal on 76 points with an expected 82.30 and title chances of 85.24%. Manchester City are on 71 points with an expected 78.75 and title chances of 14.76%. Arsenal have been favourites for months and were given the edge even after City briefly reclaimed top spot with a win over Burnley in April.

City must now hope Arsenal drop points in at least one of their remaining fixtures against West Ham United, Burnley and Crystal Palace, three sides the Gunners have already beaten in the league this season. Arsenal’s 3-0 win over Fulham on Saturday suggested a straightforward run-in, though that Fulham side had been struck by a roster-wide virus. The north London players carry the weight of three years of second-place finishes as they chase a 22-year wait for top-flight glory.

The calendar also presents challenges for City: four games in 11 days with the FA Cup final included. Guardiola reminded reporters: “We have games left,” and added, “We will see what happens.” He had ceded the title earlier in the season only for his side to fight back.

Elsewhere Opta predicts Manchester United (64 points, expected 68.61) have secured Champions League football, with Liverpool and Aston Villa also highly likely to qualify. Villa, despite recent defeats including a loss to Tottenham that was their fifth in eight league games, remain buoyed by a previous run of 12 wins from 13. “In 35 games, things are very good,” Unai Emery insisted, “and we have the advantage to still be in the top five, but we must continue to be demanding.”

The model also maps a tight battle for sixth and a perilous relegation picture that places Burnley and Wolves as certain to go down and West Ham with a large danger percentage after a miserable weekend.

Arsenal sit in control of the Premier League title race after a 3–0 win over Fulham, but the margins are slim. The Opta supercomputer projects Arsenal to finish on 82.28 expected points from their current 76, giving them a 79.70% chance of being champions. Manchester City, on 70 points, are forecast at 79.30 expected points with a 20.30% title probability.

That six-point advantage is meaningful, yet fragile. On paper, Arsenal are in an imposing position, but City face two fixtures that matter: away at Everton on Monday and then Brentford on Saturday. If City are perfect in those games they can erase the gap, and by the time Arsenal next play in the Premier League the two clubs would be level on games played.

The Opta model also lays out the race for Champions League football. Manchester United, on 61 points and an expected 67.03, are shown with a 100.00% chance of qualifying and can confirm their place with victory over Liverpool on Sunday. Aston Villa and Liverpool are close: Villa sit on 58 points with 64.15 expected and a 99.01% chance, while Liverpool also have 58 points with 64.00 expected and a 98.63% chance. Brighton are projected to finish with 55.17 expected points from 50 now and sit on a 0.69% chance of Champions League qualification. Bournemouth (49, 54.45, 0.51%), Brentford (51, 54.30, 0.51%) and Chelsea (48, 53.79, 0.60%) are all shown outside the automatic certainty but still within reach of European action.

At the bottom, the simulation makes relegation clear for two clubs. Burnley (20 points, 22.74 expected) and Wolverhampton Wanderers (18 points, 21.02 expected) have 100.00% relegation chances and will be replaced in the Championship by Coventry City and Ipswich Town. The final slot remains undecided. Nottingham Forest (39, 44.12, 0.97%) look relatively safe, while West Ham (36, 39.25, 48.78%) and Tottenham (34, 38.70, 50.22%) are in the precarious positions. Tottenham are currently backed for the drop, although victory over Aston Villa in Sunday’s late game would see Roberto De Zerbi’s side climb out of the relegation zone with four games left to play.

Michael Carrick’s tactical change has given Bruno Fernandes room to operate in the right-side pocket behind the front line, and the results are clear. Carrick restored United’s skipper to the No. 10 role after a period in Ruben Amorim’s two-man midfield, and Fernandes says the move has altered his positioning. “I float a lot in that zone there now with Michael,” Fernandes reflected in an interview with Opta. “He doesn’t want me to just be stuck in the middle, so often asks me to find that pocket [of space].”

That positional freedom has put Fernandes on the cusp of two Premier League landmarks with four matches left in the season. He has 19 assists in 2025–26, level with Mesut Özil on the season charts and one behind the all-time single-season mark of 20 set by Thierry Henry and matched by Kevin De Bruyne in 2019–20. No player in the 34-year history of the Premier League has provided more than 20 assists in a single campaign, and Sunday’s derby with Liverpool presents a high-profile chance to close that gap.

Fernandes showed the shift in focus at Brentford, taking no shots as he concentrated on creating. Eventually, Benjamin Šeško finished one of the five chances Fernandes created, taking the skipper to 19 assists and a single assist behind the record.

If Matheus Cunha recovers from a slight hip issue, he is the likeliest direct beneficiary. As Opta note, Cunha has received 19 open-play chances from Fernandes this season—the most chances any player has been provided by a single teammate in the current Premier League campaign.

There is also a set-piece subplot. United’s No. 8 has set the former Real Madrid man up for six Premier League goals this season—another division high—five of which have come from set pieces. Fernandes sits on 10 set-piece assists, one shy of Steven Gerrard’s top-flight record of 11. The midfielder has worked on dead balls and admits the demands have changed: “I will tell you that five years ago, I would go to take a corner and just put the ball into the middle of the box and let’s see if someone gets it,” he revealed. “And nowadays I have to hit a spot, so sometimes it’s even harder to get an assist from a set piece than it actually is in open play.”