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10 FPL Differentials for 2026/27: Hidden Gems Under 5% Ownership

Ten low-owned FPL differentials for 2026/27, covering their upside, fixture runs, minutes risks and the role clues to check before buying.

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Your first FPL draft may need one differential, not ten. The useful picks combine low ownership with a role, fixture run or scoring route that the wider template has missed. The bad picks leave you hoping for minutes.

All ten players below sat under 5% ownership on 9 August 2026, and official FPL listed each one as available. Treat this as a watchlist for the final pre-season matches. Secure starts matter more than a low ownership badge.

£6.0m midfielders with goal threat

Noah Okafor, Leeds, 0.7% owned

Leeds begin at Nottingham Forest before hosting Brentford, visiting Brighton and welcoming Newcastle and Crystal Palace. Managers can play that five-match run without planning an early sale.

The source analysis cited 0.31 non-penalty expected goals per 90 for Okafor last season. That goal threat can beat a £6.0m price, but his cited average of about 55 minutes per appearance explains the low ownership.

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Watch Leeds’ final pre-season line-up and the first press conference. A run of 70-minute starts would make Okafor a useful rotating midfielder. More early substitutions would cap his upside.

Jack Hinshelwood, Brighton, 0.3% owned

Brighton moved Hinshelwood into an advanced role late last season. The source analysis put him near 0.45 expected goals per 90 from around GW30, with more than 82 minutes per match during that spell.

Brighton host Aston Villa in GW1, visit Chelsea, then face Leeds at home and Coventry away. Arsenal at home in GW5 weakens the run for managers planning a GW6 Wildcard.

Pascal Groß costs £5.5m and offers set pieces, possible penalties and safer minutes. Hinshelwood offers more open-play goal threat if he keeps the advanced role. Final pre-season selection should decide which profile earns a midfield slot.

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£6.0m attackers who need stronger minutes evidence

Harvey Barnes, Newcastle, 1.2% owned

Barnes produced 0.33 non-penalty expected goals and 0.13 expected assists per 90 in the source analysis. A left-wing role and a run of starts would give him a high ceiling at £6.0m.

Newcastle host Liverpool and visit Spurs before facing Bournemouth at home, Leeds away and Hull at home. GW3 to GW5 carries the appeal. Official FPL lists Barnes as available, but the manager’s first-choice front line remains the key test.

Keep Barnes on the watchlist until Newcastle show that he owns the left side. The fixtures then give managers a clear entry point.

Rio Ngumoha, Liverpool, 1.6% owned

Ngumoha’s small sample produced 0.22 non-penalty expected goals and 0.33 expected assists per 90 in the source analysis. Substitute appearances against tired defenders may inflate those rates.

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Liverpool visit Newcastle, host Nottingham Forest, travel to Ipswich, host Fulham and visit Bournemouth. The run suits an attacker, but Liverpool can fill the wide roles in several ways.

A £6.0m starter in Liverpool’s attack would demand attention. A string of late cameos would waste a midfield place. Wait for clear selection evidence.

Defenders with routes beyond clean sheets

Daniel Ballard, Sunderland, £5.0m, 3.8% owned

Ballard combines set-piece threat with defensive contribution potential. The source analysis cited 0.10 expected goals and about 11 defensive contributions per 90.

Sunderland start at Ipswich, host Fulham and visit Brentford. Arsenal at home and Manchester City away in GW4 and GW5 create a rough patch. Brighton at home, Bournemouth away, Leeds at home and Coventry away follow.

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Managers with a rotation plan can bench Ballard for the two difficult fixtures. His price still demands secure starts, so check his fitness and Sunderland’s preferred centre-back pairing before the deadline.

Kristoffer Ajer, Brentford, £4.5m, 1.6% owned

Ajer’s source data showed about 9.47 defensive contributions per 90, with stronger numbers at centre-back than at right-back. A central role could put him near the defensive contribution threshold at a useful price.

Brentford host Spurs, visit Leeds, host Sunderland, travel to Bournemouth and host Chelsea. Official FPL lists both Ajer and Sepp van den Berg as available, so managers cannot rely on an injury to create Ajer’s route into the team.

Use Brentford’s final friendly and team news to confirm his position. His value depends on a starting centre-back role.

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£6.5m attackers with explosive upside

Christos Tzolis, Arsenal, 2.6% owned

Arsenal host Coventry in GW1. That fixture puts a starting £6.5m winger on the FPL radar.

The source analysis cited 0.89 non-penalty expected goal involvement per 90 in Tzolis’ previous league, including 0.47 expected assists. It also recorded close to 84 minutes per match. Those figures describe his upside, but Premier League minutes carry more weight now.

Tzolis can attack from the left and deliver set pieces. Declan Rice remains a major set-piece competitor, while Gabriel Martinelli and Arsenal’s other left-sided options create a minutes risk. Require a Community Shield start and positive team news before buying.

Dango Ouattara, Brentford, 1.4% owned

The source analysis gave Ouattara 0.31 non-penalty expected goals and 0.17 expected assists per 90 last season. His cited average of about 71 minutes keeps role security at the centre of the decision.

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Brentford host Spurs, visit Leeds, welcome Sunderland and travel to Bournemouth across the first four Gameweeks. A secure attacking role would make £6.5m attractive in a price bracket with few established options.

Buy Ouattara for repeated penalty-box involvement and enough minutes to turn it into returns. Final pre-season selection should settle the case.

£5.5m midfielders built for defensive points

Ethan Ampadu, Leeds, 1.6% owned

Ampadu offers little goal threat, so his case rests on defensive contributions, clean-sheet points and rare attacking returns. The source analysis cited 11.89 defensive contributions per 90 last season.

Leeds’ opening run gives him five playable fixtures, including Brentford at home in GW2. That can suit an early Bench Boost if Ampadu keeps a 90-minute role.

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He carries less attacking upside than other £5.5m midfielders. Managers who want a stable starter may prefer his defensive route to points.

Mamadou Sangaré, Brentford, 1.3% owned

Sangaré’s previous-league source data included about 14.2 defensive contributions and eight recoveries per 90, plus 0.13 expected goals per 90. Premier League output may fall below those rates.

Brentford must show that he starts and completes matches. A secure role would give him a route to defensive contribution points in fixtures where an attacking midfielder might return appearance points alone.

Pascal Groß offers set pieces, possible penalties and bonus potential at the same price. Sangaré offers the stronger defensive profile. Choose after Brentford confirm his role.

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Build a shortlist, not a squad of punts

Ballard and Ampadu offer the clearest paths to secure minutes, subject to final fitness and selection. Ajer and Sangaré need role confirmation. Okafor, Hinshelwood, Barnes, Ngumoha, Tzolis and Ouattara carry more attacking upside with greater minutes risk.

One well-researched differential can move your squad away from the template. Five punts can create a benching problem before GW1 begins. Pick the player whose role you can explain, whose fixtures fit your plan and whose quiet week will not force a transfer.

The final pre-season line-ups should cut this list down. Minutes will decide which hidden gems deserve a place in your squad.

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GW10 Liverpool picks: Isak up front or Jacquet in defence?

Isak needs a lasting place in your forward line. Jacquet offers cheaper defensive coverage; compare the costs, performance rates and GW14 plan before buying.

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Liverpool give you two useful GW10 transfer routes: commit £9.2m to Isak up front, or buy Jacquet at £5.1m to strengthen your defence. Choose the move that improves your starting XI across the coming fixtures. Buying an attacker because you want Liverpool coverage can leave you paying for a role or scoring rate you have yet to see.

Our preference is Isak if you can afford him without weakening another starter, and Jacquet if you need a defender and have a better use for the extra money Van Dijk would cost. Barcola needs a stronger attacking case at £8.1m. Give Szoboszlai another selection check before buying.

Plan for the Chelsea away game

Liverpool visit Crystal Palace in GW10, host Manchester United in GW11, travel to Everton in GW12 and host Sunderland in GW13. Chelsea away follows in GW14, before home games against Leeds and Spurs in GW15–16.

You can hold a Liverpool purchase beyond four weeks, but account for Chelsea before committing the transfer. A manager who has chosen a GW14 Free Hit can assess that week apart from the regular squad. That is one possible chip plan, rather than a reason to commit the chip to justify a purchase.

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Map the transfer and your GW14 lineup in the We Play FPL planner before spending. You can test future squad drafts and chip plans there; predictions and AI recommendations remain informational, with no guarantee of returns.

Isak needs a lasting place in your forward line

Isak has 0.60 expected goals per 90 minutes (xG/90) and 0.64 expected goal involvements per 90 (xGI/90), with an average of 82.1 min/match. Those season-to-date rates give you a stronger attacking basis for a purchase than the fixture list alone.

At £9.2m, he needs a forward slot you intend to keep. Check the midfielder or defender you would have to downgrade to reach him. Buy if the resulting XI improves across your holding period; wait if you would spend another transfer reversing the funding move after one week.

Keep penalty assumptions out of the calculation. Liverpool’s next taker remains unresolved, so judge the purchase without treating spot kicks as guaranteed extra value.

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Jacquet offers the cheaper defensive route

Jacquet costs £5.1m against Van Dijk’s £6.4m, a £1.3m gap at current purchase prices. Both give you access to the same fixtures. The current performance rates offer little reason to assume Van Dijk will repay that premium.

Jacquet has 1.14 expected goals conceded per 90 (xGC/90), 0.06 xGI/90 and 9.33 defensive contributions per 90 (DefCon/90), with an average of 85.8 min/match. Van Dijk has 1.18 xGC/90, 0.06 xGI/90 and 9.44 DefCon/90, averaging 90.0 min/match.

The small differences in these historical rates do not establish that either defender will score more points over the next month. Defensive-contribution points depend on reaching the match threshold; a per-90 rate does not guarantee them in a particular fixture.

Prefer Jacquet for a fresh purchase if you can use the £1.3m to improve another starter. Van Dijk remains a reasonable choice if you can afford his longer average playing time without compromising the XI. A Van Dijk owner should compare the benefit of spending a transfer on that saving with other squad needs, rather than treating the cheaper option as an instruction to sell.

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Barcola and Szoboszlai need different checks

Barcola costs £8.1m and has 0.32 xGI/90, averaging 73.0 min/match. Buying him requires confidence that he will improve on that attacking rate. The schedule gives him opportunities, but you still need a reason to expect more threat from his role.

Treat him as a punt for a manager willing to accept that uncertainty. Our preference for a fresh attacking purchase is Isak when the forward budget works. These players occupy different FPL positions, so compare the squad changes each route requires alongside their individual numbers.

Szoboszlai costs £6.7m and has 0.47 xGI/90, with an average of 71.9 min/match. Check his next starts and role before committing. His lower price helps with the budget, but you need confidence that he will play the role you are buying him for.

Make the transfer after the selection checks

The GW10 deadline is 6 November at 18:30 UTC. Check Liverpool’s latest fitness news and selections before acting, and leave penalty duty as an uncertainty unless new evidence settles it.

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For a squad that needs a defender, we favour Jacquet and a clear plan for the saving. For a squad with room for a lasting forward upgrade, Isak is the attacking purchase to consider. Keep the rest of your XI and the GW14 lineup in view before choosing either route.

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GW9 budget midfield: Tonali, Enciso or Rudoni?

Tonali offers playing time and defensive contributions, Enciso more attacking involvement, and Rudoni a saving. Match the choice to your planned starts.

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Pick your cheapest playable midfielder around the job he needs to do. At £5.3m, Sandro Tonali offers a strong playing-time record and more defensive contributions than Julio Enciso or Jack Rudoni. Enciso gives you more attacking involvement for another £0.2m. Rudoni costs £4.9m, with a shorter average appearance to weigh against the saving.

We would consider Tonali for a slot that needs dependable playing time, Enciso when attacking returns take priority, and Rudoni when the extra cash improves another starter. Each choice involves a compromise. Decide your planned starts before spending a transfer on a small price difference.

Tonali: playing time with a defensive contribution caveat

Tonali has averaged 87.1 minutes per match for Spurs. His 10.07 defensive contributions per 90 minutes, or DefCon/90, exceed Enciso’s 6.84 and Rudoni’s 7.95. He has the strongest case of the three if you want playing time and a route to extra points through defensive work.

Keep your expectations measured. Across his last six league matches, Tonali recorded 12, 11, 11, nine, 15 and 12 defensive contributions. Those near misses show why you should allow for matches without a defensive contribution return. A season average cannot tell you which side of the scoring threshold he will finish on in a particular fixture.

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He also has the lowest attacking involvement rate in this comparison: 0.21 expected goal involvements per 90 minutes, or xGI/90. You accept less attacking threat in exchange for his playing-time record and defensive contribution rate.

Spurs host Crystal Palace in GW9, visit Leeds in GW10 and host Ipswich Town in GW11. Tonali fits a plan that needs cover across those weeks, provided the final team news supports his selection. His average playing time describes his record so far; it guarantees no future start.

Enciso: pay £0.2m for more attacking involvement

Enciso costs £5.5m and has averaged 80.6 minutes per match for Ipswich Town. At 0.46 xGI/90, he has offered more than twice Tonali’s attacking involvement rate. You pay £0.2m extra for that route to returns while accepting a lower defensive contribution rate and less playing time per appearance.

His immediate fixtures are Hull City away in GW9 and Bournemouth at home in GW10, followed by Spurs away in GW11. Check whether you need him for that third fixture before treating him as a purchase for the whole run.

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We would lean towards Enciso over Tonali if the £0.2m leaves your other plans intact and you want attacking potential from this midfield slot. Expected goal involvements measure season-to-date performance, so avoid reading 0.46 as a forecast for the next match.

Rudoni: the saving comes with a playing-time trade-off

Rudoni costs £0.4m less than Tonali and £0.6m less than Enciso. He has averaged 69.4 minutes per match for Coventry City, alongside 0.52 xGI/90 and 7.95 DefCon/90.

His attacking involvement rate leads this group, but he has played fewer minutes per appearance. Compare the time you expect him to spend on the pitch as well as his per-90 threat. Do not add a permanent penalty role to his buying case while that role remains uncertain.

Coventry host Sunderland in GW9, visit Everton in GW10 and host Crystal Palace in GW11. Rudoni makes sense when you can use those home fixtures and spend the saving on another starter. A cheap substitute you seldom select may be enough; a midfielder you need for several consecutive starts deserves a closer look at playing time.

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Choose the slot before making the transfer

All three have the official FPL midfielder classification and current available status. Availability alone confirms no place in the starting XI. Recheck the team news before the GW9 deadline.

Map out the starts you need and compare the midfield options in We Play FPL, where you can review player statistics and upcoming fixtures side by side. Use that comparison to test whether the saving improves your intended XI.

Our preference depends on the squad: Tonali for his playing-time record and defensive work, Enciso for more attacking involvement at a modest extra cost, or Rudoni to release money for a specific upgrade elsewhere. Keep your current enabler if a sideways move leaves the rest of your team no better off.

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GW9 cheap forwards: Evanilson, Calvert-Lewin, Jackson or Barry?

Evanilson gets our vote for regular starts. Calvert-Lewin and Barry suit planned rotation, while Jackson offers Villa’s six-match run at a higher price.

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Evanilson is our GW9 pick if you need a forward to start through the next fixture run. At £6.2m, he costs £0.1m more than Dominic Calvert-Lewin and £0.5m less than Nicolas Jackson. Calvert-Lewin suits a squad with cover for difficult away matches, Jackson deserves consideration over six Gameweeks, and Thierno Barry offers the cheapest route at £5.6m.

Choose the role before making the transfer. You can accept a difficult fixture on a rotating third forward. You have less room for one when you need him in your XI each week.

Evanilson: our first choice for regular starts

Bournemouth face Leeds at home in GW9, Ipswich away in GW10 and Nott’m Forest at home in GW11. Evanilson gives you a route through those three matches without planning an immediate benching or another transfer.

He has started eight league matches and averages 84.8 minutes per match. His 0.41 xG/90 and 0.13 xA/90 produce 0.54 expected goal involvements per 90. Those season-to-date measures describe the chances he has had and created; they do not promise future returns.

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We prefer him to Jackson when the extra £0.5m matters and you want a forward for the next three deadlines. Bournemouth then visit Fulham before hosting Brighton and Hull in GW13–14, so you can also consider a longer hold.

His selection record supports the purchase, but competition can change. Check the team news before treating eight starts as a guarantee of the ninth.

Calvert-Lewin: plan the bench before buying

At £6.1m, Calvert-Lewin has averaged 85.4 minutes per match and produced 0.47 xG/90 alongside 0.02 xA/90. He also has first penalty priority. You can make a sound case for him when you can choose his starts.

Leeds visit Bournemouth in GW9 and host Spurs in GW10. The matches that demand planning are Chelsea away in GW11 and Man City away in GW13. Between them, Leeds host Coventry in GW12, with Ipswich at home in GW14.

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Name the player who would replace Calvert-Lewin in your XI for those two away trips. If that player has a good fixture and a dependable role, the rotation can work. If you would have to start a doubtful substitute or spend another transfer, the £0.1m saving against Evanilson offers little comfort.

You can test those GW11 and GW13 line-ups in the We Play FPL planner before confirming the move. Planning future squad drafts and transfers helps you judge whether you have enough cover.

Jackson: consider the full Villa run

Jackson costs £6.7m. Villa host Fulham in GW9, visit Man Utd in GW10, then face Sunderland at home, Ipswich away, Everton at home and Crystal Palace at home through GW14.

For a manager planning six Gameweeks of starts, that run makes him a credible alternative. The cost is the £0.5m premium over Evanilson. Jackson averages 78.1 minutes per match, with 0.30 xG/90 and 0.14 xA/90. His 0.44 xGI/90 trails Evanilson’s 0.54, so the extra spend depends on how you value Villa’s fixtures and Jackson’s role.

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He sits second in the penalty order. Make the purchase on his open-play prospects and fixture run rather than assuming penalty returns.

Barry: the lowest-cost rotation option

Barry costs £5.6m, saving £0.6m against Evanilson. He has started eight matches, averages 85.3 minutes per match and has produced 0.67 xG/90 plus 0.02 xA/90. His 0.69 xGI/90 leads this group, though you should read it alongside the fixtures rather than turn it into a scoring forecast.

Everton visit Newcastle in GW9 and host Coventry in GW10. Brentford away, Liverpool at home and Villa away follow before Fulham at home in GW14.

We favour Barry when you want a playing third forward and can pick his starts. Coventry and Fulham at home offer two clear uses. Buying him for six automatic starts would require more confidence in the difficult matches between them.

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Pick the forward your XI needs

For regular use from GW9, Evanilson gets our vote. Choose Calvert-Lewin when you can cover Chelsea and Man City away. Consider Jackson when you can afford £6.7m and want Villa’s six-match run. Barry suits a lower-cost third-forward spot with planned rotation.

Before committing, check the latest selection news and your intended XI for GW11 and GW13. A forward who fits those line-ups will serve your squad better than one chosen on price or the latest return alone.

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