The debate over individual awards never quiets. A frequent critique aimed at the Ballon d’Or is that it is determined by journalists rather than those inside the game, summed up by the sceptical refrain, “What do they know?”.

Voting based on the 2024–25 season is already under way and the initial list of 26 leading men’s and women’s players has been published. The longlist reflects last season’s major honours and high-profile performances, with the reigning European champions well represented among the nominees.

Paris Saint-Germain feature prominently. Seven members of Paris Saint-Germain’s starting XI for the men’s Champions League final received nomination, a showing that underlines the influence of that successful side on this stage. Arsenal Women also register strongly on the list, while England’s triumph at the summer’s European Championships has left a clear mark, giving the nominee pool a distinct Lionesses twang.

Those 26 names will not form the final teams. More votes will be compiled to produce two definitive XIs, one for men and one for women. Each final lineup will include a goalkeeper and at least three defenders, three midfielders and three forwards, ensuring balanced formations rather than arbitrary position counts.

The finished FIFPRO World XIs will be announced on Nov. 3, 2025. Until then the process will continue to attract scrutiny, both for who is included and for who decides. The shortlist offers a snapshot of the 2024–25 season’s standout performers, but the final selections will be decisive in shaping the year’s official best elevens.

Mikel Arteta left Arsenal supporters with few concrete answers after victory over Crystal Palace as a quartet of players exited the match with fitness doubts. William Saliba did not return for the second half after feeling discomfort at the interval, while Declan Rice and Riccardo Calafiori were also forced off. Even substitute Gabriel Martinelli was affected by niggles.

“On Willy [Saliba], there are two things related to his substitution,” Arteta said, adding only that the centre back “had to be out after the first half.” Saliba had twisted his ankle at the end of August but missed only one match, the 3–0 win over Nottingham Forest, with Cristhian Mosquera filling his place. The 21-year-old summer recruit was described as assured against Palace and might have been called upon against Brighton & Hove Albion in the Carabao Cup on Wednesday even if Saliba had been available.

Rice limped off inside the final 10 minutes, a rare sight for a player who earned the nickname ‘The Horse’ for “my ability to go again, my sustainability and availability to the team,” by his own reasoning. Arteta said: “Declan was struggling with a knock that he took from the first half,” but did not give further detail on the nature or severity of the problem.

Calafiori left the pitch alongside Rice and was included in the generalised assessment. “Let’s see how they recover,” the manager said. When pressed for specifics, Arteta added: “No, because I don’t know. It’s not because I don’t want to tell you, I don’t really know.”

Arteta has previously been tactical about communicating injury information, once instructing injured players to stroll out of the team bus in their pregame kit to maintain the impression of availability. He also cast doubt over Gabriel’s involvement this weekend only to start the Brazilian and keep him on for the full 90 minutes.

Martinelli had replaced Bukayo Saka midway through the second half. Arteta explained Saka’s removal by revealing: “Bukayo’s been ill and hasn’t really trained. We didn’t know whether he was going to be fit, so he made a big effort to be available today.

“The doctor guided us to give us the best possible opportunity to be in the best condition. He managed to play a few minutes but the longer the game went on, he was getting too fatigued and risked injury. We didn’t want to take that risk.”

After nine matches Arsenal sit four points clear at the top and Opta’s supercomputer now makes them the probable champions. “It’s very early,” Mikel Arteta told everyone who was willing to listen after Arsenal opened up a four-point lead at the Premier League summit on Sunday. The model weighs historical quirks — none of the last six teams to top the table after nine matches have finished first, Liverpool the most recent in 2019 — alongside a wide range of current data.

Arsenal’s defensive form impressed at the Emirates. David Raya was forced into his first Premier League save since September by Crystal Palace, yet the Eagles could only manage one shot on target. Arsenal themselves had just one goal-bound effort, but Eberechi Eze’s volley supplied the decisive finish. As both Arteta and Jurriën Timber stressed postgame, the Gunners have “a lot” that can be improved. Opta’s 10,000 simulations return Arsenal as champions two-thirds of the time, represented in the model by a 66.35% chance of winning the title.

Manchester City and Liverpool are projected to chase but trail in probability. Opta gives Man City a 14.33% title chance and Liverpool 11.43%. Chelsea (1.77%), Aston Villa (1.14%) and Bournemouth (1.10%) are all long shots by comparison. Bournemouth finished the weekend in second in the table, and their manager reflected caution: “It’s definitely a very good start, but it’s just a start,” Andoni Iraola said.

The supercomputer’s season projections extend beyond the top three. Opta’s predicted top 10 by points lists Arsenal on 80.02, Man City 70.27, Liverpool 69.25, Chelsea 60.20, Aston Villa 59.22, Bournemouth 58.87, Newcastle 58.45, Crystal Palace 57.27, Man Utd 56.76 and Spurs 56.20.

Manchester United began the campaign with low expectations from the model, which originally forecast a 12th-place finish, yet they have since won three in a row after heavy recruitment. Opta still expects United to finish ninth, and their manager cautioned that fortunes can change quickly: “Three weeks ago, things looked very different, and it can change again just as quickly.”