A summer dominated by Spain’s World Cup success in North America is fading fast, and the Premier League returns with the familiar flood of predictions. This time, Opta has put its numbers behind the new season, using its Power Rankings and thousands of simulations to map out the title race, the fight for Europe and the battle to avoid the drop.

At the top of the model, Arsenal stand clear of the field. Opta gives the champions a 38% chance of retaining the crown, a figure that places them ahead of Manchester City on 20.5% and Liverpool on 9.2%. Manchester United follow on 6.2%, with Aston Villa, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur all given smaller title probabilities.

The forecast also suggests a comfortable route back into the Champions League for Arsenal. Under a system where a top-five finish would be enough for qualification, the Gunners are rated at 83% to end up in that bracket. Manchester City and Liverpool are also strongly backed, while Manchester United are given a 40% chance of securing a return to Europe’s top competition.

Villa remain in the mix for Champions League football, though the model does not see them pushing for the league title. Chelsea’s prospects are built more around a Champions League return than a serious domestic challenge, despite the talk surrounding Xabi Alonso’s side. Tottenham, meanwhile, are viewed as more likely to improve than to join the title conversation, with a push for Europe framed as a realistic target after successive 17th-place finishes.

At the bottom, Opta is unconvinced by the newly promoted clubs. Hull City are rated the most likely to go down, followed by Ipswich Town and Coventry City. The model points to difficult openings for Coventry and Hull, noting that promoted teams often need a strong start to survive. In Premier League history, none of the 16 promoted teams who collected at least eight points from their first five games have gone straight back down.

Arsenal’s search for a centre-back has narrowed to two prominent England options, with Jarell Quansah and Ezri Konsa both under consideration. The club have also been linked with Spain’s Marc Pubill, but the latest focus appears to be on two defenders already familiar with the demands of English football.

Ben Jacobs reported that talks have been reopened with Aston Villa over Konsa. However, with a deal potentially costing more than $81 million (£60 million), Arsenal have also made an approach to Bayer Leverkusen regarding Quansah, according to Sky Sports News.

Versatility is central to Arsenal’s thinking. All three players are natural centre-backs, yet each has experience at right back, an area that has caused concern while Jurriën Timber continues to manage the fitness problems that have affected much of his calendar year.

There is no indication that Arsenal’s list is limited to only Quansah and Konsa, but both are clearly among the leading candidates. Their status as homegrown players may also work in Arsenal’s favour, particularly if it helps with possible exits for Myles Lewis-Skelly and Ethan Nwaneri, who have been linked with moves away from Emirates Stadium.

The pair are at very different stages of their careers. Konsa, 28, has more than 200 Premier League appearances and offers the certainty of an established performer. Quansah, 23, carries a higher degree of uncertainty, but also greater room for growth. He made only 17 Premier League starts before leaving Liverpool last summer for the Bundesliga, where he scored four times in 28 games last season.

The numbers underline the contrast. Quansah has youth, long-term value and a contract until 2030. Konsa brings experience, 231 Premier League appearances and a deal running until 2028. With the price tags thought to be broadly similar, Arsenal must decide whether to back proven reliability or a longer-term upside.

For Mikel Arteta, the answer may come down to what his squad needs most.

Mikel Arteta has underlined Myles Lewis-Skelly’s value after a promising preseason, describing the teenager’s form as a “good sign” while rival interest continues to surface.

Reports have linked the Arsenal midfielder with outside attention, with The Guardian stating he was “offered” to United and that Chelsea were also “made aware of his availability.” BBC Sport, however, have reported that Lewis-Skelly remains determined to stay at the Emirates Stadium and fight for his place.

The England international added to his preseason momentum by scoring in Arsenal’s latest friendly, netting in the 1-1 draw with Como before celebrating with a heart gesture toward the home support.

Arteta declined to discuss the speculation after the final whistle, but was keen to assess the player’s contribution and attitude.

“It’s good to score a goal, you should be emotional when you score a goal,” Arteta responded when quizzed about Lewis-Skelly’s celebration. “He’s a very emotional player. I remember when he did all the gestures on the pitch [last season]. I’m not going to talk about any speculation.

“If there is a speculation about our player, it’s a good sign. That means that we attract attention and they’re doing a good job.

“I think he had a really good preseason. I think we asked him to play in a different position, because he played more as a six, because we lacked central midfielders, obviously with international duties, and I think he had a really consistent preseason.”

Lewis-Skelly’s immediate future remains unresolved, but his situation also sits against Arsenal’s wider squad planning. The club are looking to recoup funds after spending on Guimarães ($101 million), Christos Tzolis ($45.4 million) and Piero Hincapié ($45.4 million).

As an academy graduate, he would count as pure profit if sold, giving Arsenal greater flexibility before the September deadline. The club have already made four signings this summer, including Illan Meslier on a free transfer, but Arteta made clear more may still be needed.

“There is more that we want to do because every time we have an opportunity to improve the squad and bring more quality and depth to the squad, we need to do that,” Arteta insisted.

“We are actively trying to do so. The thing in the market is that it doesn’t just depend on you. We are very clear on that.

“But the approach, the will and the desire of the club, that’s unquestionable. We want to try to do that. But we cannot promise that we’re going to do it because it doesn’t only depend on us.”