Arsenal
Opta’s 2026/27 forecast gives Arsenal the edge in title race
Opta’s model backs Arsenal for the title, while Hull City, Ipswich Town and Coventry City face relegation fears.
A summer dominated by Spain’s World Cup success in North America is fading fast, and the Premier League returns with the familiar flood of predictions. This time, Opta has put its numbers behind the new season, using its Power Rankings and thousands of simulations to map out the title race, the fight for Europe and the battle to avoid the drop.
At the top of the model, Arsenal stand clear of the field. Opta gives the champions a 38% chance of retaining the crown, a figure that places them ahead of Manchester City on 20.5% and Liverpool on 9.2%. Manchester United follow on 6.2%, with Aston Villa, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur all given smaller title probabilities.
The forecast also suggests a comfortable route back into the Champions League for Arsenal. Under a system where a top-five finish would be enough for qualification, the Gunners are rated at 83% to end up in that bracket. Manchester City and Liverpool are also strongly backed, while Manchester United are given a 40% chance of securing a return to Europe’s top competition.
Villa remain in the mix for Champions League football, though the model does not see them pushing for the league title. Chelsea’s prospects are built more around a Champions League return than a serious domestic challenge, despite the talk surrounding Xabi Alonso’s side. Tottenham, meanwhile, are viewed as more likely to improve than to join the title conversation, with a push for Europe framed as a realistic target after successive 17th-place finishes.
At the bottom, Opta is unconvinced by the newly promoted clubs. Hull City are rated the most likely to go down, followed by Ipswich Town and Coventry City. The model points to difficult openings for Coventry and Hull, noting that promoted teams often need a strong start to survive. In Premier League history, none of the 16 promoted teams who collected at least eight points from their first five games have gone straight back down.
Arsenal
Gyokeres Reaffirms Arsenal Commitment After Nations League Run
Gyokeres denies summer exit talk, but his Arsenal minutes remain limited as his Sweden form keeps rising.
Viktor Gyokeres has dismissed the summer speculation around his Arsenal future, insisting he never seriously considered moving on and was always settled at the club.
The striker said the noise around him did not change his thinking during the break between seasons. He pointed to a full preseason and a clear focus on Arsenal, adding that his decision was never in doubt. “Of course, there was a lot of speculation,” he confessed. “But I had a full preseason and it felt good. I was fully focused on Arsenal. For me, staying was a given. I’m extremely happy at the club.”
There is, however, a separate issue that may shape the coming weeks. Gyokeres has not yet enjoyed the regular league minutes he might have expected at the start of the campaign. Cup matches have provided opportunities, but Havertz has remained the preferred starter in the Premier League.
That frustration is not hidden. Earlier in this international break, Gyokeres admitted: “It’s clear that I want to play football—and as much as possible,” Gyokeres admitted earlier in this international break.
His international form has offered a sharp contrast. Gyokeres scored in Sweden’s 1-1 draw with Bosnia and Herzegovina on Friday, making it three goals from three games during this break. More significantly, he has become the first striker to score in six straight UEFA Nations League matches, a run that includes goals and an assist against Estonia and Slovakia, plus four goals against Azerbaijan toward the end of 2024.
With the Premier League set to resume next weekend, an injury to Havertz, who left Germany duty last week, could open the door for Gyokeres to press his case in front of Mikel Arteta.
Arsenal
Saliba edging towards November return as Arsenal weigh key fixture run
Saliba could return in November as Arsenal prepare for a difficult run of fixtures without rushing him back.
William Saliba is increasingly being viewed as a possible November return for Arsenal, a development that would hand Mikel Arteta a major defensive boost ahead of a demanding winter schedule.
The centre back has not played since the pain from a long-running back problem became too much to manage. Over the summer, he pushed through Arsenal’s Premier League run-in and their progress to the Champions League final, before eventually being forced off in the World Cup semifinal loss to Spain. Since then, the wait for a clear update has continued, with Arteta only previously describing the issue as “long-term”.
Concerns that Saliba could be out until 2027 now appear to have eased. According to L’Équipe, the France international could be back on the pitch “sometime in November.” That remains a loose timeline, but it is still a more encouraging picture than the one Arsenal feared not long ago.
The report adds that Saliba knows he must not rush himself back. A source said: “He knows he has to take his time. He’s suffered too much and wants to return at 100%” even if Saliba “misses it terribly.”
That caution matters. Saliba has already spent more than two months on the sidelines, and an early return could risk a setback that sends him back into treatment. Arsenal’s upcoming schedule gives little room for error.
Their first major test after the November international break is away to Newcastle United, a ground that has caused them problems in the past. Before last season’s dramatic win there, Arsenal had lost three straight trips to St James’ Park. That match could be followed by a run containing Borussia Dortmund, Man City, Brentford, Tottenham, Real Madrid, Bournemouth and Man Utd, plus Carabao Cup quarterfinals.
Whether Saliba is ready for that stretch or not, Arsenal will be hoping the wait ends soon, but only when he is truly fit.
Arsenal
Arsenal face fresh injury concern after Tzolis setback and Rice, Havertz updates
Tzolis, Rice and Havertz add to Arsenal’s growing injury concerns during the international break.
Arsenal’s international break has delivered another uneasy moment, with Christos Tzolis joining a growing list of fitness concerns around Mikel Arteta’s squad.
The winger’s evening in Thessaloniki turned quickly in the 16th minute, when he went to ground holding his hamstring during the clash with the Netherlands. He received treatment and seemed intent on continuing, but manager Ivan Jovanović decided otherwise and ordered him off. Tzolis was unhappy with the decision.
“I’m his coach, I tell him to come out and he says, ‘I’m not coming out,’” Jovanović revealed postgame. “This is something that can characterize the Greek and all these kids who come to play for the national team regardless of age. I think it was a scene that everyone saw, those who were nearby. I told him to get out, because I suspected that he wouldn’t have done that [asked for treatment] if he hadn’t felt something.”
Jovanović later said Tzolis had suffered a “muscular problem” and added: “It wasn’t a problem, like an ankle or something else,” the manager outlined. “When it’s muscular issues, that, along with the doctors, with the immediate information I have, was the reason I asked for him to come out immediately.”
Further scans are due before Greece meet Germany this weekend, leaving his availability uncertain. “We don’t know how much damage was done today, but I hoped it was just a twitch, something temporary,” Jovanović shrugged.
For Arsenal, the concern lands amid a broader run of setbacks. Declan Rice was ruled out before Thomas Tuchel could assess him, while Kai Havertz lasted only 30 minutes before a clash with Quinten Timber forced him off. The German FA later confirmed Havertz had suffered a “muscle strain,” with no recovery timeline given.
Rice remains a doubt for Arsenal’s Premier League return against Leeds United on Saturday, Oct. 10, while Havertz may yet recover in time for next weekend, though Arteta will be cautious after his striker’s recent injury record. Since tearing his hamstring in February 2025, Havertz has missed 26 matches with various muscular complaints. Tzolis, meanwhile, has started all five of Arsenal’s Premier League fixtures so far and had arrived with a strong injury record, making this latest scare particularly unwelcome for the club.
