Chip Strategy
FPL GW1 Draft: Make Each £0.5m Earn Its Place
Compare Szoboszlai with Wirtz, Shaw with Maguire and premium defenders through one GW1 rule: pay more when the upgrade adds a credible points route.
Each £0.5m upgrade competes for the same £100m budget. Spend that money across four positions and you have removed £2.0m from the premium, captaincy or bench slot that may matter more.
Set your premium spine and holding period before you compare players who sit one price step apart. A Haaland and Bruno Fernandes draft commits £27.5m to two players. That structure can work, but each upgrade elsewhere needs to add a points route that the cheaper option lacks.
Use three questions before you pay more:
- Does the upgrade improve expected minutes or role security?
- Does it add a credible route to points, such as penalties, set pieces, defensive contributions or attacking threat?
- Will you hold the player long enough to benefit from that edge?
If the answer stays unclear, keep the saving.
Szoboszlai and Wirtz test your midfield priorities
Dominik Szoboszlai costs £7.0m and has 42.8% ownership. Florian Wirtz costs £7.5m and has 14.7% ownership. Both play for Liverpool, so the opening fixtures do not separate them: Newcastle away in GW1, Nottingham Forest at home in GW2, Ipswich Town away in GW3 and Fulham at home in GW4.
The decision rests on role, minutes and the value of the saving. Szoboszlai suits a draft that needs £0.5m to protect another position. Wirtz suits a manager who expects his attacking role to produce enough chances to repay the higher price.
Ownership should prepare you for the rank effect, not make the choice. Szoboszlai’s popularity means his points will affect more managers. Wirtz offers a larger rank swing if he wins the comparison. Neither outcome tells you which role will score more points.
Liverpool’s penalty order, set-piece split and expected starts need a final deadline check. Keep the £0.5m when Wirtz’s edge depends on an unconfirmed role. Pay it when team information gives you a clear reason to expect more attacking involvement.
Shaw gives Maguire a £0.5m target to beat
Luke Shaw costs £4.5m with 24.2% ownership. Harry Maguire costs £5.0m with 9.9% ownership. Both cover the same Man Utd run: Hull City away, Ipswich Town at home and Everton away across the first three Gameweeks.
Maguire must earn the extra spend through routes Shaw cannot match. Set-piece threat, defensive contributions and stronger minutes confidence could support the upgrade. If those edges remain uncertain, Shaw gives you the fixtures for less money.
Your holding period changes the answer. A short three-Gameweek plan can value clean-sheet access and an easy exit. A longer hold needs durable minutes and repeatable scoring routes. The extra £0.5m becomes harder to defend when you expect to sell the player after the opening run.
Compare the full combinations before you choose. Shaw plus a stronger midfielder may outscore Maguire plus a compromised midfield slot even if Maguire beats Shaw. FPL rewards the squad total, so the upgrade must improve the team rather than one isolated comparison.
Premium defenders need a visible sacrifice
Gabriel costs £8.0m with 27.1% ownership. Virgil van Dijk costs £6.5m with 16.9% ownership. James Tarkowski sits at £6.0m and 9.7% ownership. Each price point asks you to make a different commitment to defence.
Gabriel has the strongest opening fixture of the group, with Arsenal hosting Coventry City in GW1. Arsenal then travel to Aston Villa, host Chelsea and visit Sunderland. Liverpool start at Newcastle before home matches against Nottingham Forest and Fulham sit either side of a trip to Ipswich Town.
Paying £1.5m more for Gabriel than Van Dijk needs to improve more than your confidence in one clean sheet. You want several scoring routes and enough holding time for them to matter. The same test applies when Van Dijk costs £0.5m more than Tarkowski.
Write down the sacrifice. If Gabriel forces you from Wirtz to Szoboszlai, compare those pairs as complete routes. If Van Dijk protects a stronger attacker, count that benefit in his case. A premium defender earns his place when the extra spend improves the combination that you can field.
Arsenal defensive availability needs a deadline check. Liverpool’s reshaped back line also adds uncertainty. Do not pay a premium price for a role that you have not confirmed.
An early Bench Boost should survive the same test
Gameweek 1 gives managers a chance to build 15 starters at fresh prices. That can make an early Bench Boost attractive, since the chip removes a future planning problem and turns the opening bench into part of the scoring team.
The chip can tempt you into upgrades with a short life. A £0.5m bench defender or goalkeeper should strengthen a slot you would accept in a normal squad. Four bench purchases made for one deadline can leave money stranded after the chip.
Judge the bench as four player decisions. Check expected starts, fixtures and whether you would keep each player through your planned holding period. Use the chip when those players pass the test without weakening captaincy or the starting XI.
Waiting gives you more team information and a chance to build value. It may also require transfers to prepare the bench. Your squad can support either route, but your chip plan should decide the spending before marginal upgrades consume the budget.
Finish the draft with a combination check
Review each £0.5m upgrade beside the player it forces you to lose. That turns a tempting name into a squad decision.
- Choose Szoboszlai when his saving fixes a weak slot and Wirtz’s role lacks enough certainty.
- Choose Wirtz when you expect the attacking role to repay the extra price across your holding period.
- Choose Shaw when you want Man Utd’s opening fixtures at the lowest cost.
- Choose Maguire when confirmed minutes and extra scoring routes justify £5.0m.
- Choose Gabriel when you can fund his ceiling without damaging captaincy or the attack.
- Choose Van Dijk or Tarkowski when the saving creates a stronger combination elsewhere.
Recheck Saka’s expected GW1 minutes, Arsenal’s defensive availability, Liverpool’s set pieces, Calvert-Lewin’s starting and penalty roles, and Maguire’s expected start before the deadline. Those updates can change a close comparison.
Your final squad needs a reason for each upgrade. Keep the £0.5m when the higher price buys hope. Spend it when you can name the points route, the holding period and the player who funds the move.
Chip Strategy
GW8 defender rotation: Muharemović now or Van Hecke later?
Muharemović offers a GW8 entry point, Van Hecke has later home fixtures and Silva provides another route from GW9. Match the purchase to your planned starts.
Tarik Muharemović is our preference among these budget defenders if you need a GW8 starter. Jan Paul van Hecke makes more sense if you can cover this week and want a defender for the home games in GW9 and GW11. Before spending around £5.0m, mark the weeks in which your new signing must play.
That distinction matters on a Wildcard, too. You can afford a tougher opening fixture for a fourth defender if your other three have suitable matches. A defender who has to start this weekend needs a different assessment.
Muharemović for the immediate vacancy
Muharemović costs £5.0m and faces Sunderland away in GW8. We prefer that entry fixture to Van Hecke’s trip to Chelsea or Silva’s visit to Manchester United. The case depends on needing him this week: Leeds then visit Bournemouth, host Spurs and travel to Chelsea.
He has averaged 90.0 min/match. His defensive contributions offer another scoring route alongside a possible clean sheet, with a season-to-date DefCon/90 of 10.43. Treat that as a rate across matches, not a promise that he will reach the scoring threshold in the next one.
His expected goals conceded rate is 1.39 xGC/90, while his attacking involvement stands at 0.11 xGI/90. Those figures support a measured purchase for a specific starting gap. They give little reason to expect regular attacking returns or to buy him without checking the rest of the Leeds run.
Van Hecke for GW9 and GW11 cover
Van Hecke costs £4.9m. Spurs face Chelsea away in GW8, Crystal Palace at home in GW9, Leeds away in GW10 and Ipswich Town at home in GW11.
The two home fixtures make him worth considering if your defence needs help in those weeks. Buy him before GW8 only if you can accept the Chelsea fixture or leave him on the bench without weakening your starting defence. You can wait until GW9 if you have no need to make the move before then.
He has averaged 90.0 min/match, with 1.34 xGC/90 and 0.17 xGI/90. His DefCon/90 is 9.29, below Muharemović’s 10.43. The small gap between their expected goals conceded rates does not establish a clear winner for the next match; their opponents and your planned starts deserve more weight in this choice.
Silva offers a different route from GW9
Silva costs £5.0m and starts with Manchester United away. Bournemouth then host Leeds, visit Ipswich Town and host Nottingham Forest in GW9–11. Consider him if you want a defender you can use across that stretch, rather than someone you need for GW8 alone.
He has averaged 90.0 min/match. His rates are 1.16 xGC/90, 0.24 xGI/90 and 10.43 DefCon/90. He has the lowest expected goals conceded rate and the highest attacking involvement rate of this trio, but those season-to-date measures do not forecast his next three scores. Check the fixtures against your other defenders before paying the extra £0.1m over Van Hecke.
Map the starts before buying
Write down your three intended starting defenders for GW8 through GW11, then identify the vacant slots. You can map future lineups and compare rotation options in We Play FPL before committing the transfer. The planner supports future squad drafts and lineups, while the rotation scout helps assess player combinations across upcoming fixtures.
For a GW8 vacancy, we lean towards Muharemović. For gaps in GW9 and GW11, Van Hecke’s home fixtures warrant a closer look. Silva suits a manager who can cover GW8 and wants another option for the following run.
Keep the cost of the whole defence in view. Spending around £5.0m on a fourth defender needs a purpose if the extra money could improve a regular starter elsewhere. Check availability and the expected starting lineups before the GW8 deadline on 23 October at 17:30 UTC, then choose the player for the weeks you intend to use him.
Chip Strategy
GW7 defence: start Muharemović or Hall?
We lean towards Muharemović for GW7 when you own both defenders. Compare his defensive contribution rate with Hall’s greater attacking involvement before setting your XI.
Start Tarik Muharemović ahead of Lewis Hall if you own both and have one place available in your GW7 defence. We lean towards Muharemović for his defensive contributions and his lower rate of expected goals conceded. Hall offers more attacking involvement, so treat this as a close call.
Both play at home: Leeds face Manchester United and Newcastle face Aston Villa. You can make this choice through your starting lineup without spending a transfer.
Muharemović has the stronger defensive contribution rate
Muharemović averages 11.33 defensive contributions per 90, compared with Hall’s 8.68. At an average of 90.0 minutes per match, he has also given owners a dependable playing-time record. Hall averages 89.8 minutes per match, so neither player has a meaningful advantage in historical playing time.
We prefer Muharemović because he has done more defensive work across that similar match opportunity. A season average cannot guarantee a defensive contribution return against Manchester United, but it gives us a reason to favour him when deciding between two available defenders.
He also has the lower xGC/90: 1.46 against Hall’s 1.77. That measure describes the quality of chances conceded while each player was on the pitch. It does not provide a clean-sheet probability for this weekend. You still need to account for the opponent, and we would avoid presenting either home fixture as a comfortable clean sheet.
Hall offers more attacking involvement
Hall has recorded 0.19 expected goal involvements per 90, compared with Muharemović’s 0.09. His greater attacking involvement gives you a sound reason to start him if you prefer that route to points.
Those attacking rates remain modest. You would need more than this gap to treat a Hall return as likely or to dismiss Muharemović’s defensive contribution advantage. We favour the latter for GW7 while recognising that Hall can reward owners who make the other choice.
For a side-by-side check of performance data and upcoming fixtures, you can compare both defenders in We Play FPL before setting your lineup. Keep any predicted points separate from the historical rates used here; predictions do not guarantee a result.
Make the lineup decision for the players you own
At £5.0m for Muharemović and £5.3m for Hall, the price difference has no effect on this week’s starting choice for managers who own both. Keep the transfer decision separate: a marginal preference for one fixture provides little reason to sell Hall.
Check final fitness and expected starts before the GW7 deadline on 17 October at 10:00 UTC. Both have clear availability flags at the time of writing. If that changes, reassess the choice. With both available and one starting slot to fill, our pick is Muharemović.
Chip Strategy
GW7 Wildcard: budget for Palmer, Rogers and João Pedro
Chelsea’s attacking triple costs £25.4m. Compare it with a two-player draft across GW7–13, using attacking rates, average minutes and the bench you can afford.
Palmer, Rogers and João Pedro cost £25.4m between them. A GW7 Wildcard can accommodate all three Chelsea attackers, but you need enough money left for the rest of your starting XI and a bench you can use.
Our preference is to build the squad across Chelsea’s GW7–13 fixtures, then decide whether the third attacker earns his place. Pick two if buying all three forces you to accept weak cover or a starter you would otherwise replace.
Give the Chelsea picks seven fixtures
Chelsea visit Everton in GW7, then host Spurs and Manchester United. They follow that with Sunderland away, Leeds at home, Nottingham Forest away and Crystal Palace at home.
That gives you four home matches across seven Gameweeks. You can hold the attackers through several fixtures instead of expecting the Everton match to justify the whole investment. You still need to accept the away games and check each player’s fitness and starting outlook before the deadline.
Plan a review around GW14, when Chelsea host Liverpool, followed by Manchester City away in GW15. Those matches give you a reason to reassess the triple rather than commit three club slots without a later checkpoint.
Compare the price with the attacking evidence
Palmer and Rogers are FPL midfielders; João Pedro is a forward. Buying all three uses two midfield places, one forward place and your three Chelsea slots.
- Palmer: £9.7m. He averages 88.2 min/match, with 0.37 xGI/90.
- Rogers: £7.9m. He averages 86.7 min/match, with 0.55 xGI/90.
- João Pedro: £7.8m. He averages 86.2 min/match, with 0.64 xGI/90.
Here, xGI/90 means expected goal involvements per 90 minutes. These are season-to-date performance rates, not predictions for the next fixture. Read them alongside average minutes per match; a player still needs time on the pitch to turn his attacking involvement into FPL returns.
Palmer costs £1.8m more than Rogers despite the lower attacking rate so far. That gap deserves scrutiny when you build the Wildcard. You can prefer Palmer, but paying the extra needs to fit the squad you want rather than follow his price tag.
Rogers and João Pedro offer the cheaper route into two Chelsea attacking slots. Their playing-time records support consideration, although past appearances cannot guarantee the next start. Check current team news before locking either into your XI.
Put two-player drafts beside the triple
Rogers and João Pedro cost £15.7m together. Palmer and João Pedro cost £17.5m, while Palmer and Rogers cost £17.6m.
Build the £25.4m triple beside the pair you would otherwise choose. Then inspect the players you can afford in the remaining positions. If the triple forces an avoidable weakness in defence or leaves you without a usable substitute, keep the pair and spend elsewhere.
You can test future squad drafts in We Play FPL to map transfers and line-ups across the Chelsea holding period. Put your preferred pair and the triple into separate drafts, then check who starts when you need cover. A bench player has more value when you can identify the Gameweeks in which you will use him.
Three Chelsea attackers also leave you no Chelsea slot for a goalkeeper or defender. Include that restriction in the comparison if you had planned to use a defensive pick from the same club.
Buy the third attacker when the squad can support him
Choose the triple if you want to hold all three through GW7–13 and can retain a starting XI and bench you trust. Choose two when the third player takes money from a more useful squad improvement.
Before the GW7 deadline on 17 October at 10:00 UTC, check availability and expected starts, then review the whole draft. The Chelsea fixture run gives you a reason to invest; your budget decides how many attackers to buy.
