A summer dominated by Spain’s World Cup success in North America is fading fast, and the Premier League returns with the familiar flood of predictions. This time, Opta has put its numbers behind the new season, using its Power Rankings and thousands of simulations to map out the title race, the fight for Europe and the battle to avoid the drop.

At the top of the model, Arsenal stand clear of the field. Opta gives the champions a 38% chance of retaining the crown, a figure that places them ahead of Manchester City on 20.5% and Liverpool on 9.2%. Manchester United follow on 6.2%, with Aston Villa, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur all given smaller title probabilities.

The forecast also suggests a comfortable route back into the Champions League for Arsenal. Under a system where a top-five finish would be enough for qualification, the Gunners are rated at 83% to end up in that bracket. Manchester City and Liverpool are also strongly backed, while Manchester United are given a 40% chance of securing a return to Europe’s top competition.

Villa remain in the mix for Champions League football, though the model does not see them pushing for the league title. Chelsea’s prospects are built more around a Champions League return than a serious domestic challenge, despite the talk surrounding Xabi Alonso’s side. Tottenham, meanwhile, are viewed as more likely to improve than to join the title conversation, with a push for Europe framed as a realistic target after successive 17th-place finishes.

At the bottom, Opta is unconvinced by the newly promoted clubs. Hull City are rated the most likely to go down, followed by Ipswich Town and Coventry City. The model points to difficult openings for Coventry and Hull, noting that promoted teams often need a strong start to survive. In Premier League history, none of the 16 promoted teams who collected at least eight points from their first five games have gone straight back down.

Netflix sport documentaries have a habit of reopening familiar debates, and a new series on José Mourinho has done exactly that. One of the clearest revelations is that, after leaving Real Madrid and before the next season began, Mourinho chose a return to Chelsea rather than taking over Manchester United, a decision also confirmed by Ferguson.

That left United to appoint David Moyes, who arrived as ‘The Chosen One’ and lasted only 10 months. Mourinho, meanwhile, went back to Chelsea and won his third Premier League title there across two seasons. He later did join United in 2016, collecting the League Cup and Europa League before his spell ended in 2018.

The question is a straightforward one: what if he had been installed before the 2013-14 campaign? Moyes inherited a squad that had already lost Paul Scholes to retirement for the second time, while United’s summer spending brought in just three players. Marouane Fellaini was the headline arrival, with Juan Mata added in January as the season slid into difficulty.

Even so, the squad was hardly barren. David De Gea was in goal, Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidić still anchored the defence, and Patrice Evra and Antonio Valencia offered trusted options at full back. Up front, Robin van Persie scored 18 in all competitions, Wayne Rooney 19, Javier Hernández nine and Danny Welbeck 10.

There were also bigger possibilities. United had previously explored Cesc Fábregas, while Gareth Bale held talks with the club in 2013 before moving to Real Madrid. Mourinho’s reputation may well have made those conversations more persuasive.

What is beyond dispute is how badly Moyes’ United fared in the major fixtures. They won only one of 10 league matches against the traditional ‘Big Six’, finished seventh, and suffered heavy defeats, including two 3-0 losses at Old Trafford to Liverpool and Manchester City.

Mourinho’s strengths lay elsewhere. He was known for structure, control and results against elite opposition, and Chelsea’s own 2013-14 record underlined the contrast. They finished third, took 18 more points than United, conceded only 27 league goals, and advanced further in both the Champions League and FA Cup.

United may still have fallen short of silverware, but with Mourinho in charge, the outlook would almost certainly have been stronger, and Champions League qualification far more likely.

Chelsea have drawn a clear line in the sand over Enzo Fernández, making Manchester City’s interest in the midfielder a matter of price and timing rather than prolonged negotiation.

According to the draft, City would need to pay $162.1 million (£120 million) to tempt Chelsea into a sale, and any bid must arrive before Friday at 5 p.m. U.K. time, or 12 p.m. ET and 9 a.m. PT. The Athletic first reported the deadline.

That stance reduces the saga to simple terms, but the reality is less straightforward. Since March, Fernández’s future has carried plenty of uncertainty, with teasing comments about his plans leading to an in-house suspension at Chelsea. Since then, the situation has settled, and bridges have been rebuilt.

Xabi Alonso is expected to make regular use of the Argentina international if he remains in west London next season. Last term, Chelsea’s constant coaching changes gave Fernández more Premier League starts and minutes than any other player in the squad.

For City, the attraction is understandable, especially with the influence of Maresca’s appointment helping to encourage interest in a reunion with his former vice-captain. But Chelsea’s valuation is intended to reflect both Fernández’s importance and the difficulty of finding a replacement.

The draft notes that Chelsea would need time to identify a midfielder capable of contributing 10 top-flight goals while also leading the team for chances created and ranking second for possessions won. That profile is rare, and it would not come cheaply in a market already shaped by huge fees for midfielders.

There is also a tactical question. City may need a midfielder if Rodri moves to Barcelona, but Fernández is not an obvious direct fit for that role. He has often played deeper for Chelsea, yet has long seen himself as more effective in attacking areas, saying: “I’ve always felt comfortable playing near the goal, looking for pockets of space so I can create a chance or shoot,” he explained in the past.

Lille’s Ayyoub Bouaddi is mentioned as a more natural Rodri replacement, although he lacks senior experience. For now, Chelsea’s deadline is designed to force a decision, but it remains to be seen whether such an ultimatum will truly decide the outcome.