Analytics & Stats
Opta projection puts Arsenal firmly in control after London Stadium drama
Opta model boosts Arsenal’s title odds to 87.2% after late VAR overturn and Raya save in London 2026
Arsenal’s visit to the London Stadium produced the sort of nervy afternoon that tight title races often deliver. The leaders laboured as West Ham grew into the game and created the moments that might have swung the result. David Raya was on hand to potentially ‘Stefan Ortega’ Arsenal’s way to glory with a monumental save to deny Mateus Fernandes, minutes before Leandro Trossard capitalised following a curious Martin Ødegaard meander.
Trossard’s effort looked decisive until stoppage-time drama. West Ham believed they had salvaged a point, but VAR intervened and Pablo’s impediment of Raya was judged sufficient to overturn the on-field decision. That lengthy review ultimately left Arsenal with the three points.
Opta’s projection model now gives Arsenal an 87.2% chance of the 2025/26 title, a rise from 79.7% after Manchester City eased past Brentford 3–0 on Saturday. Opta predicts Arsenal to finish on 83.37 points and Man City on 79.86, with City still able to cut the gap to two points this week. The forecast assumes City must win out to reclaim the title, with a difficult trip to Bournemouth among their remaining fixtures.
Opta’s European places projections show: Manchester United (actual 65, predicted 67.94) at 100% for Champions League qualification; Liverpool (59, 62.37) at 96.98%; Aston Villa (59, 61.03) at 87.36%; Bournemouth (55, 57.48) at 10.78%; Brighton (53, 56.08) at 4.88%. Manchester United secured their return to Europe’s premier competition by beating Liverpool 3–2 this month.
The fight for sixth is affected by the Europa League final: an Aston Villa win in Istanbul would alter qualification routes. Opta gives sixth-place chances of Bournemouth 48.63%, Brighton 32.12%, Brentford 3.85%, Chelsea 0.8% and Everton 0.37%. Bournemouth remain unbeaten since Antoine Semenyo fled to Manchester.
At the wrong end, Opta’s relegation probabilities place Burnley and Wolves at 100%, West Ham 87.65% and Tottenham 12.35%, while Leeds, Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest sit at 0% in the model.
Analytics & Stats
David Raya Clinches Third Straight Premier League Golden Glove
David Raya won a third straight Golden Glove as Arsenal beat West Ham 1-0; he kept 18 clean sheets.
David Raya secured the Premier League Golden Glove for a third consecutive season after Arsenal’s 1–0 victory over West Ham United. The disallowed goal and subsequent three points not only moved Arsenal closer to the title but also made Raya the 2025–26 Golden Glove winner.
The 30-year-old finished the campaign with 18 clean sheets from 36 league appearances, a total that guarantees the award with two games still to play. That tally leads the division: Gianluigi Donnarumma sits second with 14, while Jordan Pickford and Dean Henderson each recorded 11 and Djordje Petrovic finished with 10.
With three matches remaining for Pep Guardiola’s men, Donnarumma cannot close the gap to Raya. The 18 shutouts are Raya’s highest single-season total since he joined Arsenal ahead of the 2023–24 season, when he recorded 16 Premier League clean sheets. In the 2024–25 season he had 13 shutouts, tying Nottingham Forest’s Matz Sels to top the league that year.
Those three campaigns at the top of the clean-sheet charts have produced Raya’s hat-trick of Golden Glove awards. Since his Premier League debut in 2021, from his time at Brentford and now Arsenal, Raya has compiled 67 Premier League clean sheets. That total surpasses several leading shot-stoppers over the same period: Alisson on 59, Jordan Pickford 51, Ederson 51, Emiliano Martínez 45 and Nick Pope 43.
Raya’s consistency across multiple seasons, and his league-leading 18 clean sheets this term, underline why he has joined an exclusive group of goalkeepers who have claimed the Golden Glove in three straight seasons: Pepe Reina (2006–2008), Joe Hart (2011–2013) and Ederson (2020–2022).
Analytics & Stats
Opta Simulations Leave Arsenal Favoured as City Cut Lead to Two Points
Opta’s simulations keep Arsenal favourites despite City’s late wins and a tightening title race ’26.
Opta’s supercomputer still ranks Arsenal ahead in the title race despite Manchester City’s late reply at Brentford and a tightening gap. City reduced Arsenal’s lead to two points with both clubs having three matches remaining, but the model continues to favour the Gunners in most scenarios.
Jérémy Doku had been on target twice against Everton on Monday night, yet those goals could not stop City dropping points in a 3–3 draw. Erling Haaland, who scored against Brentford, insisted his team were “still in it” after the Everton setback. Saturday’s reaction at Brentford and the potential importance of goal difference in this finish were both underlined by City’s late flurry.
Opta’s projections list Arsenal on 76 actual points with a predicted 82.37 points and a 79.7% chance of winning the title. Manchester City sit on 74 actual points with a predicted 79.55 points and a 20.3% title probability. Arsenal were given an 85% chance of winning the league in the immediate aftermath of City’s stumble on Merseyside earlier this week.
The computer’s view takes in upcoming schedules. City are shown with fixtures against Crystal Palace and Aston Villa either side of a trip to Bournemouth, a sequence the model judges tricky because Bournemouth remain in the chase for Champions League qualification.
Elsewhere, Manchester United’s place in the Champions League was effectively sealed as they crawled to a goalless draw with Sunderland in their first game after securing qualification. Opta projects United to reach 68.01 points with a 100% chance of qualifying for Europe’s top competition. Liverpool drew 1–1 with Chelsea and still need another win to guarantee a top-five finish. “We wanted to qualify for it weeks ago,” Slot sighed. “It isn’t the season we’re having, though. Sometimes it is really hard to accept these results because we are used to different ones.”
Bournemouth’s manager reflected on survival and ambition after a 1–0 win over Fulham. “Today was a very important step forward,” Bournemouth’s Andoni Iraola beamed after his side battled to a 1–0 win over Fulham on Saturday, “but we still have to get more points.” Brighton’s captain also noted the season’s extremes. “It’s a mental season,” club captain Lewis Dunk gushed, “one minute we’re looking at relegation and now we’re talking about Europe, it’s great fun football, isn’t it?”
On the bottom end, Tottenham conclude the matchday with a crunch clash against Leeds on Monday and their chances of survival have improved, while West Ham do not face Arsenal until Sunday.
Analytics & Stats
Opta Model Favors Arsenal After Man City Draws 3-3 With Everton
Opta gives Arsenal 85.24% chance after Man City drew 3-3 with Everton; title race shifts to Arsenal.
Manchester City were left to rue another slip as they came away with a point from a 3-3 draw with Everton. “We’re still in it,” Haaland offered to his teammates while processing the chaotic 90 minutes. City sit five points behind the Gunners having played one game fewer, but Pep Guardiola was blunt: “It’s not in our hands.”
Opta’s supercomputer gives Arsenal the clear advantage. The model lists Arsenal on 76 points with an expected 82.30 and title chances of 85.24%. Manchester City are on 71 points with an expected 78.75 and title chances of 14.76%. Arsenal have been favourites for months and were given the edge even after City briefly reclaimed top spot with a win over Burnley in April.
City must now hope Arsenal drop points in at least one of their remaining fixtures against West Ham United, Burnley and Crystal Palace, three sides the Gunners have already beaten in the league this season. Arsenal’s 3-0 win over Fulham on Saturday suggested a straightforward run-in, though that Fulham side had been struck by a roster-wide virus. The north London players carry the weight of three years of second-place finishes as they chase a 22-year wait for top-flight glory.
The calendar also presents challenges for City: four games in 11 days with the FA Cup final included. Guardiola reminded reporters: “We have games left,” and added, “We will see what happens.” He had ceded the title earlier in the season only for his side to fight back.
Elsewhere Opta predicts Manchester United (64 points, expected 68.61) have secured Champions League football, with Liverpool and Aston Villa also highly likely to qualify. Villa, despite recent defeats including a loss to Tottenham that was their fifth in eight league games, remain buoyed by a previous run of 12 wins from 13. “In 35 games, things are very good,” Unai Emery insisted, “and we have the advantage to still be in the top five, but we must continue to be demanding.”
The model also maps a tight battle for sixth and a perilous relegation picture that places Burnley and Wolves as certain to go down and West Ham with a large danger percentage after a miserable weekend.
-
Analytics & Stats1 month agoOpta Model: Tottenham’s Survival Odds After Igor Tudor Exit
-
Analytics & Stats2 months agoOpta Supercomputer Lays Out 2025–26 Premier League Forecast as Arsenal Lead the Way
-
Manchester City4 weeks agoManchester City financial case: timeline, allegations and potential penalties
