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Premier League

Opta model puts Spurs’ relegation risk under 4% after Thomas Frank departure

Opta’s model gives Tottenham a 3.95% relegation chance after Thomas Frank’s exit and fixtures loom.

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Tottenham Hotspur dismissed Thomas Frank on Wednesday morning after a run of results that left the club precariously placed in the table. The club’s statement was terse: “Results and performances have led the board to conclude that a change at this point in the season is necessary,” and followed a 2–1 defeat to Newcastle United that left Spurs 16th, five points clear of the relegation zone.

The immediate concern is obvious: fixtures tighten, injuries persist and no manager is yet in the dugout. The new-look executive board in the absence of Daniel Levy will have more than a week to find a successor—either a stop-gap before a permanent summer appointment or a longer-term choice—before next Sunday’s north London derby.

Despite the turmoil, Opta’s supercomputer assigns Tottenham only a 3.95% chance of relegation. Wolverhampton Wanderers and Burnley are described as effectively consigned to demotion, while West Ham United are rated the likeliest candidates at 74.57% even after an encouraging recent run. Nottingham Forest are given a 15.15% likelihood of dropping, and Leeds United have a 4.82% chance.

The model expects Spurs to finish the season where they sit now, in 16th. That would be marginally better than the Premier League era low of 17th under Ange Postecoglou last term, a campaign that was, at least, balanced by a Europa League trophy. Frank’s side also managed fourth place across the initial league phase of this season’s Champions League, a statistic that offers little consolation as domestic results decline.

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Frank has attracted unusual attention off the pitch; he was, according to a report, accused of an unhealthy “obsession” with the Gunners. He will surely watch the derby with interest, and he will remember Eberechi Eze becoming the first player to score a Premier League hat-trick in the fixture in November, a player Tottenham almost signed last summer who has not scored since.

Upcoming fixtures:
Sunday, Feb. 22 — Arsenal (H)
Sunday, March 1 — Fulham (A)
Thursday, March 5 — Crystal Palace (H)
Sunday, March 15 — Liverpool (A)

Liverpool

Iraola’s opening Liverpool run compared with Klopp and Slot after 15 matches

Iraola’s first 15 Liverpool matches stack up more closely with Klopp than Slot despite a tough recent run.

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Andoni Iraola has now reached 15 matches in charge of Liverpool, and the early picture is one of contrast and comparison. He has just suffered back-to-back defeats for the first time since taking over, with the loss in Istanbul following the 1-0 reverse against Arsenal at Anfield, where Liverpool failed to register a shot on target for the first time in more than 20 years.

Those two defeats in four days mean Iraola has already lost more games than Arne Slot did across his opening 15 matches. But the Spanish coach’s start still sits much closer to Jürgen Klopp’s first stretch at the club, and in some areas it is even stronger.

Through 15 games, Iraola has recorded eight wins, four draws and three defeats, with Liverpool scoring 29 and conceding 21. Klopp’s opening 15 produced seven wins, five draws and three losses, with 23 goals scored and 15 conceded. Slot’s start, by comparison, was on another level: 13 wins, one draw and one defeat, with 35 goals scored and only 10 let in.

Slot’s beginning at Anfield was extraordinary. He became the first manager in club history to win 11 of his first 12 matches, and by his 15th game he had built a sequence of 13 wins and just one defeat. That momentum carried Liverpool on to the 2024-25 Premier League title in his debut season.

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Iraola, however, arrived into a very different situation. He inherited a side that was already substantially changed, unlike Slot, who took over a team that was already highly established. His context is closer to Klopp’s, who arrived with far less of a platform and had to build while going.

The mood around the team shifted sharply after the Arsenal and Manchester City defeats, both at home, but Iraola pointed to the earlier run of four straight wins and Carabao Cup progress at Chelsea as a reminder that perspective matters.

“It’s not easy in the moment because we react the same way,” Iraola told reporters on Friday. “When we lose a game, everyone is angry. But we have to have some perspective, and we know that in the process, [there] will be ups and downs and we have to get through this moment.

“We would love to have good performances, wins, good results, but normally it doesn’t happen. There are moments when you are in a good run like we were before Arsenal, now you lose two games and there are always doubts. But I understand, as a supporter I would do the same, it’s normal.”

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Manchester United

Carrick Says United Must Be Built Back to Ferguson-Level Standards

Carrick says United can reach Ferguson’s standards again, but only through patience.

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Michael Carrick believes Manchester United can, in time, rediscover the level of success associated with Sir Alex Ferguson, though he stressed that such a return cannot be rushed.

Speaking on the 40th anniversary of Ferguson’s appointment at Old Trafford, Carrick said the club’s recent history and longer-term aims demand patience and realism. He underlined that progress has to be constructed step by step, not delivered instantly.

“it’s not impossible”

“It’s not impossible, anything is possible,” Carrick said on Friday. “You’ve got to build, you got to be realistic, you got to put things in perspective as well. The recent history that we have and where we want to get to, it’s not going to happen in a blink of an eye, it’s not going to happen overnight.

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“Success does take time and we don’t like having to spend time, but it does take a period of time to build. We showed a really quick response and improved a lot last season. It shows what is possible, but again, sustaining it is the key, consistency is the key. There’s no other way of doing it, there’s no shortcuts to it, and in the end, thats where you get to. But it’s definitely possible.”

Carrick also noted how hard it is to achieve lasting success, saying the challenge is as real now as it was in Ferguson’s era. “It’s difficult to bring success. It was difficult then, and it’s difficult now. It just shows you how tough it is to have sustained success, never mind moments of success. We’ve got to live in the moment. We know what we’ve got to do, and we’ve got to be focused on bringing success week to week in games.

“Then things fall into place. If you do that enough, and do it often enough, you’ll bring a bigger version of it [success].”

Ferguson arrived in the red side of Manchester on Nov. 6, 1986, and went on to define an era. He ended United’s 26-year wait for a league title in 1992–93, then added 13 Premier League titles before retiring after the 2012–13 season. His 528 Premier League wins remain a record.

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Under Ferguson, United also completed the treble in 1998–99 and finished with 38 trophies in total. Carrick, who said he is now closer to Ferguson than he was as a player, described his influence as “immense.”

He also acknowledged that the modern game does not allow many managers the time Ferguson was given. “The game has certainly changed, no doubt,” Carrick said. “It always does. It evolves, and it had evolved by the stage probably after Sir Martin and in the years after that to then Sir Alex. It evolves all the time, that’s how it is.

“It changes, and we’ve got to deal with what’s in front of us. There’s always different things to compare, but we have to live in the present as well and definitely use past experiences to help us. Time and patience, but we’re all desperate to win football matches and win them as quickly as we possibly can.”

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Man Utd

JJ Gabriel and the Real Madrid path that awaits after Manchester United exit

Real Madrid are close to Gabriel, but the teenager’s path from United remains uncertain and demanding.

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The move that has hovered over JJ Gabriel’s future now looks close to resolution, with Real Madrid reported to be nearing a deal for the teenage forward.

His eligibility to join a club overseas has been helped by his family background. His father is an English-born former Republic of Ireland international, while his mother is Greek-Cypriot, allowing him to move beyond Brexit restrictions in the next transfer window.

Reports already place Gabriel in Spain, where he has been working with a personal trainer, and a January switch now appears to be the likeliest outcome.

Gabriel’s rise has been anything but ordinary. He began with Top Ballerz FC, gained attention through YouTube skills videos while still in elementary school, and later spent time in the academies of Chelsea, Arsenal and West Ham before joining Manchester United in 2022. At United, he has broken several records, including appearing for the U-18s at 14 and scoring a hat trick against Sabah in the UEFA Youth League earlier this year.

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He also arrives with a sizeable profile away from the pitch, with close to one million Instagram followers and a long-term Nike deal already in place. He is managed by his father, who changed his son’s name from Joseph Junior Andreou O’Cearuill to JJ Gabriel for marketing reasons.

In football terms, he is viewed as a versatile forward who can operate centrally, just behind the striker, or from the left. He has already been compared with Lamine Yamal, Neymar, Lionel Messi and Arsenal teenager Max Dowman.

The break from Manchester United stemmed from a disagreement over his route to first-team football. His exit became more likely after he was left out of the squad to face Sabah in the Champions League. There have also been suggestions that requests linked to training, selection and pay were made on his behalf.

The Telegraph claims that Madrid have “put together a projected fast-track pathway for Gabriel towards the first team.” That may begin with Real Madrid Castilla, but the club are expected to keep open a route into La Liga and the Champions League.

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Should the transfer be completed in January, Gabriel could even become Madrid’s youngest-ever player, overtaking Martin Ødegaard. But the Norwegian’s story is a reminder of how difficult that environment can be. As he said in The Players’ Tribune : “With the B team, I wasn’t with them regularly so I didn’t find that connection. In the first team, I was just some kid who came to train. I wasn’t involved in matches. I felt a bit like an outsider. I was stuck in between.”

Ødegaard left permanently in 2021 after only 11 first-team appearances, and Gabriel’s challenge would be no less exacting. Real Madrid may offer a plan on paper, but the reality for a 16-year-old in a demanding second half of the season could prove far less forgiving.

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