Opta’s supercomputer predicts a tight finish to the Premier League season with Arsenal remaining the favourite and Manchester City closing the gap.

City’s 3–0 win over Crystal Palace on Wednesday reduced the deficit to two points, with both title contenders having two league games remaining. Opta projects Arsenal to finish on about 83.50 points and awards them an 85.68% chance of securing the title. The forecast notes Arsenal face Burnley and Crystal Palace to close their campaign.

Manchester City are predicted to end on roughly 80.43 points and carry a 14.32% probability of overtaking Arsenal. Opta highlights City’s recent wins against Brentford and Crystal Palace but also points to the costly draw at Everton as influential in the projection. City’s final fixtures against Bournemouth and Aston Villa are listed as challenging.

Below the top two, Opta forecasts Manchester United to finish third on 68.13 points and to have already secured Champions League qualification. The model credits United’s resurgence under Michael Carrick and projects their best placing since 2022–23. Liverpool are tipped for fourth with about 62.33 points and a 97.03% chance of Champions League football next season.

Aston Villa are forecast fifth on 61.07 points with an 87.18% chance of that finish, although a Europa League triumph would also guarantee Champions League entry. Bournemouth and Brighton are predicted to occupy sixth and seventh with roughly 57.46 and 56.11 points respectively; Bournemouth’s 17-game unbeaten run is noted despite the model favoring them for sixth.

Opta places Chelsea and Everton around the mid-50s point totals, with Chelsea projected to finish ninth on about 52 points. The model underlines Chelsea’s lack of a league victory since March 4 and contrasts that with last summer’s Club World Cup and the club’s fourth-place position on Christmas Day.

At the bottom, Opta frames a relegation fight centred on Tottenham and West Ham. Spurs drew 1–1 with Leeds while West Ham lost 1–0 to Arsenal. Roberto De Zerbi’s men retain a two-point buffer, and the model gives Spurs a narrow edge to avoid relegation by that margin.

The end of the 2025/26 Premier League season sets two distinct routes for the leading sides. Arsenal sit closest to the finish line. Three consecutive league wins have steadied their campaign and two more victories will guarantee them the title.

Arsenal host Burnley at the Emirates Stadium on May 18. Burnley are already relegated, are winless in their last 11 fixtures and occupy 19th place. They drew with Aston Villa in their most recent game. The meeting looks straightforward on paper and offers Arsenal a chance to boost goal difference.

Arsenal then travel to Selhurst Park to close their league campaign on May 24 against Crystal Palace. Palace have troubled Arsenal previously, with two of the last three meetings ending in draws. Oliver Glasner could be inclined to rest many of his best players with one eye on the Conference League final three days later. “The visitors will also no doubt have the Champions League final on their mind, but they cannot afford to rotate against the Eagles when the Premier League title could still hang in the balance.”

Manchester City must hope for slip-ups while erasing the memory of last week’s misstep against Everton. Pep Guardiola’s side must win their remaining games to retain any chance of the title and must also hope Arsenal falter at least once.

City have the FA Cup final against Chelsea at Wembley at the weekend. A win there would return a second trophy to the Etihad this season, with the Citizens still chasing a potential third. Three days after Wembley they travel to the Vitality Stadium to face Bournemouth on May 19. Bournemouth recently toppled Arsenal and are pursuing European qualification, so they are unlikely to yield easily.

On paper the Citizens’ remaining fixtures appear tougher than Arsenal’s. Time is running out for City. The final fixtures will determine whether Arsenal can close the job or whether City can engineer a late swing in the title race.

The published VAR audio from Match Officials Mic’d Up makes clear why West Ham United’s late equaliser against Arsenal was ruled out. Referees’ chief Howard Webb defended the outcome after a lengthy video check that examined multiple incidents in the penalty area.

“Is it a foul on the goalkeeper? Categorically yes,” Webb told Match Officials Mic’d Up. He argued the deciding factor was the specific interference with the goalkeeper’s arm that prevented routine handling. “We’ve said all season that if a goalkeeper is impeded by an opponent grabbing or holding their arms and therefore they can’t do their job, they’ll be penalized. We’re not just talking about contact with goalkeepers, we’re talking about a specific type of contact when the goalkeeper’s arms or hands are being interfered with, stopping them doing their job.

“So when you see the best angle on this, you’ll see that that’s what happens from Pablo. And on the video, it’s clear and it’s obvious, and it happens early. And even though it’s not clear and obvious to the referee, because he’s got a huge group of players in a penalty area, and it’s difficult to see, when the VAR sees this, of course, they have to get involved.”

The audio shows the VAR team identifying Pablo’s action on Raya as the most significant contact, while also flagging Leandro Trossard holding Pablo and Declan Rice impeding Konstantinos Mavropanos. The exchange includes the VAR panel recommending an on-field review: “VAR: It’s literally just a possible foul on Raya, what I’m seeing in terms of that.” and “VAR: Chris [Kavanagh, referee], I’m going to recommend an on-field review for a possible foul on the goalkeeper, but there are some other incidents to look at while you’re at the monitor as well.” The referee then confirms the decision: “After review, West Ham number?” “19.” “Foul.”

Webb said officials aim to identify actions that are impactful on a player’s ability to perform. “When they’re trying to identify what should be penalized, they’re looking for situations that are impactful,” he said. He also noted the wider nature of the issue across the division, citing Brighton & Hove Albion manager Fabian Hürzeler’s unusual step of enlisting a Mixed Martial Arts fighter to help with penalty-box duels. Webb confirmed further discussions with clubs and stakeholders will follow. “We consult all the time with the clubs, with the fan groups, with a range of other stakeholders about the type of game that they want to see and how they want us to officiate it,” Webb concluded. “This season’s been a little bit more unique than previous ones about the number of contacts in the penalty area, and it does create a challenge for the officials. ]”