Premier League
Opta Model Turns Tottenham–West Ham Finish Into Straight Relegation Shootout
Opta gives Tottenham a 19.54% chance to stay and West Ham an 80.46% relegation risk. Final fixtures.
Two late incidents and a small margin of error have left Tottenham and West Ham embroiled in a direct relegation fight with only two matches to play. Georginio Rutter’s 95th-minute goal in Roberto De Zerbi’s first home game and a stoppage-time equaliser conceded to Brighton & Hove Albion have combined with a separate penalty incident involving Mathys Tel and Dominic Calvert-Lewin to leave the picture finely balanced.
Opta’s supercomputer returns a stark assessment. Tottenham sit on 38 actual points with a projected 40.47 and a 19.54% chance of relegation. West Ham are on 36 actual points, predicted to finish on 38.62 with an 80.46% chance of relegation. Burnley and Wolves are confirmed as relegated in Opta’s scenarios, both shown with 100% relegation probability and projected points of 22.78 and 20.41 respectively.
“It’s going to be tough,” Nuno Espírito Santo admitted when reflecting on West Ham’s chances of survival after Sunday’s bitter reverse against Arsenal . Tough, but not impossible: Opta’s model sends the Hammers tumbling out in four of five scenarios.
Spurs remain the stronger side in the calculations. The projection gives them a reasonable edge, though only two points separate the teams in expected totals, leaving the contest liable to be decided on the final day. “It will be tough until the last minute against Everton,” he warned after getting a firm grasp of just how mentally fragile his roster is.
There is a clear route by which Tottenham could secure safety before the last Sunday in May. Should West Ham fail to beat Newcastle United at St. James’ Park, Spurs would mathematically guarantee survival with a win over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday, May 19. Even so, history offers a warning: Tottenham have recorded just one win at Stamford Bridge in the last 36 years. Danny Drinkwater was on the Chelsea roster which last lost a home game to Tottenham on April Fool’s Day 2018.
With margins minimal, the remaining fixtures and those single decisive moments are set to determine which capital club remains in the Premier League for 2025/26.
Liverpool
Webb explains why Sesko’s goal stood in Manchester United’s 3–2 win
Webb says VAR could not be certain that Sesko’s goal came off his hand, so the decision stood still.
Chief refereeing officer Howard Webb has outlined why Benjamin Šeško’s strike in Manchester United’s 3–2 win over Liverpool remained valid despite footage that appears to show the ball brushing the striker’s hand.
Liverpool goalkeeper Freddie Woodman parried a header into Šeško and the ball appeared to brush the forward’s hand before rolling into the net. VAR carried out a lengthy review but the on-field decision was not overturned for handball.
Webb said the replay material suggested contact but stressed that VAR must reach a level of certainty to intervene. “The clip speaks for itself. I think it probably does hit the hand,” Webb told Match Officials Mic’d Up. “But of course, the VAR need that conclusivity. They need to be absolutely certain that it does.
“It doesn’t matter what we think, it’s what they think. We do ask them to be sure that something needs acting on. Certainly Šeško doesn’t deliberately handle this, he doesn’t make himself big. It’s all very natural.
“But of course, the laws of the game require any goal that comes off the hand from the player who scores immediately, the goal needs to be disallowed. That means the VAR has no option but to start looking for that.
“Sometimes it looks like they’re being too forensic and you hear the VAR looking from various angles. They want to get it right, if it does conclusively come off the arm. But they don’t get to that level of certainty.
“They probably think it does [hit Šeško’s hand] as well, but they need to be absolutely categorical to get involved. They couldn’t find it. That’s why the on-field decision stood.”
Liverpool manager Arne Slot criticised VAR after the game and Webb’s remarks are likely to increase frustration. “If it was a touch, which I think it is, in a ball sport it has a certain curve and it changes it must be a contact, then we should have a debate if that is enough to disallow a goal,” Slot fumed after the defeat.
Liverpool
Seven centre-back options for Liverpool after Konaté uncertainty
Konaté uncertainty forces Liverpool to target seven centre-backs this summer to rebuild depth. this.
Liverpool face a defensive crossroads this summer with Ibrahima Konaté’s future unresolved. The Frenchman has hinted at a contract extension, but a recent report suggested talks remain at a stalemate and a renewal looks increasingly unlikely. If Konaté departs for free, the Reds would be left with Virgil van Dijk, the injury-prone Joe Gomez and the youngsters Giovanni Leoni and Jérémy Jacquet as specialist options, creating a clear need for reinforcements.
Micky van de Ven: The 25-year-old Tottenham defender combines speed, physicality and a left foot that would interest Liverpool. His Premier League experience and athletic profile would be an immediate upgrade for a defence in need of consistency, though he would likely command a significant fee.
Luka Vušković: Tottenham own the 19-year-old centre back, who has spent this season on loan at Hamburg. Vušković made 29 appearances, scored six goals, won Rookie of the Month four times and earned Bundesliga Goal of the Month in December for a scorpion kick. His composure, physicality and aerial threat make him a highly rated prospect and an expensive target.
Jan Paul van Hecke: A fully fledged Netherlands international, the 25-year-old has grown into a ball-playing centre back at Brighton & Hove Albion. Brighton have conceded fewer than nearly all Premier League sides this term in part because of van Hecke, who also offers set-piece threat with six goal involvements in the league this season.
Marcos Senesi: Bournemouth’s 29-year-old would represent a cost-effective option, available on a free transfer. Senesi led Bournemouth defensively with 11.4 defensive contributions per 90, the second most among centre backs, and ranks among the division’s leaders for goal involvements and accurate passes per 90.
Castello Lukeba: The 23-year-old left-footed France international has made 28 appearances for RB Leipzig this season. His pace when tracking runners, strength and passing accuracy present a complete profile, and reports link him with a Leipzig exit.
António Silva: The 22-year-old Portugal international has 20 caps and 181 appearances for Benfica. With his contract expiring in 2027 and a renewal looking unlikely, Benfica are reportedly open to a cut-price exit.
Joel Ordóñez: The 22-year-old centre back has impressed at Club Brugge this decade, recently making his 125th appearance for the Belgian side.
Each option presents a different balance of experience, cost and immediate readiness as Liverpool prepare for a summer where centre-back recruitment looks essential.
Man Utd
United’s Summer Plan: Where Éderson Would Fit in Midfield
United weigh Éderson as a Casemiro-like ball winner to pair with Mainoo and Bruno. for 2025/26 plans
Manchester United are continuing to assess central midfield options ahead of a pivotal summer transfer window as the club prepares to return to the Champions League. Interest in Atalanta’s Éderson has reportedly gathered pace as the club weighs alternatives ahead of targeted offers.
Éderson is viewed as a potentially more affordable option while he approaches the final year of his Atalanta contract, compared with targets such as Elliot Anderson, Sandro Tonali and Carlos Baleba, who could push fees much higher. Sky Sports report that interest in $54 million (£40 million) rated Éderson has “stepped up” and that West Ham’s Mateus Fernandes is also being tracked. The suggestion is that United want to be ready to make offers once their priority targets are finalised.
Both Sky Sports and the Daily Mail have cautioned that speculation of an agreed transfer for Éderson was premature. United’s chances, however, have improved after Atlético Madrid moved their focus to João Gomes of Wolverhampton Wanderers.
At 26, Éderson has an outside shot at World Cup selection but is named in Brazil’s preliminary squad, which could make arranging a move easier. By contrast, Elliot Anderson would arrive later if England’s World Cup involvement continues. Tonali and Baleba will not be at the tournament after Italy and Cameroon, respectively, failed to qualify.
The role Éderson would occupy at Old Trafford depends on other arrivals. If Kobbie Mainoo is restored as the deep-lying playmaker under Michael Carrick, who now looks destined to become the new permanent manager, Éderson would offer a complementary, all-action ball-winning presence in the Casemiro mould alongside Bruno Fernandes at No. 10.
On his strengths, Tiago Nunes, Éderson’s former manager at Corinthians, told Sky Sports in 2024: “He has two main strengths,” Tiago Nunes, Éderson’s former manager at Corinthians, told Sky Sports in 2024. “Firstly, on the pitch, he has great physical strength, with the ability to play box-to-box, back and forth, sustaining the pace of the game. Secondly, he has a very strong mentality, with a very clear awareness of what he wants.”
United’s tiered recruitment approach could still produce as many as three midfield signings, each from a different price bracket, as the club prepares for 2025/26.
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