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Opta Model Turns Tottenham–West Ham Finish Into Straight Relegation Shootout

Opta gives Tottenham a 19.54% chance to stay and West Ham an 80.46% relegation risk. Final fixtures.

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Two late incidents and a small margin of error have left Tottenham and West Ham embroiled in a direct relegation fight with only two matches to play. Georginio Rutter’s 95th-minute goal in Roberto De Zerbi’s first home game and a stoppage-time equaliser conceded to Brighton & Hove Albion have combined with a separate penalty incident involving Mathys Tel and Dominic Calvert-Lewin to leave the picture finely balanced.

Opta’s supercomputer returns a stark assessment. Tottenham sit on 38 actual points with a projected 40.47 and a 19.54% chance of relegation. West Ham are on 36 actual points, predicted to finish on 38.62 with an 80.46% chance of relegation. Burnley and Wolves are confirmed as relegated in Opta’s scenarios, both shown with 100% relegation probability and projected points of 22.78 and 20.41 respectively.

“It’s going to be tough,” Nuno Espírito Santo admitted when reflecting on West Ham’s chances of survival after Sunday’s bitter reverse against Arsenal . Tough, but not impossible: Opta’s model sends the Hammers tumbling out in four of five scenarios.

Spurs remain the stronger side in the calculations. The projection gives them a reasonable edge, though only two points separate the teams in expected totals, leaving the contest liable to be decided on the final day. “It will be tough until the last minute against Everton,” he warned after getting a firm grasp of just how mentally fragile his roster is.

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There is a clear route by which Tottenham could secure safety before the last Sunday in May. Should West Ham fail to beat Newcastle United at St. James’ Park, Spurs would mathematically guarantee survival with a win over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday, May 19. Even so, history offers a warning: Tottenham have recorded just one win at Stamford Bridge in the last 36 years. Danny Drinkwater was on the Chelsea roster which last lost a home game to Tottenham on April Fool’s Day 2018.

With margins minimal, the remaining fixtures and those single decisive moments are set to determine which capital club remains in the Premier League for 2025/26.

Chelsea

Chavarría begins Chelsea spell with Cucurella comparisons already in view

Chelsea have added Pep Chavarría, a left back with energy, crossing volume and clear ambitions.

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Chelsea’s latest arrival, Pep Chavarría, has stepped into a role that naturally invites comparison with Marc Cucurella, even if the numbers do not mirror the full story. The left back has joined on a five-year deal and arrives with the challenge of offering the same kind of value from wide areas after Cucurella’s summer departure.

Chavarría may not share Cucurella’s distinctive image, but he does bring his own case for optimism. Speaking to Chelsea’s in-house media after signing on Wednesday, the 28-year-old outlined a profile built on energy, balance and intensity.

“As a player, I love to attack, defend, box-to-box and I have a lot of intensity,” the 28-year-old told Chelsea ’s in-house media team after he signed a five-year contract on Wednesday. “I have a lot of energy on the pitch. They are my biggest abilities. I have played in Spain all my life, and for me the Premier League is the best league in the world right now, with a lot of quality and intensity. I think that it’s the best league for me.”

The statistical picture is revealing. During the 2025-26 league season, Chavarría attempted far more crosses than Cucurella, posting 97 per 90 compared with 43, while also creating 27 chances. Cucurella, meanwhile, finished with 39 chances created and four assists in 34 appearances. Chavarría made 33 appearances and logged 2,681 minutes.

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Rayo Vallecano’s use of him was built around steady service from the flanks, and Chelsea may be looking for a similar outlet more often. The club crossed less frequently than almost half of the Premier League last season, but that pattern could shift under Xabi Alonso.

Alonso is understood to have been the key driver behind the move for his compatriot, which is reported to have cost $28.8 million (€25 million). Chavarría also spoke warmly about settling in, saying, “As a person, I am very friendly and familiar,” and “I’m very happy to be here and I want to meet my new teammates.”

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Chelsea

Manchester City Consider Fernández Move as Rodri Talks Shape Midfield Plans

City’s interest in Fernández grows as Chelsea hold firm and Rodri’s future begins to shape.

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Manchester City are being linked with a major summer approach for Chelsea midfielder Enzo Fernández, with Enzo Maresca said to be open to the idea of a reunion.

The speculation around Fernández had eased after a blunt statement, particularly with the 25-year-old due to rejoin Chelsea on Wednesday after the 2026 World Cup. Even so, the possibility of a move to the Etihad Stadium has returned after City reportedly made contact with his camp, according to Fabrizio Romano.

Chelsea’s position remains clear. They are said to be demanding £120 million ($162 million) and are not expected to lower that figure. City, meanwhile, are understood to be hoping to negotiate, but the gap between the two sides is substantial.

Any move would also sit alongside City’s wider midfield planning, with the club preparing for a future without Rodri. The newly crowned Golden Ball and World Cup winner is reportedly set to join Barcelona this summer, leaving Manchester with one year left on his current deal. City rejected Barcelona’s opening bid of $52 million (£38.5 million), although discussions are still ongoing.

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The club are also expected to sign World Cup breakout star Ayyoub Bouaddi, though reports indicate the teenager is not being lined up to replace Rodri directly.

Fernández may now be viewed as the player best placed to fill that role. He has already established himself as one of the Premier League’s leading midfielders and produced his strongest form under Maresca.

A return to working with the Italian coach, this time in sky blue, could also appeal after Fernández’s public falling out with the Chelsea hierarchy. That tension followed a two-game suspension over comments about a possible transfer last season.

City’s midfield is already well stocked after the summer arrival of Elliot Anderson from Nottingham Forest for $153.9 million (£116 million), while Nico González, Tijjani Reijnders and Mateo Kovačić are also in the squad.

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Arsenal

Why Lewis-Skelly Could Appeal to Chelsea and Manchester United

Lewis-Skelly is attracting interest, with Chelsea and Manchester United weighing a possible move.

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Myles Lewis-Skelly may be entering a difficult stage in his Arsenal career after the club’s $101 million (£75 million) move for Bruno Guimarães reduced the space for him in the squad. The teenager’s minutes fell in 2025-26, yet he still managed to start in central midfield ahead of Martín Zubimendi in the Champions League final alongside Declan Rice.

Even so, the market is already circling. football.london report that Chelsea and Manchester United have both been offered Lewis-Skelly, with Arsenal possibly open to a sale. Chelsea have held a long-term interest in the player and, according to the report, a “good offer” could be difficult for the club to turn down.

Sky Sports add that Chelsea have made a “new enquiry” for the England international. Arsenal, however, “do not want to sell” to a local rival, which points to the possibility that the player has been put forward by representatives or intermediaries who believe his minutes could decline further if he stays in north London.

For Chelsea, the issue is practical as much as strategic. The club are trying to trim a bloated squad, but Marc Cucurella’s sale to Real Madrid earlier this summer means they need a direct replacement at left back. Rayo Vallecano fullback Pep Chavarría is said to be close to Stamford Bridge, though the 28-year-old does not carry the same long-term appeal as Lewis-Skelly.

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Manchester United would also see the 18-year-old as a player who covers more than one need. He can operate at left back and in midfield, giving them short-term depth for Luke Shaw as well as a longer-term option. Their midfield picture is also thin, with only Kobbie Mainoo, Youri Tielemans and Andrey Santos available as senior central midfielders, or four if Mason Mount is counted in a deeper role.

The Guardian report that Lewis-Skelly could be priced at around $61 million (£45 million). Given the sums United have already spent on Santos and Tielemans this summer, the deal would sit within reach. Arsenal, meanwhile, may decide that a player not central to Arteta’s plans is still valuable as a source of major transfer income.

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