Arsenal
Opta Model Recasts 2025/26 Premier League Landscape After Weekend Upsets
Opta projections show Arsenal 97.77% to win; Man City 2.23%. Key European and relegation odds. 2025.
A weekend of shocks and dropped points has shifted the Opta supercomputer’s view of the 2025/26 Premier League season. With the top two away for the Carabao Cup final, teams below have been jockeying for position in the race for Champions League places.
Manchester United were held to a 2–2 draw with Bournemouth in controversial circumstances. Liverpool fell 2–1 to Brighton & Hove Albion. Chelsea suffered a 3–0 defeat to Everton at the Hill Dickinson Stadium.
Opta’s projection still favours Arsenal for the title. The model lists Arsenal on 70 current points with an expected points total of 84.80 and a title chance of 97.77%. Manchester City sit on 61 points with an expected 74.47 and a 2.23% title chance. The statisticians are not looking past Arsenal.
On Champions League qualification the supercomputer gives Manchester United (55 current points, expected 66.09) an 86.25% chance, while Aston Villa (51, expected 64.13) has a 66.68% chance. Liverpool are projected on 49 current points with an expected 60.53 and a 27.33% chance. Chelsea stand on 48 current points, expected 58.63, with a 13.39% chance. Brentford (45, expected 56.09) are at 3.64%; Everton (46, expected 54.96) 1.37%; Newcastle (42, expected 54.12) 0.73%; Brighton (43, expected 53.48) 0.53%.
Michael Carrick’s side are still in an imposing position with seven games left to play despite the Bournemouth draw. Unai Emery’s side remain heavy favourites for the final top-four spot, having done most of the early campaign work.
Arne Slot’s side retain a route back into the Champions League thanks in part to England’s strong coefficient. Liam Rosenior’s side face a difficult run and are projected for the Europa League.
At the bottom, Opta’s relegation table places Tottenham on 30 points with a 12.67% relegation chance (expected 40.63). Nottingham Forest are on 29 with a 32.11% chance (expected 38.58). West Ham are on 29 with a 48.44% chance (expected 37.73). Burnley (20, expected 26.34) have a 99.90% chance and Wolves (17, expected 24.94) a 99.94% chance. Sunday’s Tottenham v Nottingham Forest meeting is highlighted as pivotal for both clubs.
Arsenal
Wenger Pushes Back on Rooney’s Take as Arsenal Celebrate Champions League Semi
Wenger rebukes Rooney’s critique after Arsenal’s Champions League semi; focus shifts to final ahead
Wayne Rooney questioned the scale of Arsenal’s emotions on the pitch after Tuesday’s Champions League semifinal win over Atlético Madrid. Standing at the side of the Emirates pitch and commenting for Amazon Prime Video, he observed: “They haven’t won it yet,” and added, “I think the celebrations are a little bit too heavy. Celebrate when you win … but no, they deserve it.”
Arsène Wenger offered a contrasting perspective. Wenger, the only Arsenal manager before Arteta to steer the club to a Champions League final, said on beIN Sport: “They celebrate well tonight which is normal but you want to focus already on the final and the next games,” and defended the players’ reaction: “The celebration is deserved and happiness is normal—absolutely normal—but the next step is to go to the final and win it.”
The moment underlined how Arsenal’s progress has rekindled comparisons with the run to the 2006 final. Wenger’s 2006 side reached the Paris showpiece after a defensive sequence that included 10 successive clean sheets, Barcelona breaking that run only in the 76th minute in the final.
Arteta’s team have shown similar defensive resilience this season. Tuesday’s shutout against Atlético was Arsenal’s ninth clean sheet in 14 Champions League games this term. David Raya has been central to that record, facing an average of less than three shots on target per game in European competition this term, a mark described as comfortably the best on the continent. Atlético managed to force the Gunners’ goalkeeper into two saves before their European campaign faltered.
The exchange between Rooney and Wenger also highlighted contrasting touchline styles. Wenger was not a very demonstrative manager on Arsenal’s touchline, unlike Arteta, yet even the reserved Frenchman accepted the players’ celebration while pointing to the need for focus on the final and the matches that follow.
Arsenal
Porto Complete Signing of Jakub Kiwior as Arsenal Secure Structured Fees
Porto have signed Jakub Kiwior from Arsenal; add-ons and future sales could yield the Gunners funds.
Portuguese champions Porto have confirmed the signing of Jakub Kiwior from Arsenal. Porto’s statement outlined structured payments: Arsenal could receive an extra $5.9 million “depending on the achievement of certain objectives,” while any subsequent transfer for Kiwior would generate up to $2.4 million more for the Gunners.
Kiwior joined Arsenal from Spezia for a fee in the region of $22.9 million and spent two seasons largely as a squad player. He was never a first-choice option but developed into a dependable understudy. His most notable run came late last season when he was required to fill in after Gabriel’s injury and produced a string of composed displays in Champions League knockout ties against Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain.
Mikel Arteta publicly acknowledged that contribution. “He deserves a lot of credit because he hasn’t played too much throughout many months and suddenly he has been thrown into the most difficult context,” the Arsenal boss said. “At the highest level, playing against the best opponents when you haven’t had the physical rhythm or the confidence to do it, and I think he’s been exceptional.”
Those performances nevertheless coincided with a period in which Arsenal adapted well without him on the pitch. The club is operating at a delicate moment in the Premier League financial landscape and must weigh sales as carefully as purchases. Removing one versatile left-footed defender from the squad wage bill and transfer list creates space to pursue a younger, enhanced option for that role.
From Arsenal’s perspective, the deal preserves potential upside through performance-related add-ons and future-transfer payments while allowing the team to target a direct upgrade in a position they have identified. Even better, they already know how well he will fit in.
Arsenal
Ødegaard and Havertz cleared as Atlético deal with late-night hotel disturbance
Ødegaard and Havertz available; Atlético staff woken by fireworks outside their hotel before match..
Mikel Arteta confirmed a timely boost for Arsenal with Martin Ødegaard and Kai Havertz available for selection for Tuesday’s Champions League semifinal second leg against Atlético Madrid. Havertz had missed the first leg in Spain after damaging his hamstring against Newcastle United, a setback that sidelined him for that match. Viktor Gyökeres has since scored three goals across the subsequent two matches but “lacks the craft and guile of his teammate,” leaving Arteta with tactical choices to consider given Atlético’s typical defensive setup.
Against an opponent likely to press aggressively in spells while affording limited space behind their backline, Havertz is described in the original report as the more natural option through the middle. “We need options,” the Arsenal boss warned, “we need the capacity to play different games, whether it’s from the start or after. So it’s really, really good news for us to have them both back.” That flexibility is important for a manager preparing for a two-legged tie.
Arsenal’s preparations have been brightened by the return of those two players. Atlético’s preparations were disrupted on the eve of the match after multiple members of the playing and coaching staff were thought to have been woken at around 1.30 a.m. by fireworks set off outside Atlético’s hotel in east London. A second batch were released 20 minutes later, which convinced club staff this was a targeted approach. MARCA report that the club swiftly complained to UEFA about this interference.
An additional detail is that Atlético chose to stay in a different hotel to the one they used when they met Arsenal earlier in the Champions League this season. Manager Diego Simeone said this was down to finances while club president Enrique Cerezo laughed it off: “The economy is the economy.”
Off the field Arsenal continue to wait on Jurriën Timber. The fullback has not featured since being forced off with a groin problem against Everton in mid-March. Arsenal have lost four of six domestic matches in Timber’s absence, tumbling out of both cup competitions and allowing Manchester City back into the Premier League title race. There is no clear timeline for Timber’s return.
