Arsenal
Opta Model Recasts 2025/26 Premier League Landscape After Weekend Upsets
Opta projections show Arsenal 97.77% to win; Man City 2.23%. Key European and relegation odds. 2025.
A weekend of shocks and dropped points has shifted the Opta supercomputer’s view of the 2025/26 Premier League season. With the top two away for the Carabao Cup final, teams below have been jockeying for position in the race for Champions League places.
Manchester United were held to a 2–2 draw with Bournemouth in controversial circumstances. Liverpool fell 2–1 to Brighton & Hove Albion. Chelsea suffered a 3–0 defeat to Everton at the Hill Dickinson Stadium.
Opta’s projection still favours Arsenal for the title. The model lists Arsenal on 70 current points with an expected points total of 84.80 and a title chance of 97.77%. Manchester City sit on 61 points with an expected 74.47 and a 2.23% title chance. The statisticians are not looking past Arsenal.
On Champions League qualification the supercomputer gives Manchester United (55 current points, expected 66.09) an 86.25% chance, while Aston Villa (51, expected 64.13) has a 66.68% chance. Liverpool are projected on 49 current points with an expected 60.53 and a 27.33% chance. Chelsea stand on 48 current points, expected 58.63, with a 13.39% chance. Brentford (45, expected 56.09) are at 3.64%; Everton (46, expected 54.96) 1.37%; Newcastle (42, expected 54.12) 0.73%; Brighton (43, expected 53.48) 0.53%.
Michael Carrick’s side are still in an imposing position with seven games left to play despite the Bournemouth draw. Unai Emery’s side remain heavy favourites for the final top-four spot, having done most of the early campaign work.
Arne Slot’s side retain a route back into the Champions League thanks in part to England’s strong coefficient. Liam Rosenior’s side face a difficult run and are projected for the Europa League.
At the bottom, Opta’s relegation table places Tottenham on 30 points with a 12.67% relegation chance (expected 40.63). Nottingham Forest are on 29 with a 32.11% chance (expected 38.58). West Ham are on 29 with a 48.44% chance (expected 37.73). Burnley (20, expected 26.34) have a 99.90% chance and Wolves (17, expected 24.94) a 99.94% chance. Sunday’s Tottenham v Nottingham Forest meeting is highlighted as pivotal for both clubs.
Arsenal
Summer transfer sweep: Premier League clubs linked to major midfield, defensive and striking targets
Premier League clubs pursue midfielders, defenders and forwards across Europe amid transfer talk…
A fresh wave of transfer speculation links several Premier League clubs with targets across Europe, with interest touching midfield, defence and forward lines.
Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur have both been associated with a move for Beşiktaş captain Orkun Kökçü. Manchester United’s interim manager Michael Carrick has suggested Everton’s Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall as a possible option; Dewsbury-Hall is also on Aston Villa’s radar.
Manchester City are reported to be leading the race for Sporting CP midfielder Morten Hjulmand after Juventus ended their interest. Another Sporting player, left back Maxi Araújo, has attracted attention from both Chelsea and Tottenham following scouting reports.
Chelsea are open to offers for striker Liam Delap this summer, with Newcastle United among the interested parties and a fee of around $53.4 million (£40 million) indicated. Arsenal have been linked with Paris Saint-Germain winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, but PSG are said to be unwilling to sell.
Liverpool could see Cody Gakpo depart, with Tottenham among the suitors; such a move would free space for Liverpool to pursue Newcastle forward Anthony Gordon. Scouts from Liverpool have also monitored Midtjylland winger Darío Osorio in Europa League action against Nottingham Forest. Separately, Liverpool have renewed contact with Real Madrid midfielder Eduardo Camavinga and are reported to be ahead of Chelsea in pursuit of a summer deal.
Inter Milan’s sporting director has been observing several players across Europe, with Arsenal defender Riccardo Calafiori noted as a recent target. Marcus Thuram could leave Inter despite interest from Saudi clubs; the striker is reportedly keen on a Premier League move, with Aston Villa and Newcastle having made approaches.
Other items of note: Tottenham’s potential relegation could prompt Manchester United to target Archie Gray for a reduced fee. Harry Maguire has reportedly turned down approaches from Everton, Sunderland, Tottenham and West Ham United to sign a new contract with Manchester United. Bayern Munich have shown interest in Barcelona centre back Pau Cubarsí. Barcelona are said to be interested in signing Chelsea midfielder Enzo Fernández, with Chelsea willing to accept Frenkie de Jong as part of a swap. Atlético Madrid are pursuing Brentford striker Igor Thiago, who may be allowed to leave for $57.8 million (€50 million).
Arsenal
Arteta opens up on psychological cost of Arsenal’s trophy drought ahead of Carabao Cup final
Arteta admits the years without trophies have taken a mental toll as Arsenal eye Carabao Cup. Chance.
Mikel Arteta has acknowledged the emotional strain of prolonged periods without silverware as Arsenal prepare for their first realistic chance at a trophy this season in the Carabao Cup final.
Arteta said the desire to win has never been in doubt but admitted the years without success have been hard to accept. “Obviously the willingness to win has always been there, and that doesn’t change if I win one, two, three or five [trophies],” Arteta reflected. “But, yes, it has been difficult to accept because I want to win every competition that I’m involved in.
He added that the drought has brought both urgency and renewed determination. “When you have been in this position and gone years without winning a trophy, obviously it adds more necessity, but also more drive because you really want it. And that’s something that we have. That is something really important for us and something that we’ve been trying to achieve for a while and now we have the opportunity to do it.
Arteta also stressed the need for honesty and effort against superior opponents. “But you also have to understand in sport that sometimes other players and other teams are better than you, and what you have to do is to be able to look in the mirror, give absolutely everything, and be better than them and that’s what we are chasing.”
The trip to Wembley will be the ninth time Arteta has visited England’s national stadium across his career as a player and manager. He arrives with an unblemished record there, dating back to an FA Cup semifinal win in 2014 and most recently a victory over City in the Community Shield in 2023.
Despite that record, Arteta refused to afford his side any automatic advantage. “No, there are no favorites,” he stressed. “We have to play in a final to earn that status. But let’s keep [his perfect record] that way and hopefully in a few hours we will do the same.”
Arsenal
Guardiola Bristles at Quadruple Talk, Points to City’s Four-Trophy Campaign
Guardiola dismissed quadruple talk and pointed to City’s 2018-19 haul of four domestic trophies….
On the eve of a Carabao Cup final meeting with Arsenal, Pep Guardiola dismissed suggestions that his rivals were mounting a realistic quadruple challenge. Asked how hard it is to assemble four trophies in a season, Guardiola cut across the premise and drew attention back to his own side.
When a reporter noted Arsenal had won a treble and therefore come close, Guardiola replied: “I mean, you’ve won a treble,” and, after a pause, added: “And quadruple as well.” He went on to explain he was referring to the 2018–19 campaign when Manchester City collected four domestic trophies: the Premier League, FA Cup, Carabao Cup and Community Shield. “I know it’s not as prestigious, like you pretend,” he sniffed with a shrug of his shoulders, “but we did it.”
That remark underlined a recurring point for Guardiola: the status of the Community Shield. He has long expressed frustration at how that one-off season opener is viewed. As he has said in the past: “When Manchester City win the Community Shield, it’s not a title,” he once seethed. “When another team wins the Community Shield, it’s a title.”
Guardiola’s comments arrived shortly after City’s hopes of sweeping all competitions were ended by Real Madrid in the Champions League round of 16 this season. He also reflected on his relationship with Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta, a former assistant at City, and how distance has changed their dynamic. “I don’t have time to go to London, and I don’t think he has time to come to Manchester,” Guardiola admitted. “When we were here [at City] we saw each other five or six hours every day, so the relationship is completely different after his five or six years in London.”
The intervention was measured and pointed: Guardiola would not entertain hype about a rival quadruple while emphasising a past season in which City secured four domestic trophies and pressing his case over how those honours are categorised.
