Arsenal
Opta’s Model Favors Arsenal as City’s Title Probability Falls
Opta gives Arsenal the edge to win the title while City and others battle for European places today
A recent Opta simulation gives Arsenal a clear statistical advantage in the title race after a 2-1 win over Chelsea on Sunday. The model projects Arsenal to finish with 82.65 points and assigns them an 82.71% chance of remaining top by the end of May. Manchester City are forecast to reach 77.28 points with a 17.25% title probability. Arsenal lead Manchester City by five points in the table after that victory, which came against a Chelsea side reduced to 10 men.
Mikel Arteta was forthright about his mood: He was “ery, very happy.” The model’s confidence sits alongside recognised issues at Arsenal, such as a tendency to concede after scoring and a lack of open-play attacking edge. Patrick Vieira questioned the performance despite the result: “When you are top of the Champions League and Premier League table, you expect Arsenal to go forward. It was difficult for Arsenal to take chances. The expectation is higher, you expect more from Arsenal.”
Pep Guardiola downplayed an outright title push after City’s victory over Leeds United, saying, “It’s important to make a real step to qualify for the Champions League next season,” and Opta gives City a 99.92% chance of securing Champions League qualification. The simulation places Manchester United, Aston Villa, Liverpool and Chelsea behind City in projected points, with the following predicted points and qualification probabilities: Manchester United 65.66 points (56.47%), Aston Villa 67.09 points (69.30%), Liverpool 65.23 points (54.49%), Chelsea 60.53 points (16.22%).
Aston Villa dropped to fourth after a shock defeat to Wolverhampton Wanderers, and Unai Emery said, “They [Manchester United and Chelsea] are favorites [for Champions League] because of the strength they have. We are there at the moment, but normally they are favorites.” Manchester United have won six of seven since Michael Carrick’s appointment and beat Crystal Palace on Sunday. Bruno Fernandes warned, “There are a lot of games to go still, and it is important that we don’t feel that we are in the position that we need to be. We need to make as many points as we can.”
At the bottom, Opta’s relegation projections show Wolves and Burnley as the most at risk. The model gives Leeds a 2.11% chance of relegation, Tottenham 4.90%, Nottingham Forest 24.02%, West Ham 69.97%, Burnley 98.58% and Wolves 99.98%. Tottenham remain without a win in 2026 after a 2-1 defeat at Fulham, where Igor Tudor railed against the “home referee.” Yves Bissouma conceded the scale of the problem: “We lost again. It is not easy, especially for us, for the club. It is not good for everyone.” He added, “We know this is a big emergency. We need to change a lot of things, we need to put effort into the game to try and win games. At the moment, it is just hard.”
Chelsea coach Rosenior has urged remedying two recurring issues: defending set pieces and ill-discipline, which he sees as the simplest way to challenge the model’s prognosis.
Arsenal
Arteta Questions Touchline Standards After Latest Booking
Arteta said he is tracking rival managers after receiving his second yellow card of the season.
Mikel Arteta has taken aim at what he sees as inconsistent discipline for Premier League managers after collecting his second yellow card of the season on Saturday.
The Arsenal boss said he is keeping records of rival coaches who step beyond their technical area without being punished, insisting he will not ignore what he believes is uneven treatment from officials. Known for his constant energy on the sideline, Arteta argued that others are getting away with behaviour that brings him immediate sanction.
“I do have to be careful,” Arteta said when asked about his caution in his postgame press conference. “And we need to have good sensors there. There are managers that have the record in the league, 36 times in 10 minutes leave the touchline, no yellows.
“So I’m clipping all of that. I have a massive storage of images. So if somebody is going to say, ‘I’m not in the record yet, somebody else has the record.’
“Then it’s 36 yellow cards in 10 minutes for the manager. I don’t know where we’re going to be. Let’s see.”
The issue is more than a matter of irritation. Once a manager reaches three yellow cards, an automatic one-match suspension follows. Six cautions bring a two-game ban, while nine lead to a three-match punishment. With only late October reached, Arteta is already halfway to that first threshold.
That means his next booking would remove him from the touchline for Arsenal’s following match, regardless of any argument he might make with his own “massive storage of images.” Even a spirited defence would not alter the sanction.
His post-match comments did not stop there. Despite Arsenal’s gritty win over Everton, Arteta also criticised the schedule, saying the workload had been far from ideal.
“We’re very happy with the victory, the performance and the week, because we were given a terrible schedule,” Arteta said. “Playing Sunday afternoon, then Wednesday night in Munich, coming here really late on Thursday and then having to play again in the Premier League against a really tough opponent on Saturday at 3 p.m.
“We have overcome some injuries, and I’m really proud of the mentality of the team in the conditions today.”
Arsenal
Arteta Jokes Raya’s Spain Return Will Have to Wait
Arteta says Raya’s Spain move can wait, with Arsenal likely to keep their goalkeeper longer.
Mikel Arteta has played down the idea of David Raya heading back to Spain any time soon, joking that the Arsenal goalkeeper’s next appearance there may only come on holiday.
Raya has made no secret of his long-term wish to play in La Liga. As he put it: “Perhaps, in the future, I could play for a Spanish club. I’m Spanish and I’d love to play there.”
That ambition stands out because Raya has never played professional club football in his home country. Born and raised in Barcelona, he began in the youth ranks at UE Cornellà, which has been owned since April 2026 by Lionel Messi. He left Spain at 16 in 2012, moving to England in search of a career and eventually landing at Blackburn Rovers. After progressing to the first team two years later, he became their starting goalkeeper for the 2017–18 and 2018–19 campaigns.
Brentford later spotted his talent, and Arteta judged in 2023 that Raya was the upgrade Arsenal needed over Aaron Ramsdale. Since then, the goalkeeper has collected three Premier League Golden Gloves across the last three seasons and, by Monday night, could be in position to claim the Yashin Trophy at the 2026 Ballon d’Or ceremony.
Raya has also been a regular presence in Spain squads over the last four years, even if he is not a first-choice international starter. That has brought him both a European Championship and World Cup winner’s medal, yet one major piece remains missing from his résumé: a spell in La Liga.
Arteta was not in the mood to encourage an early return. “I think David has to play in Spain at some point … on the beach with his friends in the summer,” the Gunners boss said. “For the next few years, he needs to play here for Arsenal .”
That timing matters, because Raya is now into the final two years of his Arsenal contract, which ends in June 2028. He will be just short of 33 when it expires. Arteta’s comments suggest Arsenal may soon try to extend that deal well beyond 2028.
If Raya does chase La Liga while still at his peak, the decision point may come no later than 2028. Barcelona would appear the natural fit, though the club’s 2025 move for Joan García complicates that route. Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid could also be possible in time, depending on how the situations around Thibaut Courtois and Jan Oblak develop.
Arsenal
Villa’s Win Over City Triggers Another Opta Refresh
Villa beat City, Arsenal stay close, and Opta updates the title, Europe and relegation outlooks.
Aston Villa have delivered the Premier League’s first defeat of Manchester City this season, and they are also the first side to take points from them. Unai Emery’s team earned that landmark result at Villa Park, where City were below their best and paid for it. Gianluigi Donnarumma and Marc Guéhi were both singled out for especially poor showings, Nicolas Jackson struck on loan to make the difference, and Zion Suzuki contributed six saves across the 90 minutes.
City remain top of the current Premier League standings, but the performance offered the first domestic indication that they are not untouchable. Arsenal followed by matching them on points after beating Everton, leaving the title race level at the summit and Arsenal second only on goal difference.
That Arsenal victory came with Bukayo Saka unavailable and possibly out until Christmas. The Gunners were short of natural creativity, but they compensated by rediscovering the set-piece strength that served them so well last season.
With those results, and two others on Saturday, Opta’s supercomputer updated its predictions again.
The title model now has Arsenal first with 79.55 predicted points and a 53.82% chance of finishing champions. Manchester City are second on 76.11 points and 34.39%. Brighton remain the only other side above 5%, while Liverpool are at 3.29% and Chelsea at 1.42%.
The Champions League outlook keeps Arsenal and City well clear, with both above 90% to qualify. Brighton stand at 58.37%, Liverpool at 46.70%, Chelsea at 31.28% and Aston Villa at 21.66%. Brentford, Leeds and Everton are further back, and Manchester United’s five-match winless run has left them below 6%.
At the lower end, Tottenham have made a notable move in the right direction. Two wins in a row have cut their relegation chance to 14%, and the model now projects them to finish 13th. That is not especially strong, but it is a considerable improvement on consecutive 17th-place finishes in the last two seasons.
