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Opta Model Still Backs Arsenal as Cup Defeats Shift Momentum

Opta model still rates Arsenal top after cup losses; City short odds, Villa rise in Champions chase.

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Arsenal’s recent defeats in domestic cup competition have altered the mood around the club, but Opta’s simulation still places Mikel Arteta’s team firmly on top of the Premier League. Southampton’s 2–1 win that eliminated Arsenal from the FA Cup and the north London side’s loss in the Carabao Cup final have intensified talk that Arteta’s side are primed to ’bottle’ a title run, but the numbers tell a less dramatic story.

Opta’s supercomputer lists Arsenal with 70 current points and an expected points tally of 84.57, giving them a 97% title probability. Manchester City sit second on 61 points with expected points of 74.82 and a 3% chance of overtaking Arsenal in the title race. Opta notes Arsenal’s title chance has only dropped by 0.77% since the two teams last played a league fixture.

Manchester City reinforced their recent cup momentum with a 4–0 FA Cup quarterfinal win over Liverpool in which Erling Haaland scored a hat-trick. That result, alongside City’s Carabao Cup success, has shifted perception, and City’s probability will increase significantly if they beat Arsenal at the Etihad on April 19.

Behind the top two, Opta’s projections show Manchester United on 55 points with expected points of 66.06 and an 86.33% chance of reaching the Champions League places. Aston Villa sit close behind on 54 points, expected 65.12 and a 77.38% probability. Liverpool (49 points) and Chelsea (48 points) have lower projected chances of finishing in the top five, at 21.95% and 10.12% respectively, while Brentford and Everton have only slim hopes.

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At the bottom, the model highlights Burnley and Wolves as overwhelmingly likely to be relegated, while West Ham and Tottenham have seen their survival odds shift after recent results. Tottenham’s recent managerial change to Roberto De Zerbi followed Igor Tudor’s 44-day spell, and a home loss to Nottingham Forest has increased Spurs’ relegation probability to 26.33%.

Al Nassr

Ronaldo at 100 SPL Games: How the First 100 in Saudi Stack Up Against Europe

Ronaldo reached 100 SPL appearances, scored twice in his centenary and early league numbers compared.

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Cristiano Ronaldo reached 100 Saudi Pro League appearances in Friday’s match against Al-Najma. He scored twice in that 100th game as Al-Nassr won 5–2. Ronaldo joined the SPL in early 2023 and the centenary milestone invites a straightforward comparison with his first 100 matches in Europe’s top leagues.

The five-time Ballon d’Or winner began his rise as a teenager in the Premier League with Manchester United. Across his first spell at the club (2003–09), and a brief return (2021–23), he totalled 236 Premier League appearances, 103 goals and 47 assists. In his first 100 Premier League matches he recorded 19 goals and 14 assists, according to StatMuse.

Ronaldo’s most prolific period arrived at Real Madrid over nine seasons (2009–18). In La Liga he made 292 appearances, scoring 311 goals and providing 95 assists. In his first 100 La Liga matches he scored 111 goals, including 14 hat tricks, according to StatMuse. That 111-goal start in Spain is 14 more goals than his output in the SPL, a gap that highlights how his scoring rates have varied across stages of his career.

After La Liga, Ronaldo moved to Serie A with Juventus (2018–22). He made 98 league appearances there, scoring 81 goals and adding 21 assists. Individual honours followed, including Serie A MVP for 2018–19 and Serie A Best Striker in 2020–21.

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Beyond domestic leagues, Ronaldo has been prolific in European competition. In the UEFA Champions League he has 140 goals and 50 assists in 183 appearances.

The simple arithmetic of first-100 appearances underlines a career of evolving output. Age and the comparative level of the Saudi Pro League are referenced frequently when measuring his current returns against the double-digit scoring feats he produced earlier in La Liga and other top flights.

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Analytics & Stats

De Zerbi’s tactical choices to steady Tottenham for the run-in

Roberto De Zerbi must prepare Tottenham by April 12 for a run of fixtures beginning at Sunderland. .

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Tottenham have moved decisively to appoint Roberto De Zerbi, offering the former Brighton & Hove Albion coach a reported five-year deal as the club seeks to preserve its Premier League status. The immediate task is stark: De Zerbi must prepare a squad that sees itself capable of European nights to avoid a slide that could leave trips to Portsmouth and Preston North End next season on the agenda.

He has until April 12 to ready the group for the slog ahead, with Spurs next visiting Sunderland in the Premier League. Tactical flexibility is likely, but a return to the 4-2-3-1 that has been his default across much of his career is a realistic baseline. That shape would place Xavi Simons in a No. 10 role to maximise the Dutchman’s creative influence between the lines.

De Zerbi’s football emphasises artificial transitions and progression through depth. Players must be comfortable on the ball and able to execute efficient passing sequences to escape pressure and create space for forwards. That places a premium on Tottenham’s most technically secure performers. Captain Cristian Romero and Pedro Porro, alongside Destiny Udogie when he advances, will be central to building from the back, with Micky van de Ven capable of covering when full backs push high.

Midfield options include Archie Gray as a current form pick, with Rodrigo Bentancur likely to be relied upon when fit. Bentancur performed well under Antonio Conte in a structure built on automatisms. Yves Bissouma offers bravery in the build-up and Lucas Bergvall provides carrying ability.

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De Zerbi has varied his approach recently at Marseille and used a back three more often there than previously. A 3-4-2-1 is an option if three fit centre backs are available, with Kevin Danso as a useful third choice.

In attack De Zerbi must lean on Mohammed Kudus for the coming fixtures, pairing him with Xavi Simons between the lines and using Dominic Solanke as a reliable focal point. Randal Kolo Muani offers rotation but Solanke’s ability to retain possession and press is highlighted in this context.

De Zerbi’s admiration for Pep Guardiola is well known, and influences from narrow central combinations championed by others may also inform his set-up at Tottenham.

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Opta Model: Tottenham’s Survival Odds After Igor Tudor Exit

Opta gives Tottenham a 27.00% chance of relegation with seven games left after Tudor’s exit. Update.

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With seven games remaining in the 2025/26 season, Tottenham Hotspur face a precarious run-in after Igor Tudor’s departure. Opta’s supercomputer has updated its projections and places Spurs with a 27.00% chance of relegation. That figure is nearly 24% higher than when former manager Thomas Frank departed the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in early February.

The model treats Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers as virtual certainties to drop. Burnley sit on a 99.90% chance of relegation, marginally above Wolves at 99.88%. Above those two, the table becomes far tighter. West Ham United are in immediate danger, with the supercomputer assigning a 57.03% probability that Nuno Espírito Santo’s side will go down.

Current points and expected points used in the projection show the narrow margins. Leeds have 33 points and expected points of 41.88 (7.21% relegation risk). Nottingham Forest sit on 32 points and 40.94 expected (8.83% risk). Tottenham have 30 points with 38.43 expected. West Ham are one point behind Spurs on 29 and 37.00 expected. Burnley are on 20 points with 26.17 expected and Wolves 17 points with 24.95 expected.

Fixture lists for both clubs help explain the probabilities. Both Spurs and West Ham still face Wolves and Everton at home in matches that could be decisive. Tottenham also have trips or fixtures against Sunderland, Chelsea and Aston Villa and home matches against Brighton, Everton and Leeds. West Ham’s schedule includes Wolves, Crystal Palace, Everton, Brentford, Arsenal and Newcastle, with several difficult games grouped together.

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The model underlines how small margins can determine survival. With just one point separating Tottenham and West Ham, a single result could reshuffle expectations and change which team occupies the relegation positions as the season enters its final weeks.

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