After nine matches Arsenal sit four points clear at the top and Opta’s supercomputer now makes them the probable champions. “It’s very early,” Mikel Arteta told everyone who was willing to listen after Arsenal opened up a four-point lead at the Premier League summit on Sunday. The model weighs historical quirks — none of the last six teams to top the table after nine matches have finished first, Liverpool the most recent in 2019 — alongside a wide range of current data.

Arsenal’s defensive form impressed at the Emirates. David Raya was forced into his first Premier League save since September by Crystal Palace, yet the Eagles could only manage one shot on target. Arsenal themselves had just one goal-bound effort, but Eberechi Eze’s volley supplied the decisive finish. As both Arteta and Jurriën Timber stressed postgame, the Gunners have “a lot” that can be improved. Opta’s 10,000 simulations return Arsenal as champions two-thirds of the time, represented in the model by a 66.35% chance of winning the title.

Manchester City and Liverpool are projected to chase but trail in probability. Opta gives Man City a 14.33% title chance and Liverpool 11.43%. Chelsea (1.77%), Aston Villa (1.14%) and Bournemouth (1.10%) are all long shots by comparison. Bournemouth finished the weekend in second in the table, and their manager reflected caution: “It’s definitely a very good start, but it’s just a start,” Andoni Iraola said.

The supercomputer’s season projections extend beyond the top three. Opta’s predicted top 10 by points lists Arsenal on 80.02, Man City 70.27, Liverpool 69.25, Chelsea 60.20, Aston Villa 59.22, Bournemouth 58.87, Newcastle 58.45, Crystal Palace 57.27, Man Utd 56.76 and Spurs 56.20.

Manchester United began the campaign with low expectations from the model, which originally forecast a 12th-place finish, yet they have since won three in a row after heavy recruitment. Opta still expects United to finish ninth, and their manager cautioned that fortunes can change quickly: “Three weeks ago, things looked very different, and it can change again just as quickly.”

Eberechi Eze produced the decisive moment that extended Arsenal’s lead at the top of the Premier League to four points. His 39th-minute finish, his first for Arsenal in the competition, arrived from a set-piece that opponents will use to tease the club as “Set-Piece FC.” Arsenal supporters, unconcerned by the label, celebrated a single goal and three points that matter more than style.

The goal arrived as Declan Rice curled a free-kick toward Gabriel at the far post. Yeremy Pino had conceded the set-piece after a naïve moment on the right. Adam Wharton was nominally charged with tracking Eze, who began ten yards out and then slipped into the space in front of the penalty spot. Under the watchful eye of the Three Lions head coach Thomas Tuchel, Eze leapt, twisted his body and executed a scissors-like connection that sent the ball beyond Dean Henderson. The finish required athleticism and technique, qualities Arsenal’s recruitment paid for when they signed him for £65 million ($86.6 million) and handed him the No. 10 shirt.

Eze, 27, had previously opened the scoring for Palace in the corresponding fixture last season, and Arsenal’s move to buy him followed evidence of the damage he could do. He had represented Palace 169 times, scored 40 goals, helped them win the FA Cup, and aided their qualification for Europe. Palace earned a reported £40 million profit on him over five years.

The afternoon contained nervy moments. Viktor Gyökeres almost sought a late goal in injury time rather than run down the clock by the corner flag, prompting anxious reactions inside the Emirates. Around 3,000 Palace supporters applauded Eze when his name appeared in the lineups, a reminder of the “love” he will have for the people at Palace “forever.” Arsenal fans, however, were primarily counting points — three more toward a title they have not won in 21 years.

Eberechi Eze’s first-half volley proved decisive as Arsenal closed out a 1–0 victory over Crystal Palace at the Emirates. The goal, from a Declan Rice free kick in the 39th minute, was the only breakthrough of a tight contest and preserved Arsenal’s defensive run.

The opener arrived when Rice’s lofted free kick dropped 15 yards out. Eze reacted first, meeting the loose ball on the volley and converting the chance, described in the report as the first Premier League goal of his Arsenal tenure against his former club. “There is something in your tummy,” Arteta said of the feeling a player has up against his former club. Eze’s strike gave the hosts room to breathe and allowed their attack to flow more freely in the second half.

Defensively Arsenal were compact. David Raya was not unduly tested and, for the sixth half of Premier League football in succession, was not forced into a single save. Gabriel nearly extended the lead five minutes after the interval, crashing a header from a set piece against the crossbar amid penalty-box scramble.

Arsenal’s backline held firm in the closing stages as Dean Henderson and Crystal Palace probed without creating a clear chance. The clean sheet was Arsenal’s 10th of the season.

Player ratings (out of 10):
GK: David Raya — 8.2
RB: Jurriën Timber — 7.4
CB: William Saliba — 6.7
CB: Gabriel — 7.7
LB: Riccardo Calafiori — 7.1
CM: Eberechi Eze — 7.9
CM: Martín Zubimendi — 7.4
CM: Declan Rice — 7.7
RW: Bukayo Saka — 7.1
ST: Viktor Gyökeres — 6.2
LW: Leandro Trossard — 7.1

Substitutes: Cristhian Mosquera (46’ for Saliba) 6.7; Gabriel Martinelli (66’ for Saka) 5.8; Piero Hincapié (82’ for Calafiori) N/A; Mikel Merino (82’ for Rice) N/A; Myles Lewis-Skelly (87’ for Eze) N/A. Subs not used: Kepa Arrizabalaga, Ben White, Christian Nørgaard, Ethan Nwaneri.

Crystal Palace starting XI: Dean Henderson; Chris Richards, Maxence Lacroix, Marc Guéhi; Daniel Muñoz, Adam Wharton, Daichi Kamada, Tyrick Mitchell; Ismaïla Sarr, Yeremy Pino; Jean-Philippe Mateta. Subs used: Eddie Nketiah, Will Hughes, Borna Sosa, Jefferson Lerma, Christantus Uche.

Match statistics: Possession 66%–34%; xG 0.11–0.08; Total shots 3–3; Shots on target 2–0; Passing accuracy 88%–73%; Fouls 3–6; Corners 0–2.