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Analytics & Stats

Opta Model Names Liverpool Clear Favourite After Record Premier League Spending

Opta’s model rates Liverpool 50.66% to win after record spending and perfect three-game start today.

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The Premier League summer produced record investment as clubs across the division spent a combined £3.19 billion. That spending has already shaped early expectations for the 2025/26 title race, according to the Opta supercomputer.

Liverpool lead the market for title probability after an unprecedented window. The club set a new record for the most spent by a Premier League side in a single window, outlaying £446 million, twice breaking their own club record. Deadline-day capture Alexander Isak arrived for a Premier League-high fee of £125 million, while Florian Wirtz, Hugo Ekitiké, Jeremie Frimpong and Milos Kerkez were among the other arrivals as Arne Slot strengthens his squad. Liverpool are the only team to have won their opening three matches and recorded a recent victory over last season’s runners-up Arsenal. Opta gives them a 50.66% chance of retaining the title.

Arsenal registered the highest net spend after a busy window. The Gunners spent £225 million and signed Viktor Gyökeres, Martín Zubimendi, Eberechi Eze and Piero Hincapié. Having finished ten points behind Liverpool last season and in second place for the last three terms, Mikel Arteta’s side are expected to push again but the model assigns them a 23.51% probability of success.

Chelsea arrive in the conversation after their FIFA Club World Cup triumph and a productive transfer window. The Blues earned seven points from their opening three league matches, spent £285 million on recruits and finished with a positive net spend following £288 million of sales. João Pedro, Jamie Gittens and Alejandro Garnacho are among the new signings. Opta’s model gives Chelsea a 9.71% chance of becoming English champions.

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Manchester City’s title chances have been dented by successive defeats to Tottenham Hotspur and Brighton & Hove Albion. Those results leave City six points behind Liverpool and their title probability sits at 6.42%.

Twelve clubs are rated below one percent for the title, including Tottenham and Manchester United. Crystal Palace are given a 3.3% chance, the Eagles unbeaten with five points from their opening matches. Newcastle United have 1.68% after a start without a win, having reinvested heavily with funds from the sale of Isak.

Analytics & Stats

Slot: Why Salah’s 2025/26 Slump May Trace Back to Alexander-Arnold’s Exit

Slot links Alexander-Arnold exit to Salah’s dip in form, urging new connections and goals. this year

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Arne Slot has suggested a clear link between Liverpool’s summer changes and Mohamed Salah’s sharp reduction in attacking output this season. Salah arrives at Saturday’s trip to Brentford without a non-penalty goal in any of his previous seven Premier League appearances, the worst run of his Liverpool career, per Opta.

Opponents have openly targeted the winger, sensing he is less likely to track back and that Liverpool are less dangerous in transition. When asked whether the absence of Trent Alexander-Arnold, who left Liverpool for Real Madrid in June, had affected Salah, Slot offered a cautious acknowledgement. “Maybe his whole Liverpool [career] he played with Trent, so it could [be that],” he said. “But he’s been in promising positions often enough to score goals, maybe with Trent even more. But in general, if you have quite a few changes in the summer you have to find new connections. Mo is no exception to this.”

Every key attacking metric for Salah has declined from 2024–25 to 2025–26: goals (0.77 to 0.25), xG (0.68 to 0.30), shots (3.46 to 1.89), shots on target (1.64 to 0.76), touches in the opposition box (10.5 to 6.2), assists (0.48 to 0.25) and chances created (2.37 to 2.02). Stats provided by Opta. Correct as of Oct. 24, 2025.

Last season Alexander-Arnold delivered 147 line-breaking passes to Salah in the Premier League, a total that outstripped any other pairing in the division. Without that supply, Salah has struggled to forge a consistent rapport with a rotating line of right-backs this term.

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Slot remains confident in Salah’s quality. “The way he trains, and when we do finishing drills, you cannot lose that,” he insisted. “The only thing is we have to keep bringing him into those positions and he has to bring himself into those positions.

Benchings in Europe have been a recent development. After a limp defeat to Galatasaray at the end of September, Liverpool produced a new-look frontline and romped to a 5–1 win over Eintracht Frankfurt with Cody Gakpo and Florian Wirtz flanking an Ekitiké-Alexander Isak double act. Slot said Salah was unhappy at being left out but viewed that reaction positively. “I hope he is not ever going to take it well, because the moment you are going to take it well then you miss the fire,” he argued.

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Analytics & Stats

Arsenal’s defence threatens historic Liverpool and Chelsea records after perfect start

Arsenal have conceded three goals in eight Premier League games, and are chasing defensive records.

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Arsenal have led the Premier League’s meanest defence in each of the last two seasons, yet that superiority has not been enough to secure the title. The club is still searching for a first Premier League crown since the 2003–04 Invincibles campaign, a drought now extending beyond two decades and noted as the longest since their post-1919 promotion era.

After eight games of the 2025–26 season Arsenal sit top of the table. They have won six fixtures and dropped five points from the 24 available so far. What stands out is the goals-against column. Manchester City (17) and Chelsea (16) have marginally outscored Arsenal (15), while Liverpool, Bournemouth and Tottenham Hotspur have netted just once less often. More telling is how rarely Arsenal have been scored against.

The Gunners’ backline has been breached only three times in the league to date, an average of 0.375 goals conceded per game. That figure is lower than two landmark English defensive records. Highlighted by The Times, Liverpool’s fewest-goals-conceded season (16 in 42 games, 1978–79) works out at 0.381 per game, while Chelsea’s Premier League-era record of 15 goals conceded in 38 games in 2004–05 averages 0.395.

Arsenal still face 30 Premier League fixtures this season, so both defensive standards remain under threat over the long run. Mikel Arteta has tended to select a preferred defensive quartet of Jurriën Timber, William Saliba, Gabriel and Riccardo Calafiori, but that combination has not been available in every match. The depth of the defensive unit is evident: replacements such as Myles Lewis-Skelly and Cristhian Mosquera have been able to slot in without a visible drop in defensive performance.

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The early figures position Arsenal as a team capable of challenging historic benchmarks, but maintaining this level across a full season will determine whether those records can be genuinely threatened.

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Analytics & Stats

Slot doubles down on criticism of United’s long-ball approach

Slot criticised United’s long-ball approach; statistics highlighted heavier reliance on long passes.

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Arne Slot confronted Manchester United’s direct approach after a match in which United prevailed by playing a higher volume of long passes. United’s opening goal came after Bruno Fernandes gobbled up a loose ball following a long punt forward. Slot did not disguise his displeasure in his post-match remarks. “It’s always difficult playing against a team that plays a low block and long balls,” Slot sniped after the 2–1 defeat . “It’s even more difficult when you concede a goal in the opening minutes with a man lying on the ground.

“When you play United, with all their talented players, and they’re playing a low block at our home and playing long balls, the last thing you want is to go behind because it gives them even more confidence,” Slot later added, the bitterness dripping off his words.

Slot also pointed to the difference in playing style compared with recent opponents. “The biggest exception for me was, today compared to the other games we’ve played, was the playing style of our opponent,” Slot explained, the smile back on his face after the end of a four-game losing streak.

The statistical contrast was stark. According to FBref, Manchester United attempted 91 long passes compared with 58 by Eintracht Frankfurt; 28 percent of United’s pass attempts were long, versus 15 percent for Frankfurt. United conceded one goal and allowed six shots on target; Frankfurt conceded five and faced 14 shots on target. The report also notes Eintracht Frankfurt were less reliant upon long balls but were thumped 5–1.

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Belgian goalkeeper Lammens became the focal point for United’s direct plan. Of the 47 passes he attempted on Sunday, 45 travelled at least 30 yards. He explained the rationale succinctly. “You have to be realistic,” Lammens reflected.

“They [Liverpool] are going to go man vs. man [off the ball], so coming to Anfield it is quite difficult to build up.

“So, we made the decision that we should get more of a long ball and try to win the second ball, even though we didn’t really have a target striker. We did it quite well, so that’s how we could still push them away.”

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