The Premier League reaches its final round this weekend with one relegation place still undecided. Burnley and Wolves are already confirmed as relegated, leaving a single spot to settle between Tottenham and West Ham.

Tottenham have one match remaining to salvage what the draft describes as an utterly disastrous campaign. Their destiny remains in their own hands going into Sunday’s finale, though form this season offers little comfort. West Ham still hope to overturn their London rivals and avoid the drop.

The Opta supercomputer provides clear projections. It predicts Tottenham will finish on 39.73 points with a 14.09% chance of relegation. West Ham are projected to reach 37.78 points and face an 85.91% probability of relegation. Burnley and Wolves, both already relegated, have projected points of 22.42 and 20.31 respectively, each with a 100% relegation chance.

With Burnley and Wolves long gone, just one relegation spot remains. West Ham are occupying that position and must win on the final day while also relying on Tottenham losing. The Irons sit two points behind Spurs, but Tottenham’s superior goal difference means West Ham know three points will only be enough if Tottenham are beaten. The unlikelihood of West Ham winning and Spurs losing is reflected in Opta’s projections. As per the supercomputer, Nuno Espírito Santo’s side have an 85.91% chance of being relegated when they host Leeds United on the final day of the season.

Opta’s match outcome probabilities show Tottenham versus Everton as: Home Win 50.4%, Draw 22.8%, Away Win 26.8%. For West Ham against Leeds: Home Win 51.5%, Draw 23.8%, Away Win 24.7%.

West Ham are not yet mathematically out of the fight. Tottenham host Everton in search of only their third home win of the Premier League season. On their own patch, Spurs have won twice, drawn six times and lost 10 matches, the joint-worst home record in the division, tied with Burnley.

A chastening 3–1 home defeat to Crystal Palace in March convinced most of the Tottenham Hotspur support that relegation was no longer a laughing matter. West Ham United’s emphatic victory over Wolverhampton Wanderers in early April then pushed Spurs into the bottom three for the first time in a decade, less than 48 hours before Roberto De Zerbi’s managerial bow.

There were few signs of progress on the Italian’s debut at Sunderland, but the team has grown under his guidance since. Eight points from their four most recent outings have put Spurs on the brink of safety and altered the prospect of a trip to Stamford Bridge. The Lilywhites have won just one Premier League game at Stamford Bridge since the competition’s inception, a 3–1 victory in April 2018, with Dele Alli scoring twice.

A victory at Chelsea would be more than symbolic. It would all but confirm Tottenham as a Premier League side for 2026–27, because a win would leave them five points clear of West Ham with a single game remaining. Even a draw would be valuable. A point at Stamford Bridge would move Spurs three points clear of West Ham going into the final day and would require a 13-goal swing for the Hammers to overtake them. That is one reason Opta is convinced that Spurs are safe.

Chelsea arrive as beaten FA Cup finalists and would see faint Champions League hopes fade completely should results elsewhere go against them. Bournemouth kick off against Manchester City 45 minutes earlier, meaning Chelsea’s own fate could be decided before the full-time whistle at Stamford Bridge.

For Tottenham the objective is straightforward: control what they can. A measured, disciplined display that secures a point would be a major step toward survival. Back-to-back defeats for the Hammers have increased Spurs’ chances, but scepticism among supporters remains. This isn’t done just yet.

A predictive model has dramatically raised the pressure on West Ham United after their defeat at St. James’ Park. A contentious VAR decision and a ragged opening 20 minutes on Tyneside left the visitors chasing the game and provided the context for a result that has altered survival projections.

Newcastle produced one of their better home performances in a difficult season, while West Ham offered a return to their early-season inconsistency. The hosts raced into a 2–0 lead through Nick Woltemade and William Osula, leaving the Hammers on the back foot. Taty Castellanos produced a superb finish to give a brief window for recovery, but West Ham never found the level required and fell short.

The model’s table assigns clear probabilities to the bottom of the table. Tottenham are shown with 38 actual points, a predicted points total of 40.55 and a relegation chance of 6.17%. West Ham sit on 36 actual points with a predicted 37.49 and a 93.83% chance of relegation. Burnley (R) and Wolves (R) are listed with 21 and 19 actual points respectively, predicted points of 22.71 and 20.26, and both carry 100% relegation probabilities.

For Tottenham supporters there was relief amid lingering frustration. Fans left the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium feeling they had missed a chance to pull further clear, despite holding on for a point against Leeds. Roberto De Zerbi’s side now require a single point from their remaining fixtures to secure safety.

Nuno Espírito Santo’s team face an uphill battle to avoid the drop. The report notes West Ham’s issues with set-up, sloppiness and lack of intensity out of possession as factors that accelerated their decline on the day. With Chelsea at Stamford Bridge and other demanding fixtures to come, Tottenham’s remaining matches will determine whether the small relegation risk becomes academic.