Chelsea
Chelsea’s Champions League path: eight matches and near-impossible permutations
Chelsea need wins, seven rival results and an Aston Villa Europa League win to reach sixth. 1% faith
Chelsea remain mathematically alive for Champions League qualification, but the route is narrow and unusual. A draw with Liverpool on May 9 provided the Blues with their first Premier League point in more than two months after a six-game losing run that left them with one point from a possible 21.
The only plausible route to Europe’s top table relies on the Premier League being awarded a sixth Champions League place via a European Performance Spot. That extra berth would arrive if Aston Villa ‘double qualify’ by finishing in the top five and winning the Europa League. Unai Emery’s team is favorite against Freiburg on Wednesday. If Villa secure both, the league place would drop to the next English team.
Bournemouth currently occupy sixth with 55 points from 36 matches. Chelsea sit in 10th on 49 points from 36 games, six points adrift but with a superior goal difference. To overtake Bournemouth the Blues must win their remaining fixtures against Tottenham Hotspur and Sunderland and hope Bournemouth lose both of theirs.
Even that would not be enough. Chelsea also require Brentford to lose to Liverpool, and for Aston Villa to slip behind Liverpool into fourth by losing to Manchester City. From a Chelsea perspective Brighton & Hove Albion must fail to beat Manchester United. In total it is seven Premier League results that must go the Blues’ way, plus the Europa League final — eight matches in all.
The table is exceptionally tight: Bournemouth 36 (+4) 55 points; Brighton 37 (+9) 53; Brentford 37 (+3) 52; Sunderland 37 (-7) 51; Chelsea 36 (+6) 49; Newcastle 37 (0) 49; Everton 37 (-2) 49; Fulham 37 (-6) 49.
Supporters have acknowledged the odds. As one Chelsea fan account noted on X this week: “1% chance, 99% faith.” The club that was briefly considered an outside title contender in November now faces a run of results and permutations that make Champions League qualification extremely unlikely.
Chelsea
Palmer’s England setback could strengthen Chelsea’s early-season momentum
Palmer’s England setback may disappoint him, but Chelsea can benefit from his extra rest.
Cole Palmer must wait a little longer for another chance to convince Thomas Tuchel on the England stage, but the delay may suit Chelsea just fine.
Palmer has not featured for England since March 2026 and missed this summer’s World Cup. A strong start to the 2026/27 season had earned him a recall, and Tuchel accepted that he deserved the opportunity to show he belongs in the squad full-time. That opportunity now looks set to slip away for the time being.
Inside Chelsea, there will be sympathy for the player, but also a clear sense that his absence from international duty could help club matters. The mood around the team is not especially bright after two defeats and a draw, yet Palmer has been one of the clearest positives under Xabi Alonso.
His return to form has been reflected in the numbers. Four goals and two assists in seven games represent an encouraging opening stretch, and Palmer himself has spoken about enjoying his football again in Alonso’s fluid forward line. Tactics have helped, but so has the value of a proper summer break.
Last season was hindered by the lingering effects of a groin injury, and his output dropped to 11 goals and three assists in all competitions. Given that context, being left out of England’s World Cup squad was painful but not unexpected. It also created the long recovery period he needed.
For the first time in months, Palmer was able to step away from the demands of match football and focus purely on recovery between May and August. That pause has clearly paid off in the opening weeks of the campaign.
Chelsea supporters wanted to see him back on the international stage, but few would oppose another three-week break if it produces the same level of sharpness. Tuchel, though, has made his stance clear. He values the same core of players and prioritises what he sees from them in an England shirt.
Since Tuchel arrived in January 2025, Palmer has played only 158 minutes for England across three appearances. Injuries and poor form have limited his chances, while others have moved ahead by making the most of their own opportunities.
Palmer has already worked his way back into Tuchel’s thinking once this month, and could do so again by maintaining his goals and assists for Chelsea. For now, however, the bar appears higher after another international window away from England.
Chelsea
Chelsea’s defensive start leaves Alonso in unwanted company
Chelsea’s early defensive record under Xabi Alonso has joined an unwanted Premier League list.
Chelsea’s early-season defensive troubles have placed Xabi Alonso in notable but unwelcome territory after the Brentford defeat.
The Chelsea manager has become only the sixth boss in Premier League history to see his team concede at least twice in each of their first five matches. Across those five league games, Chelsea have already shipped 12 goals, the worst defensive return in the division going into Saturday’s fixtures.
That puts Alonso alongside a short list of managers whose sides struggled badly from the outset. The figures show just how steep the problem has been:
Terry Connor conceded 16 goals, Sammy Lee and Scott Parker both conceded 13, Alonso and Slaviša Jokanović each conceded 12, and Mick McCarthy conceded 10.
There are, however, clear reasons why Chelsea have been so exposed. Alonso has been operating without Moisés Caicedo and Marco Palestra through injury, while captain Reece James was also unavailable against Brentford. Those absences have weakened the structure, although they cannot fully explain everything on their own.
One recurring issue has been defending set pieces. Jaidon Anthony’s opener on Friday marked the sixth time Chelsea have conceded from a dead-ball situation this season, which is already the highest such total in the league. Austin MacPhee was brought in during the summer as set-piece coach, but recent episodes suggest the work is still far from settled.
Chelsea’s switch to a back three has also not provided the expected protection. Rather than tightening things up, it has looked awkward and has left space for opponents to exploit.
The wider picture matters too. Since the start of 2026, no Premier League team has conceded more than Chelsea’s 43 goals. Alonso’s 12 in five games sit on top of a problem that predates him, with Liam Rosenior and Calum McFarlane having already overseen 31 goals conceded in 19 matches before his arrival.
Maxence Lacroix has arrived from Crystal Palace to strengthen the defence, but there is still a sense that Chelsea need more experience at the back to steady the unit.
Chelsea
Alonso identifies Chelsea’s problems after Brentford defeat
Alonso warned Chelsea need patience after a Brentford loss exposed their consistency, mentality and control.
Xabi Alonso asked for patience after one of the most difficult nights of his early Chelsea reign, but his post-match assessment made clear how many issues he believes remain unresolved.
Speaking after the loss at the Gtech Community Stadium, Alonso admitted that Chelsea have lost consistency and have yet to produce a full 90 minutes that he can trust. He said the side has struggled to sustain performance either within matches or from one weekend to the next, and that against Brentford they never established a spell in control.
The game itself was tight for an hour, with both teams pressing forward quickly after turnovers and then giving the ball back. Once Brentford scored, Chelsea collapsed badly. Alonso pointed first to mentality, saying: “We have dropped our consistency,” and adding that there was a lack of the “competitive mentality needed in the second half” from his side.
He also accepted that set-piece defending remains a problem, though he stressed it is only one part of a wider picture. Since the start of last season, Chelsea have conceded 22 set-piece goals, more than any other Premier League team.
Alonso also highlighted duels and ball progression as areas that need work. On the day, Chelsea actually came out well in the physical contests, winning 59% of ground duels and 53% in the air, but that did not translate into control. With the ball, Chelsea were slow and flat, and their 116 passes between Henderson and Barco never led into Brentford’s box.
The lack of threat became even more obvious after Chelsea fell behind in the 61st minute. They finished with 80% possession across the final half-hour, yet did not force a save from Caoimhin Kelleher.
Alonso said the team must learn how to hold shape when under pressure, and Chelsea’s failure in rest defense was underlined by Brentford’s second goal. Alonso said it was an area he had already worked on with the squad before the visit to Hounslow.
