Premier League
How Tottenham’s Remaining Fixtures Stack Up Against Survival Rivals
A March defeat left Tottenham precarious; Opta now gives them a 16.1% relegation chance. After March.
Let Thursday, March 5, 2026, stand out as the night Spurs’ supporters allowed themselves to believe again. The lift lasted only minutes. A Micky van de Ven tug on Ismaïla Sarr’s shirt led to a quick turnaround; within 13 minutes, Solanke’s smart tap-in left Tottenham a man down and 3–1 behind. Supporters headed for the exits or a sombre half-time beer.
The table is tight: Leeds (31 points), Tottenham (29 points), Nottingham Forest (28 points), West Ham (28 points). A home defeat to Sunderland left Leeds two points clear of Tottenham and three ahead of West Ham. Yet Leeds have rarely looked like relegation candidates since November, when a switch to a back three improved their form.
On paper Leeds have the easiest run-in, their remaining opponents averaging a league position of 13.2. Forest (9.8) and West Ham (9.1) face tougher sequences but both are showing more cohesion and belief than Spurs. Forest have difficult trips to Sunderland, Chelsea and Manchester United, but they also host Aston Villa, Burnley, Newcastle and Bournemouth. West Ham will rely on home support down the stretch and have fixtures including Manchester City and Wolves.
Tottenham have managed just four points from 11 games in 2026 and “don’t look like winning a game until they face Lincoln City in August,” according to the current assessment in the draft. They do, however, host vital six-pointers against Nottingham Forest and Leeds. All of their away trips look daunting, not least the trip to Anfield, which comes after the first leg of their Champions League round of 16 tie against Atlético Madrid.
After the club parted ways with Thomas Frank last month, Opta’s supercomputer had Spurs’ relegation probability at less than 4%. With Igor Tudor now overseeing a third straight defeat, Opta has increased that chance to 16.1%. West Ham’s survival odds are just under 50% and Forest sit on 26.88%. Wolves and Burnley are described as all but condemned.
Tottenham still have home dates with Chelsea at Stamford Bridge late in the season and a final day meeting with Everton at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium could yet be decisive.
Arsenal
How City and Arsenal’s Remaining League Schedules Stack Up as Title Race Tightens
City applied pressure after Brentford; Arsenal must win all three remaining league games, to clinch.
Manchester City closed some of the gap on Premier League leaders Arsenal with victory over Brentford on Saturday evening, re-applying pressure as the run-in approaches. Arsenal control their own fate: they will win a first title in over two decades as long as they taste victory in each of their last three league fixtures. City must hope for slip-ups from the Gunners while navigating their own commitments.
Arsenal face an immediate test on Sunday as the in-form Gunners travel to relegation-threatened West Ham United for their 36th match of the season. That trip represents the biggest banana skin remaining on Arsenal’s schedule, with their motivated hosts scrapping for survival and capable of making life awkward for Mikel Arteta’s side. Still, the league leaders will be strong favorites to clinch three points.
Arsenal’s penultimate Premier League fixture reads Burnley at the Emirates Stadium on May 18. Burnley are already relegated, have lost their previous five in all competitions and have managed just one Premier League win since the start of November. Arsenal finish the season with a London trip to Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park on May 24. Palace could rest personnel ahead of their Conference League final against Rayo Vallecano three days later.
Man City’s schedule includes a rearranged fixture with Crystal Palace this coming Wednesday. Crystal Palace have occasionally proven a thorn in City’s side, most notably triumphing over Pep Guardiola’s men in last year’s FA Cup final. City also have this term’s FA Cup final against Chelsea next Saturday. Three days after the Wembley showdown, they return to Premier League action away at Bournemouth on May 19. Other fixtures for City include Crystal Palace (H) on May 13 and Aston Villa (H) on May 24.
With Arsenal needing three straight wins to secure the title and City still pressing, the closing weeks of the season will be decisive for both clubs.
Analytics & Stats
Opta Simulations Leave Arsenal Favoured as City Cut Lead to Two Points
Opta’s simulations keep Arsenal favourites despite City’s late wins and a tightening title race ’26.
Opta’s supercomputer still ranks Arsenal ahead in the title race despite Manchester City’s late reply at Brentford and a tightening gap. City reduced Arsenal’s lead to two points with both clubs having three matches remaining, but the model continues to favour the Gunners in most scenarios.
Jérémy Doku had been on target twice against Everton on Monday night, yet those goals could not stop City dropping points in a 3–3 draw. Erling Haaland, who scored against Brentford, insisted his team were “still in it” after the Everton setback. Saturday’s reaction at Brentford and the potential importance of goal difference in this finish were both underlined by City’s late flurry.
Opta’s projections list Arsenal on 76 actual points with a predicted 82.37 points and a 79.7% chance of winning the title. Manchester City sit on 74 actual points with a predicted 79.55 points and a 20.3% title probability. Arsenal were given an 85% chance of winning the league in the immediate aftermath of City’s stumble on Merseyside earlier this week.
The computer’s view takes in upcoming schedules. City are shown with fixtures against Crystal Palace and Aston Villa either side of a trip to Bournemouth, a sequence the model judges tricky because Bournemouth remain in the chase for Champions League qualification.
Elsewhere, Manchester United’s place in the Champions League was effectively sealed as they crawled to a goalless draw with Sunderland in their first game after securing qualification. Opta projects United to reach 68.01 points with a 100% chance of qualifying for Europe’s top competition. Liverpool drew 1–1 with Chelsea and still need another win to guarantee a top-five finish. “We wanted to qualify for it weeks ago,” Slot sighed. “It isn’t the season we’re having, though. Sometimes it is really hard to accept these results because we are used to different ones.”
Bournemouth’s manager reflected on survival and ambition after a 1–0 win over Fulham. “Today was a very important step forward,” Bournemouth’s Andoni Iraola beamed after his side battled to a 1–0 win over Fulham on Saturday, “but we still have to get more points.” Brighton’s captain also noted the season’s extremes. “It’s a mental season,” club captain Lewis Dunk gushed, “one minute we’re looking at relegation and now we’re talking about Europe, it’s great fun football, isn’t it?”
On the bottom end, Tottenham conclude the matchday with a crunch clash against Leeds on Monday and their chances of survival have improved, while West Ham do not face Arsenal until Sunday.
Chelsea
Anfield Draw: Winners and Losers From Liverpool v Chelsea
Gravenberch’s early goal and Enzo Fernandez’s free kick ensured a draw that exposed winners. on show
A draw between Liverpool and Chelsea at Anfield left both sides assessing where they stand in the Champions League race. Ryan Gravenberch’s sixth-minute stunner put Liverpool ahead early, but Chelsea responded through Enzo Fernández’s drifting free kick that evaded everybody and beat Giorgi Mamardashvili.
Liverpool were missing key personnel: Mohamed Salah, Florian Wirtz and Hugo Ekitiké were unavailable. In their absence Rio Ngumoha emerged as the clear creative focal point. He had 19 touches in the first half, completed three of four dribbles and repeatedly troubled Malo Gusto. Ngumoha’s decision to come inside and his weighted pass into space allowed Gravenberch to curl the early strike into the top corner. His withdrawal in the 66th minute prompted boos from the crowd, reflecting confusion at the substitution.
Dominik Szoboszlai’s thunderous free-kick struck the wall before play worked out to Ngumoha, whose pass created Gravenberch’s opportunity. Despite the positive moments, Liverpool were warned by the result. The draw is not a disaster, but the Reds could drop to fifth and be only three points clear of sixth if Aston Villa and Bournemouth secure positive results.
For Chelsea a draw was a useful outcome after six successive Premier League defeats prior to the trip to Merseyside. Enzo Fernández, whose recent absence included an internal two-game suspension, has returned in strong form. Operating higher and linking with Cole Palmer, Fernández exploited spaces left by Ibrahima Konaté and Curtis Jones’s lack of communication and helped shift momentum during periods of the first half.
Marc Cucurella, deployed on the left wing by stand-in manager Calum McFarlane, provided energy and combinations with Fernández and João Pedro. He was almost decisive early in the second half but a VAR offside call ruled out the move when Moisés Caicedo played him through.
Jeremie Frimpong continues to struggle for rhythm after injuries, attempting just two dribbles and completing none, with one cross, one defensive contribution and one tackle recorded by FotMob. Cody Gakpo offered little up front, with 77 minutes, 12 touches and eight passes and no shot on Filip Jörgensen’s goal. Levi Colwill, making his first Premier League start of the season after a torn ACL, enjoyed an easier afternoon than many expected.
