Arsenal
Opta Model: Arsenal Still Favoured After Gameweek 11 Stumble
Opta predicts Arsenal will still lead 2025-26 despite Gameweek 11 slip; Man City and Liverpool chase.
Arsenal and Liverpool both dropped points in Gameweek 11, but Opta’s projection model continues to favour Mikel Arteta’s side for the 2025–26 Premier League title. Arsenal drew 2–2 and Manchester City thrashed Liverpool 3–0 at the Etihad, bringing City within four points of the leaders.
Opta’s supercomputer places Arsenal top with 26 current points and an expected total of 80.21 points, giving them a 65.49% chance of winning the title. Man City sit on 22 points and are projected to finish on 72.73 points with a 19.43% title probability. Liverpool, on 18 points after the Etihad defeat, are forecast to end the season on 69.20 points with an 8.89% chance.
Despite the draw against Sunderland, the model still sees Arsenal as the most likely champions. Opta notes Arsenal’s projected 80 points would be four fewer than the total Liverpool required to win last season. The projection also indicates that a title won with around 80 points would rank as the fourth-lowest champions total in league history.
Below the top three, Opta projects a tight fight for Champions League qualification. Chelsea are projected to finish fourth on 63.20 expected points with a 39.23% Champions League probability. Aston Villa and Crystal Palace are forecast to battle for the fifth spot, with Villa on 60.00 expected points (23.78%) and Palace on 59.49 (22.06%).
Bournemouth are still in the hunt and are projected to finish on 57.15 points (13.35%), while Manchester United are forecast at 56.34 points with an 11.55% chance of making a return to Europe’s biggest stage. Brighton (55.86 expected points, 10.79%) and Tottenham Hotspur (55.01 expected points, 9.88%) round out Opta’s projected top 10.
Opta’s forecast assumes the top five in the English top-flight are likely to qualify for UEFA’s premier club competition. Injuries and red cards have affected Chelsea’s 2025–26 campaign after their FIFA Club World Cup triumph, according to the projection context.
Arsenal
Arteta to Manage Saka’s Minutes as Arsenal Prepare for Champions League Second Leg
Arteta will manage Saka’s minutes ahead of Tuesday’s second leg as Arsenal carry a 1–1 tie. on Tues.
Mikel Arteta warned he will limit Bukayo Saka’s load after the winger was withdrawn as a precaution at half-time of Saturday’s win over Fulham. Saka had started but was taken off after 45 minutes in the league victory, having recently returned from an injury absence.
“We had to,” the Arsenal boss admitted. “He played 30-odd minutes in Madrid, now he’s played 45 minutes. We need to ramp up his load but we need to be careful because we need him on that pitch.” The remarks offered reassurance to supporters ahead of Tuesday’s Champions League second leg against Atlético Madrid, with the tie level at 1–1.
Saka’s return has coincided with a goal drought among Arsenal’s wide players. After his match-winning first-half contribution on Saturday he was replaced by Noni Madueke. The summer recruit enjoyed a bright start while filling in but has struggled for end product after extended minutes. Noni Madueke has not registered a goal or an assist against top-flight opposition since heading in the opener of a 1–1 draw with Brentford on Feb. 12, 2026.
Leandro Trossard may have created Gyökeres’s third goal against Fulham, but he is still waiting for his first strike of 2026; his last goal against top-flight opposition came on Dec. 30, 2025 versus Aston Villa. Gabriel Martinelli has gone more than three months without finding the net, his most recent goal against top-flight opposition coming on Jan. 28, 2026 versus Kairat.
During those scoring droughts for Arsenal’s wide players, Saka missed 10 matches through injury, which made his return particularly welcome. “We know what he’s capable of,” Arteta said. “He’s come back in the most important period of the season and now he’s fresh, his mind is fresh, his hunger is at the highest possible height and I think he needed a performance like that to impact the team, so that’s a big platform for Tuesday.”
Saka’s 22-minute cameo in the first leg in Madrid was described as a struggle to find the speed of the contest, and there is hope he will fare better with a start at the Emirates. Availability questions remain elsewhere: Martin Ødegaard missed Saturday’s league outing after reportedly suffering from knee discomfort during the first leg against Atlético.
Analytics & Stats
Opta Forecast: Arsenal Hold Edge as Title Race, Europe and Survival Remain Tight
Opta model favours Arsenal after 3-0 win; title race, Champions League and relegation remain tight.
Arsenal sit in control of the Premier League title race after a 3–0 win over Fulham, but the margins are slim. The Opta supercomputer projects Arsenal to finish on 82.28 expected points from their current 76, giving them a 79.70% chance of being champions. Manchester City, on 70 points, are forecast at 79.30 expected points with a 20.30% title probability.
That six-point advantage is meaningful, yet fragile. On paper, Arsenal are in an imposing position, but City face two fixtures that matter: away at Everton on Monday and then Brentford on Saturday. If City are perfect in those games they can erase the gap, and by the time Arsenal next play in the Premier League the two clubs would be level on games played.
The Opta model also lays out the race for Champions League football. Manchester United, on 61 points and an expected 67.03, are shown with a 100.00% chance of qualifying and can confirm their place with victory over Liverpool on Sunday. Aston Villa and Liverpool are close: Villa sit on 58 points with 64.15 expected and a 99.01% chance, while Liverpool also have 58 points with 64.00 expected and a 98.63% chance. Brighton are projected to finish with 55.17 expected points from 50 now and sit on a 0.69% chance of Champions League qualification. Bournemouth (49, 54.45, 0.51%), Brentford (51, 54.30, 0.51%) and Chelsea (48, 53.79, 0.60%) are all shown outside the automatic certainty but still within reach of European action.
At the bottom, the simulation makes relegation clear for two clubs. Burnley (20 points, 22.74 expected) and Wolverhampton Wanderers (18 points, 21.02 expected) have 100.00% relegation chances and will be replaced in the Championship by Coventry City and Ipswich Town. The final slot remains undecided. Nottingham Forest (39, 44.12, 0.97%) look relatively safe, while West Ham (36, 39.25, 48.78%) and Tottenham (34, 38.70, 50.22%) are in the precarious positions. Tottenham are currently backed for the drop, although victory over Aston Villa in Sunday’s late game would see Roberto De Zerbi’s side climb out of the relegation zone with four games left to play.
Arsenal
Saka’s Return Spurs Arsenal to a 3-0 Victory Over Fulham
Saka returned and influenced Arsenal’s 3-0 win over Fulham; Gyökeres with a first-half brace. Strong.
Bukayo Saka returned to the starting line-up and played a decisive role as Arsenal recorded a 3-0 home win over Fulham. The result allowed the Gunners to protect energy ahead of Tuesday’s Champions League semifinal second leg against Atlético Madrid while improving their goal difference as a domestic margin.
The performance was Saka’s most influential since a Champions League match with Monaco in December 2024. After that game Arteta challenged his winger to “go to the next step” which came with the target of scoring “30 or 40” goals in a season. Injuries, linked in the piece to Arteta’s demands on his constant involvement, have limited Saka’s minutes. The Fulham match was his first start in any competition since the March international break and lasted 45 minutes.
Arteta had said pregame: “Penetration is one of the words we use the most,” Arteta fretted pregame, “players taking initiative and making things happen … It’s extremely difficult against a team that is so organized, so we need to find other ways.” One chosen route was to involve Saka early, and he produced the spark Arsenal needed.
Viktor Gyökeres opened the scoring after Saka created the opening opportunity, and the Swedish striker later provided the pass for Saka’s goal. Gyökeres’s first-half brace and Saka’s contribution left the home crowd satisfied. Saka did not emerge for the second half, the only noticeable concern from an otherwise controlled afternoon.
Player ratings (selected):
GK: David Raya 7.7
RB: Ben White 7.1
CB: William Saliba 7.0
CB: Gabriel 7.3
LB: Riccardo Calafiori 7.5
CM: Declan Rice 7.4
AM: Eberechi Eze 6.5
RW: Bukayo Saka 8.7
ST: Viktor Gyökeres 9.1
LW: Leandro Trossard 8.6
Subs of note: Noni Madueke (46’ for Saka) 6.3; Martín Zubimendi (64’ for Rice) 6.9; Gabriel Jesus (64’ for Gyökeres) 6.1.
Key match statistics: possession 54% to 46%; expected goals 2.97 to 0.43; total shots 18 to 10; shots on target 9 to 1; big chances 7 to 1; passing accuracy 89% to 83%; fouls 7 to 12.
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