Manchester City were left to rue another slip as they came away with a point from a 3-3 draw with Everton. “We’re still in it,” Haaland offered to his teammates while processing the chaotic 90 minutes. City sit five points behind the Gunners having played one game fewer, but Pep Guardiola was blunt: “It’s not in our hands.”

Opta’s supercomputer gives Arsenal the clear advantage. The model lists Arsenal on 76 points with an expected 82.30 and title chances of 85.24%. Manchester City are on 71 points with an expected 78.75 and title chances of 14.76%. Arsenal have been favourites for months and were given the edge even after City briefly reclaimed top spot with a win over Burnley in April.

City must now hope Arsenal drop points in at least one of their remaining fixtures against West Ham United, Burnley and Crystal Palace, three sides the Gunners have already beaten in the league this season. Arsenal’s 3-0 win over Fulham on Saturday suggested a straightforward run-in, though that Fulham side had been struck by a roster-wide virus. The north London players carry the weight of three years of second-place finishes as they chase a 22-year wait for top-flight glory.

The calendar also presents challenges for City: four games in 11 days with the FA Cup final included. Guardiola reminded reporters: “We have games left,” and added, “We will see what happens.” He had ceded the title earlier in the season only for his side to fight back.

Elsewhere Opta predicts Manchester United (64 points, expected 68.61) have secured Champions League football, with Liverpool and Aston Villa also highly likely to qualify. Villa, despite recent defeats including a loss to Tottenham that was their fifth in eight league games, remain buoyed by a previous run of 12 wins from 13. “In 35 games, things are very good,” Unai Emery insisted, “and we have the advantage to still be in the top five, but we must continue to be demanding.”

The model also maps a tight battle for sixth and a perilous relegation picture that places Burnley and Wolves as certain to go down and West Ham with a large danger percentage after a miserable weekend.

Manchester City left Hill Dickinson Stadium with a 3-3 draw against Everton after a sequence of second-half errors and late heroics that intensify the Premier League title race. Pep Guardiola’s side led at half-time but unravelled after the hour mark, then recovered to claim a point that keeps them within five of the league leaders with a game in hand.

The turning point came in the 68th minute when Marc Guéhi played a weak backpass from inside the 18-yard box to goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma. Thierno Barry reacted quickest to score the equaliser. Everton carried that momentum, adding a second and third goal within 12 minutes and prompting frustrated City supporters to begin leaving the stadium. Two minutes after Everton’s breakthrough, Erling Haaland produced a brief moment of brilliance to pull City back into contention, and Jérémy Doku fired into the upper right-hand side of the net in stoppage time to level the score.

City dominated possession and total shots in the opening period but held only a 1-0 lead at the break. Gianluigi Donnarumma made an “absolutely unbelievable save” in the 31st minute to deny Everton, a moment that proved crucial. The match underlined how heavily City have relied on Jérémy Doku late in games; Doku had been decisive again after providing goal contributions in the FA Cup semi-final against Southampton, where his goal and assist helped secure a 2-1 win.

The result leaves Arsenal five points clear, following their 3-0 win over Fulham, and hands City a fragile lifeline. With Arsenal steadfast in the title race, City will hope other results can shift the balance as the season progresses.

Player ratings

GK: Gianluigi Donnarumma – 6.9: Absolutely unbelievable save in the 31st minute, after Guéhi got torched on the left side. His backline did him no favors in the second half.

RB: Matheus Nunes – 6.7

CB: Abdukodir Khusanov – 6.9

CB: Marc Guéhi – 6.7

LB: Nico O’Reilly – 6.0

DM: Nico González – 6.4

DM: Bernardo Silva – 6.2

RW: Antoine Semenyo – 7.2

AM: Rayan Cherki – 8.0

LW: Jérémy Doku – 9.4

ST: Erling Haaland – 7.5

Subs: Phil Foden (74’ for Semenyo) – 6.2; Mateo Kovačić (75’ for González) – 7.4; Omar Marmoush (87’ for Silva) – N/A

Match statistics

Possession: Man City 75% – Everton 25% | Expected Goals (xG): Man City 1.45 – Everton 2.77 | Total Shots: 21 – 14 | Shots on Target: 4 – 6 | Big Chances: 1 – 3 | Passing Accuracy: 90% – 69% | Fouls Committed: 5 – 15

Chelsea conceded at Stamford Bridge and fell to a 3–1 defeat by Nottingham Forest on Monday, a result that underlined a season slipping out of their control. The Blues ended a nine-hour wait for a Premier League goal with João Pedro’s acrobatic strike in stoppage time, but that consolation did little to alter the match’s narrative.

Nottingham Forest struck twice in quick succession. Igor Jesus converted from the spot after a VAR-recommended review following Malo Gusto’s shirt pull on Taiwo Awoniyi, and Awoniyi added a second at the start of the second half following a dangerous delivery from Dilane Bakwa and good work from Morgan Gibbs-White. Cole Palmer had a first-half penalty saved by Matz Sels, and João Pedro briefly had a goal ruled out for offside before scoring his late overhead kick.

The defeat drops Chelsea to ninth and extends a run of six straight defeats for the first time since 1993. Nottingham Forest are described in the report as practically safe. The assessment for the Blues was blunt: poor defending, ill-discipline and costly moments under VAR scrutiny.

Individual ratings reflected a mixed performance. Enzo Fernández (7.7) and João Pedro (7.7) were the highest-rated performers, while Marc Cucurella received 7.5. Malo Gusto’s shirt pull and overall defending featured in the match’s decisive moments; the full list of ratings in the report ranged from Robert Sánchez (5.8) to Cucurella and included several midrange scores across the back line and midfield.

Substitutions included Liam Delap (45’) and Levi Colwill (46’), with Filip Jörgensen coming on at 66’. Several players were unused on the bench, including Jorrel Hato, Josh Acheampong, Wesley Fofana, Dário Essugo and Reece James. The report concluded with statistics that showed Chelsea dominating possession (68%) and attempts (21 shots) but falling short on the day; expected goals were 1.93 for Chelsea and 2.07 for Forest.

With domestic cup progress now a vital objective, the result leaves Chelsea facing a critical period in which form must improve quickly.