Pep Guardiola cut a downcast figure after watching his Manchester City side give up a position of real ascendancy against Everton on Monday night, but he took some encouragement from his side’s capacity to at least scramble a point after trailing 3–1 with less than 10 minutes left to play.

The table shows Arsenal with 35 games played, a +41 goal difference and 76 points. Manchester City have played 34, sit on +37 and have 71 points. That gap leaves a narrow path for Arsenal to be crowned before the traditional final-day showdown.

There is a sequence in which Arsenal would need only one more win. Should City lose to Brentford on Saturday and Arsenal beat West Ham United the following day, Arsenal would be confirmed as champions if City fail to beat Crystal Palace on Wednesday, May 13. That outcome depends on Arsenal defeating West Ham at the London Stadium.

As Thierry Henry fretted on Sky Sports, “Nothing is done.”

“I am going to stay in my lane, I am not going to celebrate too early,” he warned. “I am worried for the West Ham game.”

Most likely the race will stretch to the final day, Sunday, May 24. City’s vulnerability was exposed in the Everton match, but it would be a major surprise if they dropped many more points.

Both title contenders could face opponents with other priorities on that decisive Sunday. Arsenal travel to Crystal Palace, who may be preparing for a Conference League final three days later and hold a 3–1 lead from a semifinal first leg over Shakhtar Donetsk ahead of this week’s home tie.

Aston Villa trail Nottingham Forest by one goal from their Europa League semifinal first leg. If Villa reach the final they would travel to Man City four days on from an appearance in the Europa League final. Villa’s recent performance against Tottenham Hotspur was described as disastrous in the draft and could indicate vulnerability.

Arsenal’s remaining fixtures referenced in the draft include West Ham (A) on May 10, Burnley (H) on May 18 and Bournemouth (A) on May 19. City’s key fixtures are Brentford (H) on May 9 and Crystal Palace (H) on May 13.

Manchester City were left to rue another slip as they came away with a point from a 3-3 draw with Everton. “We’re still in it,” Haaland offered to his teammates while processing the chaotic 90 minutes. City sit five points behind the Gunners having played one game fewer, but Pep Guardiola was blunt: “It’s not in our hands.”

Opta’s supercomputer gives Arsenal the clear advantage. The model lists Arsenal on 76 points with an expected 82.30 and title chances of 85.24%. Manchester City are on 71 points with an expected 78.75 and title chances of 14.76%. Arsenal have been favourites for months and were given the edge even after City briefly reclaimed top spot with a win over Burnley in April.

City must now hope Arsenal drop points in at least one of their remaining fixtures against West Ham United, Burnley and Crystal Palace, three sides the Gunners have already beaten in the league this season. Arsenal’s 3-0 win over Fulham on Saturday suggested a straightforward run-in, though that Fulham side had been struck by a roster-wide virus. The north London players carry the weight of three years of second-place finishes as they chase a 22-year wait for top-flight glory.

The calendar also presents challenges for City: four games in 11 days with the FA Cup final included. Guardiola reminded reporters: “We have games left,” and added, “We will see what happens.” He had ceded the title earlier in the season only for his side to fight back.

Elsewhere Opta predicts Manchester United (64 points, expected 68.61) have secured Champions League football, with Liverpool and Aston Villa also highly likely to qualify. Villa, despite recent defeats including a loss to Tottenham that was their fifth in eight league games, remain buoyed by a previous run of 12 wins from 13. “In 35 games, things are very good,” Unai Emery insisted, “and we have the advantage to still be in the top five, but we must continue to be demanding.”

The model also maps a tight battle for sixth and a perilous relegation picture that places Burnley and Wolves as certain to go down and West Ham with a large danger percentage after a miserable weekend.

Mikel Arteta warned he will limit Bukayo Saka’s load after the winger was withdrawn as a precaution at half-time of Saturday’s win over Fulham. Saka had started but was taken off after 45 minutes in the league victory, having recently returned from an injury absence.

“We had to,” the Arsenal boss admitted. “He played 30-odd minutes in Madrid, now he’s played 45 minutes. We need to ramp up his load but we need to be careful because we need him on that pitch.” The remarks offered reassurance to supporters ahead of Tuesday’s Champions League second leg against Atlético Madrid, with the tie level at 1–1.

Saka’s return has coincided with a goal drought among Arsenal’s wide players. After his match-winning first-half contribution on Saturday he was replaced by Noni Madueke. The summer recruit enjoyed a bright start while filling in but has struggled for end product after extended minutes. Noni Madueke has not registered a goal or an assist against top-flight opposition since heading in the opener of a 1–1 draw with Brentford on Feb. 12, 2026.

Leandro Trossard may have created Gyökeres’s third goal against Fulham, but he is still waiting for his first strike of 2026; his last goal against top-flight opposition came on Dec. 30, 2025 versus Aston Villa. Gabriel Martinelli has gone more than three months without finding the net, his most recent goal against top-flight opposition coming on Jan. 28, 2026 versus Kairat.

During those scoring droughts for Arsenal’s wide players, Saka missed 10 matches through injury, which made his return particularly welcome. “We know what he’s capable of,” Arteta said. “He’s come back in the most important period of the season and now he’s fresh, his mind is fresh, his hunger is at the highest possible height and I think he needed a performance like that to impact the team, so that’s a big platform for Tuesday.”

Saka’s 22-minute cameo in the first leg in Madrid was described as a struggle to find the speed of the contest, and there is hope he will fare better with a start at the Emirates. Availability questions remain elsewhere: Martin Ødegaard missed Saturday’s league outing after reportedly suffering from knee discomfort during the first leg against Atlético.