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Carabao Cup quarterfinals: clear favourites and the underdogs chasing Wembley

Carabao Cup quarters: Cardiff-Chelsea, Man City-Brentford, Newcastle-Fulham, Arsenal-Palace preview.

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The quarterfinals of the Carabao Cup present a clear pathway to Wembley and a chance for silverware for the leading contenders. Three heavyweights stand out as favourites, while Premier League challengers and a League One side aim to upset the balance.

Cardiff City have a reputation for overperforming in this competition. The Welsh side, who were in the Championship when they reached the 2011–12 final via a favourable run of fixtures, pushed Liverpool to penalties in the showpiece before suffering heartbreak. Now fighting to escape League One, the Carabao Cup has not been a distraction; Swindon Town, Cheltenham, Burnley and Wrexham have all been discarded en route to the last eight. Their reward is a visit from Chelsea.

Chelsea have made life difficult for themselves in cup ties away to Lincoln City and Wolverhampton Wanderers, but Enzo Maresca should name a fairly strong team for the trip to Wales. If the Italian selects even a handful of regular starters, they should conquer Cardiff with little fuss. The Bluebirds will be keen to see a much-changed Chelsea teamsheet on Tuesday, offering hope of a surprise result, but a convincing defeat is the most likely outcome. Prediction: Cardiff 1–3 Chelsea.

Manchester City arrive brimming with confidence and represent a stern test for Brentford. Pep Guardiola’s men have claimed victory in five successive matches and, after their 2–1 win over Real Madrid, they breezed past Crystal Palace on the road last weekend. City have won the trophy four times under Guardiola and dominated the competition between 2018 and 2021, though they have not progressed beyond the last eight since. Brentford possess attacking options in Igor Thiago, Kevin Schade and Dango Ouattara, but an alarming away record in the league — seven defeats from eight — undermines their hopes. Prediction: Man City 3–0 Brentford.

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Newcastle, who lifted the trophy last season, face Fulham. Eddie Howe’s side beat Fulham 2–1 at St James’ Park this term with Bruno Guimarães’s last-gasp strike in October. Fulham, inspired by Harry Wilson at times, can threaten, but Newcastle should prevail at home. Prediction: Newcastle 2–1 Fulham.

Arsenal host Crystal Palace a week later because Palace are in the Europa Conference League. Palace have enjoyed two days out at Wembley in the past seven months, conquering Man City in the FA Cup final and beating Liverpool in the Community Shield. Arsenal beat Palace 1–0 on home soil earlier this season and, despite Palace’s capacity to defy the odds, the Gunners should reach the semis. Prediction: Arsenal 2–0 Crystal Palace.

Arsenal

Arteta to Manage Saka’s Minutes as Arsenal Prepare for Champions League Second Leg

Arteta will manage Saka’s minutes ahead of Tuesday’s second leg as Arsenal carry a 1–1 tie. on Tues.

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Mikel Arteta warned he will limit Bukayo Saka’s load after the winger was withdrawn as a precaution at half-time of Saturday’s win over Fulham. Saka had started but was taken off after 45 minutes in the league victory, having recently returned from an injury absence.

“We had to,” the Arsenal boss admitted. “He played 30-odd minutes in Madrid, now he’s played 45 minutes. We need to ramp up his load but we need to be careful because we need him on that pitch.” The remarks offered reassurance to supporters ahead of Tuesday’s Champions League second leg against Atlético Madrid, with the tie level at 1–1.

Saka’s return has coincided with a goal drought among Arsenal’s wide players. After his match-winning first-half contribution on Saturday he was replaced by Noni Madueke. The summer recruit enjoyed a bright start while filling in but has struggled for end product after extended minutes. Noni Madueke has not registered a goal or an assist against top-flight opposition since heading in the opener of a 1–1 draw with Brentford on Feb. 12, 2026.

Leandro Trossard may have created Gyökeres’s third goal against Fulham, but he is still waiting for his first strike of 2026; his last goal against top-flight opposition came on Dec. 30, 2025 versus Aston Villa. Gabriel Martinelli has gone more than three months without finding the net, his most recent goal against top-flight opposition coming on Jan. 28, 2026 versus Kairat.

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During those scoring droughts for Arsenal’s wide players, Saka missed 10 matches through injury, which made his return particularly welcome. “We know what he’s capable of,” Arteta said. “He’s come back in the most important period of the season and now he’s fresh, his mind is fresh, his hunger is at the highest possible height and I think he needed a performance like that to impact the team, so that’s a big platform for Tuesday.”

Saka’s 22-minute cameo in the first leg in Madrid was described as a struggle to find the speed of the contest, and there is hope he will fare better with a start at the Emirates. Availability questions remain elsewhere: Martin Ødegaard missed Saturday’s league outing after reportedly suffering from knee discomfort during the first leg against Atlético.

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Analytics & Stats

Opta Forecast: Arsenal Hold Edge as Title Race, Europe and Survival Remain Tight

Opta model favours Arsenal after 3-0 win; title race, Champions League and relegation remain tight.

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Arsenal sit in control of the Premier League title race after a 3–0 win over Fulham, but the margins are slim. The Opta supercomputer projects Arsenal to finish on 82.28 expected points from their current 76, giving them a 79.70% chance of being champions. Manchester City, on 70 points, are forecast at 79.30 expected points with a 20.30% title probability.

That six-point advantage is meaningful, yet fragile. On paper, Arsenal are in an imposing position, but City face two fixtures that matter: away at Everton on Monday and then Brentford on Saturday. If City are perfect in those games they can erase the gap, and by the time Arsenal next play in the Premier League the two clubs would be level on games played.

The Opta model also lays out the race for Champions League football. Manchester United, on 61 points and an expected 67.03, are shown with a 100.00% chance of qualifying and can confirm their place with victory over Liverpool on Sunday. Aston Villa and Liverpool are close: Villa sit on 58 points with 64.15 expected and a 99.01% chance, while Liverpool also have 58 points with 64.00 expected and a 98.63% chance. Brighton are projected to finish with 55.17 expected points from 50 now and sit on a 0.69% chance of Champions League qualification. Bournemouth (49, 54.45, 0.51%), Brentford (51, 54.30, 0.51%) and Chelsea (48, 53.79, 0.60%) are all shown outside the automatic certainty but still within reach of European action.

At the bottom, the simulation makes relegation clear for two clubs. Burnley (20 points, 22.74 expected) and Wolverhampton Wanderers (18 points, 21.02 expected) have 100.00% relegation chances and will be replaced in the Championship by Coventry City and Ipswich Town. The final slot remains undecided. Nottingham Forest (39, 44.12, 0.97%) look relatively safe, while West Ham (36, 39.25, 48.78%) and Tottenham (34, 38.70, 50.22%) are in the precarious positions. Tottenham are currently backed for the drop, although victory over Aston Villa in Sunday’s late game would see Roberto De Zerbi’s side climb out of the relegation zone with four games left to play.

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Saka’s Return Spurs Arsenal to a 3-0 Victory Over Fulham

Saka returned and influenced Arsenal’s 3-0 win over Fulham; Gyökeres with a first-half brace. Strong.

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Bukayo Saka returned to the starting line-up and played a decisive role as Arsenal recorded a 3-0 home win over Fulham. The result allowed the Gunners to protect energy ahead of Tuesday’s Champions League semifinal second leg against Atlético Madrid while improving their goal difference as a domestic margin.

The performance was Saka’s most influential since a Champions League match with Monaco in December 2024. After that game Arteta challenged his winger to “go to the next step” which came with the target of scoring “30 or 40” goals in a season. Injuries, linked in the piece to Arteta’s demands on his constant involvement, have limited Saka’s minutes. The Fulham match was his first start in any competition since the March international break and lasted 45 minutes.

Arteta had said pregame: “Penetration is one of the words we use the most,” Arteta fretted pregame, “players taking initiative and making things happen … It’s extremely difficult against a team that is so organized, so we need to find other ways.” One chosen route was to involve Saka early, and he produced the spark Arsenal needed.

Viktor Gyökeres opened the scoring after Saka created the opening opportunity, and the Swedish striker later provided the pass for Saka’s goal. Gyökeres’s first-half brace and Saka’s contribution left the home crowd satisfied. Saka did not emerge for the second half, the only noticeable concern from an otherwise controlled afternoon.

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Player ratings (selected):
GK: David Raya 7.7
RB: Ben White 7.1
CB: William Saliba 7.0
CB: Gabriel 7.3
LB: Riccardo Calafiori 7.5
CM: Declan Rice 7.4
AM: Eberechi Eze 6.5
RW: Bukayo Saka 8.7
ST: Viktor Gyökeres 9.1
LW: Leandro Trossard 8.6

Subs of note: Noni Madueke (46’ for Saka) 6.3; Martín Zubimendi (64’ for Rice) 6.9; Gabriel Jesus (64’ for Gyökeres) 6.1.

Key match statistics: possession 54% to 46%; expected goals 2.97 to 0.43; total shots 18 to 10; shots on target 9 to 1; big chances 7 to 1; passing accuracy 89% to 83%; fouls 7 to 12.

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