Matchday 21 failed to produce the decisive shift some supporters expected. Manchester City, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur all dropped points, yet Arsenal could not capitalise fully, settling for a goalless draw with Liverpool.

Opta’s supercomputer updated its post-Matchday 21 forecast and still places Arsenal top of its projections. The model gives Arsenal 49 current points, an expected total of 84.67 points by May and a 86.98% chance of winning the title. The prediction notes that the projected points total would not have been enough to lift the Premier League trophy in eight of the last nine seasons.

Manchester City and Aston Villa remain the next most likely challengers. Opta lists Man City on 43 points with an expected 74.50 and an 8.62% title probability after three consecutive draws to start the new year. Aston Villa are also on 43 points with an expected 73.30 and a 4.21% chance; Unai Emery’s side shared points with Crystal Palace on Wednesday.

The supercomputer’s continental-place projections keep Liverpool in the Champions League positions on current form. Liverpool have 35 points and are projected to reach 64.40 with a 56.97% Champions League probability, the model noting the club’s 10-game unbeaten run following the draw with Arsenal.

Chelsea are in difficulty on results and discipline. The Blues have 31 points, are on a five-game winless run and fell 2-1 to Fulham after Marc Cucurella saw red in the 22nd minute. Opta still projects Chelsea to finish with 57.85 points and a 13.97% Champions League chance, but the club must arrest its slide.

Manchester United have dropped points in their last three matches. Opta gives them a 4.50% chance of reaching the Champions League and projects 54.61 expected points, which would place them just above Brighton in the predicted table. Fulham’s victory over Chelsea moves them into the projected top 10, while Tottenham are forecast to finish 12th.

At the bottom, Opta hands realistic relegation probabilities to five clubs. Leeds (22 points) and Nottingham Forest (21) are projected to survive on about 41 and 40.58 points respectively. West Ham (14), Burnley (13) and Wolves (7) carry much higher risks, with Wolves at a 99.31% chance of relegation in the model.

Exceptional one‑game goal tallies have punctuated football history across competitions and eras. The professional record belongs to Stefan Dembicki, who scored 16 times for RC Lens in their 32–0 win over Auby Asturies in the 1942 Coupe de France.

Other extraordinary individual hauls include Hacène Lalmas and Malika-e-Noor, who each scored 14 in single matches in Algeria and Pakistan respectively. Yanick Djouzi Manzizila once netted 21 goals for Congo United, an achievement noted outside the professional ranks.

In the women’s game Shokhan Salihi holds the record for the most goals scored in a women’s football match, bagging 15 of Al Hilal’s 18 unanswered goals in the Saudi Women’s Premier League. Sama were the club on the wrong end of that 2022–23 demolition.

The Premier League era has seen five players score five goals in a game. Andy Cole was first, scoring five of Manchester United’s nine goals in their win over Ipswich Town in 1995. Alan Shearer followed four years later. Jermain Defoe scored five for Tottenham against Wigan in 2009 and Dimitar Berbatov matched that total against Blackburn in November 2010. Sergio Agüero is the most recent to score five in the competition, with Manchester City’s 6–1 victory over Newcastle in 2015.

Five is also the Champions League benchmark. Lionel Messi was the first to reach it in March 2012 as Barcelona beat Bayer Leverkusen 7-1 in the round of 16. Luiz Adriano scored five for Shakhtar Donetsk in October 2014 against BATE Borisov. Erling Haaland scored five against RB Leipzig in March 2023, all within an hour before being given an early rest.

On the continent, Gerd Müller scored five in a European Cup game in 1972, joining Paul Van Himst, Claudio Sulser and Søren Lerby as five‑goal scorers in the competition’s earlier era. Aritz Aduriz holds the Europa League single‑game mark with five in a 5–3 win over Genk in 2016. La Liga’s single‑game record is seven, shared by Agustín Sauto Arana and László Kubala. Serie A’s top mark is six, shared by Silvio Piola and Omar Sívori, while Dieter Müller’s six in the Bundesliga remains the league record. Rewinding to the 1930s, remarkably the only two seven‑goal hauls in Ligue 1 history were recorded within three years of each other.

Ruben Amorim departed Manchester United after a 14-month spell that produced a run of statistics which will define his time in charge. Across all competitions he managed 63 games: 25 wins, 15 draws and 23 losses, with United scoring 122 and conceding 114.

The Premier League record was weaker. In 47 league matches Amorim recorded 15 wins, 13 draws and 19 defeats, scoring 66 and conceding 72. Those results yielded 58 points and an average of 1.23 points per game, the lowest points-per-game figure of any United manager in the Premier League era. The previous low was Ralf Rangnick on 1.54.

Amorim’s overall win percentage across all competitions was 39.68%. That sits well below several recent predecessors: Sir Alex Ferguson 61.34%, José Mourinho 58.33%, Erik ten Hag 56.25%, Ole Gunnar Solskjær 54.76%, Louis van Gaal 52.43% and David Moyes 50.98%.

Player usage under Amorim shows Bruno Fernandes leading appearances with 58. Diogo Dalot played 54 times, Leny Yoro 53, Noussair Mazraoui 49 and Manuel Ugarte 49. Goalscoring was concentrated: Bruno Fernandes led with 20 goals, Amad Diallo scored 10, Joshua Zirkzee and Rasmus Højlund both finished on eight, and Bryan Mbeumo contributed seven.

Amorim’s spell also contained several negative firsts. In December 2024 he became the quickest United manager to reach four Premier League defeats, doing so in 10 games, and he was the first manager since 1932 to lose five of his opening 10 across all competitions. The 2024–25 campaign, half of which was spent under his leadership, produced United’s first-ever season without consecutive wins and ended with club records for fewest wins (10), fewest goals (42), fewest points (39) and most defeats (17).

The 2025–26 season began poorly as Amorim became the fastest manager in Premier League history to reach 15 defeats, reaching that mark in his 28th league game. His final match, a 1–1 draw with Leeds United, completed a run of 15 consecutive away Premier League games without a clean sheet for United.