Erling Haaland’s fifth-minute finish proved decisive as Manchester City beat Burnley 1-0 at Turf Moor to move to the top of the Premier League. City dominated territory and chances from the first whistle but rarely found the clinical edge to match their control.

City fired 13 shots in the first half and 28 in total, yet managed only nine on target and a single goal. The visitors could have been four up by the break but were wasteful in the final third, finishing with three big chances compared to Burnley’s two. Burnley were not without threat. They fashioned five meaningful opportunities down the left, frequently exploiting an overwhelmed and disconnected Matheus Nunes on the right. Donnarumma produced a solid performance to deny the hosts from turning the game, while Burnley goalkeeper Dúbravka made several key saves that kept the scoreline narrow.

The win added to the momentum from City’s 2-1 victory over Arsenal at the weekend and sets up a quick turnaround for the FA Cup semifinal against Southampton on Saturday. Despite the points, the manner of the victory highlighted two issues: finishing in the final third and occasional defensive vulnerability, particularly on the right in the first half.

Player ratings

GK: Gianluigi Donnarumma—7.8: Did everything he needed to do, despite facing more shots than he should have on Wednesday.
RB: Matheus Nunes—7.8: Burned twice on his side by Burnley within the first six minutes, giving the hosts two early opportunities on frame. Completely disconnected from Abdukodir Khusanov.
CB: Abdukodir Khusanov—8.1: Hard to blame him for Nunes’s shortcomings, but his side was the only source of respite for Burnley for a reason. Did have a key, sliding recovery on a dangerous breakaway in the 30th minute.
CB: Marc Guéhi—7.5: Did well to recover from the discombobulation of Nunes and Khusanov.
LB: Rayan Aït-Nouri—7.4: Solid performance on the left side. Completely closed off that channel for Loum Tchaouna.
CM: Nico O’Reilly—7.2: Enjoyed a rare start, but was the key to building the attack and maintaining a steady, yet relentless tempo.
CM: Bernardo Silva—8.6: Brilliant connections with Doku all night long. Solid as always.
RM: Antoine Semenyo—6.8: Explosive and strategic with his runs off the ball. Key to getting them in the final third. Burned Quilindschy Hartman and Maxime Estève all night, often at the same time.
AM: Rayan Cherki—8.5: Pushed extremely high in attack, creating constant pressure in the final third in partnership with Haaland to overwhelm the center backs. Created four opportunities within the first 25 minutes. Simultaneously patient on the ball.
LM: Jérémy Doku—8.2: Responsible for the creation of Haaland’s early goal. Controlled a bouncing ball at the midline before sending the striker off to the races. Incredibly challenging for Burnley to track all over the final third.
ST: Erling Haaland—8.3: Had a brilliant run to go one-on-one with Dúbravka and chipped the ball to side netting for his 23rd league goal of the season. Stellar.

Subs: Savinho (65’ for Semenyo)—6.7; Nico González (65’ for Aït-Nouri)—7.0. Subs not used: James Trafford, John Stones, Nathan Aké, Mateo Kovacic, Phil Foden, Tijjani Reijnders, Omar Marmoush.

Key match stats: Possession 65% to 35%. Expected goals 3.15 to 0.57. Total shots 28 to 9. Shots on target 9 to 1. Big chances 3 to 2. Pass accuracy 90% to 79%. Fouls 12 to 10.

Gameweek 33 brings both headaches and opportunities for FPL managers as several teams play twice. The double fixtures make prioritising players from the right squads crucial, with Bournemouth, Brighton & Hove Albion, Burnley, Chelsea, Leeds United and Manchester City all on double duty.

Goalkeepers
Karl Darlow (£3.9m) stands out because of his low price and fixtures against Wolverhampton Wanderers (H) and Bournemouth (A). He has scored 16 points across his last three fixtures and looks nailed on for the remainder of the season. Gianluigi Donnarumma (£5.6m) also offers two fixtures, Arsenal (H) and Burnley (A), but his inclusion uses one of three Man City slots managers may prefer to spend on midfield and forward assets. Đorđe Petrović (£4.6m) is a Bournemouth alternative after three clean sheets in his last six outings versus Newcastle United (A) and Leeds (H).

Defenders
Bournemouth defenders Marcos Senesi (£5.2m) and James Hill (£4.2m) present clean sheet potential and solid defensive contribution totals, while Adrien Truffert (£4.7m) provides more attacking upside via assists. Leeds options Pascal Struijk (£4.3m), Jayden Bogle (£4.4m) and Gabriel Gudmundsson (£3.8m) offer differing mixes of defensive reliability and attacking threat. Marc Cucurella (£6.0m) is the main Chelsea defender to consider despite matches with Manchester United (H) and Brighton (A) being tough for clean sheets. Nico O’Reilly (£5.0m) would be an obvious pick after a 14-point weekend and 52 points in six gameweeks, but he is an injury concern; Marc Guéhi (£5.1m) is a viable alternative if O’Reilly is ruled out.

Midfield and attack
Antoine Semenyo (£8.2m) remains an attractive midfield option despite high ownership. Rayan Cherki (£6.3m) offers a differential and Jérémy Doku (£6.4m) provides explosive potential. Cole Palmer (£10.5m) will start both Chelsea games and is on spot kicks. Bournemouth’s Marcus Tavernier (£5.4m) is notable for set-piece and penalty responsibility versus Rayan (£5.5m) and Alex Scott (£5.0m). Pascal Groß (£5.5m) and Yankuba Minteh (£5.5m) could be short-term Brighton values.

Forwards
Erling Haaland (£14.4m) is the obvious captaincy candidate across two fixtures, with particular promise in the Burnley match. João Pedro (£7.7m) is a reliable pick given Chelsea’s double and his 82 points since Liam Rosenior took charge; he faces little competition for his starting role.

The relegation battle in the 2025/26 Premier League tightened significantly after Tottenham Hotspur’s 3-1 defeat to Crystal Palace. Positive results for West Ham United (a 1-0 win over Fulham) and Nottingham Forest (a 2-2 draw at Manchester City) left both clubs level on 28 points and intensified the fight at the bottom.

Leeds United remain precarious. Daniel Farke’s side sit 15th, just three points clear of the current relegation group, making this a contest that could shift quickly.

Opta’s supercomputer produces the following projection for the bottom six:

– Leeds: current 31 points, expected 42.09, relegation chance 8.09%
– Tottenham: current 29 points, expected 40.04, relegation chance 16.10%
– Nottingham Forest: current 28 points, expected 39.08, relegation chance 26.88%
– West Ham: current 28 points, expected 37.49, relegation chance 49.53%
– Burnley: current 19 points, expected 27.07, relegation chance 99.36%
– Wolves: current 16 points, expected 24.62, relegation chance 99.92%

Wolverhampton Wanderers have improved form after a draw with Arsenal and successive wins over Aston Villa and Liverpool, but the supercomputer underlines that their season was effectively over months ago, with the club not recording a victory until the 20th game. Burnley sit 10 points adrift; Opta’s model projects only eight more points for the Clarets and expects their return to the Championship to be confirmed well before the final day.

The model largely maintains the current ordering and gives West Ham the highest chance of relegation among the quartet fighting to avoid the drop into the second tier. Forest are forecast to finish two points clear of the relegation places, with Tottenham projected to reach 40.04 points and stand as the final side to reach the 40-point threshold. Opta assigns a 16.10% chance of relegation to Igor Tudor’s side, a near doubling of their previous prediction before Thursday’s defeat. The fixture between Tottenham and Forest on March 22 now carries clear significance for both clubs.