Premier League
First Goalscorer Picks and Form Notes for Premier League Gameweek 18
Picks for first goalscorer across Gameweek 18: key forwards, form notes and Boxing Day context. 2025
Gameweek 18 is the penultimate round of fixtures in the first half of the 2025/26 Premier League and also the division’s traditional Boxing Day slate. Below are the first goalscorer selections and the form context that informs them for each matchday pick.
After his brace against Chelsea at the weekend, Manchester United’s leaky backline had better watch out for Newcastle striker Nick Woltemade. The towering German combines physical presence with finishing that can unsettle defences.
Two more last time out mean that Erling Haaland has now scored an even higher proportion of Manchester City’s Premier League goals this season than before gameweek 17.
Viktor Gyökeres returned to the scoresheet from the penalty spot as Arsenal beat Everton, breaking the deadlock with what turned out to be the only goal of that game.
It’s been four Premier League games without a goal for Brentford striker Igor Thiago. However, playing the percentages suggest that he’s due after scoring 11 in his first 13 appearances of the season.
Goals have been harder to come by for Everton since the November international window, with strikes frequently arriving in the second half. By that stage, Beto is usually off the bench and could capitalise against a Burnley side likely to be ground down.
The injury to Alexander Isak has only strengthened the grip that Hugo Ekitiké has on Liverpool’s starting No. 9 position. The Frenchman opened the scoring for the third game running when the Reds beat Spurs on Saturday.
Jarrod Bowen has hit form in recent games, netting in two out of his last three outings after not previously scoring in the Premier League since September. As a team, West Ham will fancy their chances in this East vs. West London derby.
Cole Palmer is regaining fitness and that makes him dangerous. The Chelsea talisman managed 78 minutes against Newcastle at the weekend, his most in a single game since September. When he’s on it, the Englishman can score a goal out of nothing.
Into the first of Sunday, December 28’s kick offs, Wilson Isiodor is the one to watch as Sunderland host Leeds United in a fixture that was last played in the Premier League in 2002.
Chelsea
Palmer’s England setback could strengthen Chelsea’s early-season momentum
Palmer’s England setback may disappoint him, but Chelsea can benefit from his extra rest.
Cole Palmer must wait a little longer for another chance to convince Thomas Tuchel on the England stage, but the delay may suit Chelsea just fine.
Palmer has not featured for England since March 2026 and missed this summer’s World Cup. A strong start to the 2026/27 season had earned him a recall, and Tuchel accepted that he deserved the opportunity to show he belongs in the squad full-time. That opportunity now looks set to slip away for the time being.
Inside Chelsea, there will be sympathy for the player, but also a clear sense that his absence from international duty could help club matters. The mood around the team is not especially bright after two defeats and a draw, yet Palmer has been one of the clearest positives under Xabi Alonso.
His return to form has been reflected in the numbers. Four goals and two assists in seven games represent an encouraging opening stretch, and Palmer himself has spoken about enjoying his football again in Alonso’s fluid forward line. Tactics have helped, but so has the value of a proper summer break.
Last season was hindered by the lingering effects of a groin injury, and his output dropped to 11 goals and three assists in all competitions. Given that context, being left out of England’s World Cup squad was painful but not unexpected. It also created the long recovery period he needed.
For the first time in months, Palmer was able to step away from the demands of match football and focus purely on recovery between May and August. That pause has clearly paid off in the opening weeks of the campaign.
Chelsea supporters wanted to see him back on the international stage, but few would oppose another three-week break if it produces the same level of sharpness. Tuchel, though, has made his stance clear. He values the same core of players and prioritises what he sees from them in an England shirt.
Since Tuchel arrived in January 2025, Palmer has played only 158 minutes for England across three appearances. Injuries and poor form have limited his chances, while others have moved ahead by making the most of their own opportunities.
Palmer has already worked his way back into Tuchel’s thinking once this month, and could do so again by maintaining his goals and assists for Chelsea. For now, however, the bar appears higher after another international window away from England.
Analytics & Stats
Premier League Matchday 5: every side judged before the international break
A full Premier League Matchday 5 review before the season’s first international break arrived.
The first international pause of the season arrived with a final round that felt, in every sense, like a term-end review. Before attention turns away from the Premier League for three weeks, there was one more set of performances to assess.
Arsenal were out of the contest almost immediately. After just 18 seconds, they were forced back into their own corner from the opening throw-in and never recovered. The 3-0 defeat was made to look even heavier by Brighton’s two fine long-range efforts, but the visitors were second best throughout. It was the sort of loss that invites awkward questions.
Nottingham Forest could not settle the nerves at the City Ground. Oliver Glasner admitted that the “entire City Ground was nervous” and his side did little to calm the atmosphere in a stubborn game against Coventry. The manager was left “frustrated” and “disappointed,” emotions echoed in the stands once the tension took hold.
Tottenham continue to frustrate, only in a different way. Roberto De Zerbi sounded exhausted by another 3-2 defeat, insisting, “These players, they don’t need to play better,” before adding that what Spurs require is more “blood” and “fight.”
Chelsea’s defeat at Brentford followed a more gradual collapse. There was little obviously wrong in the opening hour, and Xabi Alonso had wanted his side to be more “boring,” but the match quickly slipped away. Ipswich, meanwhile, stayed alive despite conceding early and finishing with 10 men at Everton, where Gary O’Neil said, “The only disappointment is the result.”
Leeds had a clear chance through Dominic Calvert-Lewin, but the fresh England call-up could not convert. At the other end, James Trafford was busier than Walter Benítez in a game that ended in another encouraging clean sheet for Pierre Sage’s side.
Manchester United’s trip to Fulham brought fierce criticism, with Gary Neville saying, “I’ve watched Manchester United since the age of 5,” and that the second half’s opening 15 minutes were “the worst 15 minutes I’ve ever seen.” Fulham settled for a “frustrating” 1-1 draw, while Calvin Bassey called it “a game of luck, we both had it on our side.”
Elsewhere, Everton’s win was functional rather than elegant, Aston Villa needed a lift and got one, Bournemouth were left empty-handed, Sunderland earned admiration despite defeat at the Etihad, Newcastle held on after a nervy finish, Liverpool were second best for long spells, and Manchester City’s chaotic game left Enzo Maresca saying, “Too many goals,” before admitting, “I’m always concerned, always trying to see what we can do better.” Coventry’s long wait for a Premier League win finally ended, and Frank Lampard had every reason to enjoy it.
Premier League
Opta model revises Premier League race after City seize control
Opta’s latest simulations reshape the title, European and relegation races after City beat Sunderland.
Manchester City’s emphatic eight-goal victory over Sunderland has shifted the Premier League picture, with Opta’s supercomputer now placing them level on projected title value with Arsenal at the top of the table.
That follows Mikel Arteta’s pre-season deflection when he was asked about Arsenal’s title defence. “Our friend is not here today with a supercomputer,” he cackled in an attempt to avoid the question. The model is here now, and after 10,000 simulations it has turned that debate into numbers.
On current points, City lead the way with 15, but Arsenal remain narrowly ahead in projected points, 76.06 to 75.64, and are given a 43.52% chance of lifting the title. City are close behind on 40.96%. Liverpool, Brighton and Chelsea trail in the next tier, with Brighton’s place among the contenders standing out despite their 3-0 win over Arsenal already altering the mood around them.
City’s start has been perfect even if it has not always looked effortless, with Bournemouth, Coventry and Sunderland all offering resistance. Their edge, as the model sees it, comes from a team built around the world’s best goalkeeper and the sport’s most ruthless striker.
Further down, the race for Europe remains tight. Brentford, who came so close last season, continue to threaten qualification, while Manchester United are rated as having slightly better odds of finishing third than of slipping into the bottom three. Aston Villa also need a major improvement if they are to return to the Champions League.
At the other end, Tottenham sit bottom after the first elongated international break, despite heavy summer spending. Opta’s simulations still place them in the relegation discussion more than 30% of the time, a bleak outcome for a club with major resources. That explains why Roberto De Zerbi is “very disappointed, very sad, very frustrated.”
