Opta’s supercomputer still ranks Arsenal ahead in the title race despite Manchester City’s late reply at Brentford and a tightening gap. City reduced Arsenal’s lead to two points with both clubs having three matches remaining, but the model continues to favour the Gunners in most scenarios.

Jérémy Doku had been on target twice against Everton on Monday night, yet those goals could not stop City dropping points in a 3–3 draw. Erling Haaland, who scored against Brentford, insisted his team were “still in it” after the Everton setback. Saturday’s reaction at Brentford and the potential importance of goal difference in this finish were both underlined by City’s late flurry.

Opta’s projections list Arsenal on 76 actual points with a predicted 82.37 points and a 79.7% chance of winning the title. Manchester City sit on 74 actual points with a predicted 79.55 points and a 20.3% title probability. Arsenal were given an 85% chance of winning the league in the immediate aftermath of City’s stumble on Merseyside earlier this week.

The computer’s view takes in upcoming schedules. City are shown with fixtures against Crystal Palace and Aston Villa either side of a trip to Bournemouth, a sequence the model judges tricky because Bournemouth remain in the chase for Champions League qualification.

Elsewhere, Manchester United’s place in the Champions League was effectively sealed as they crawled to a goalless draw with Sunderland in their first game after securing qualification. Opta projects United to reach 68.01 points with a 100% chance of qualifying for Europe’s top competition. Liverpool drew 1–1 with Chelsea and still need another win to guarantee a top-five finish. “We wanted to qualify for it weeks ago,” Slot sighed. “It isn’t the season we’re having, though. Sometimes it is really hard to accept these results because we are used to different ones.”

Bournemouth’s manager reflected on survival and ambition after a 1–0 win over Fulham. “Today was a very important step forward,” Bournemouth’s Andoni Iraola beamed after his side battled to a 1–0 win over Fulham on Saturday, “but we still have to get more points.” Brighton’s captain also noted the season’s extremes. “It’s a mental season,” club captain Lewis Dunk gushed, “one minute we’re looking at relegation and now we’re talking about Europe, it’s great fun football, isn’t it?”

On the bottom end, Tottenham conclude the matchday with a crunch clash against Leeds on Monday and their chances of survival have improved, while West Ham do not face Arsenal until Sunday.

Manchester City were left to rue another slip as they came away with a point from a 3-3 draw with Everton. “We’re still in it,” Haaland offered to his teammates while processing the chaotic 90 minutes. City sit five points behind the Gunners having played one game fewer, but Pep Guardiola was blunt: “It’s not in our hands.”

Opta’s supercomputer gives Arsenal the clear advantage. The model lists Arsenal on 76 points with an expected 82.30 and title chances of 85.24%. Manchester City are on 71 points with an expected 78.75 and title chances of 14.76%. Arsenal have been favourites for months and were given the edge even after City briefly reclaimed top spot with a win over Burnley in April.

City must now hope Arsenal drop points in at least one of their remaining fixtures against West Ham United, Burnley and Crystal Palace, three sides the Gunners have already beaten in the league this season. Arsenal’s 3-0 win over Fulham on Saturday suggested a straightforward run-in, though that Fulham side had been struck by a roster-wide virus. The north London players carry the weight of three years of second-place finishes as they chase a 22-year wait for top-flight glory.

The calendar also presents challenges for City: four games in 11 days with the FA Cup final included. Guardiola reminded reporters: “We have games left,” and added, “We will see what happens.” He had ceded the title earlier in the season only for his side to fight back.

Elsewhere Opta predicts Manchester United (64 points, expected 68.61) have secured Champions League football, with Liverpool and Aston Villa also highly likely to qualify. Villa, despite recent defeats including a loss to Tottenham that was their fifth in eight league games, remain buoyed by a previous run of 12 wins from 13. “In 35 games, things are very good,” Unai Emery insisted, “and we have the advantage to still be in the top five, but we must continue to be demanding.”

The model also maps a tight battle for sixth and a perilous relegation picture that places Burnley and Wolves as certain to go down and West Ham with a large danger percentage after a miserable weekend.

Arsenal sit in control of the Premier League title race after a 3–0 win over Fulham, but the margins are slim. The Opta supercomputer projects Arsenal to finish on 82.28 expected points from their current 76, giving them a 79.70% chance of being champions. Manchester City, on 70 points, are forecast at 79.30 expected points with a 20.30% title probability.

That six-point advantage is meaningful, yet fragile. On paper, Arsenal are in an imposing position, but City face two fixtures that matter: away at Everton on Monday and then Brentford on Saturday. If City are perfect in those games they can erase the gap, and by the time Arsenal next play in the Premier League the two clubs would be level on games played.

The Opta model also lays out the race for Champions League football. Manchester United, on 61 points and an expected 67.03, are shown with a 100.00% chance of qualifying and can confirm their place with victory over Liverpool on Sunday. Aston Villa and Liverpool are close: Villa sit on 58 points with 64.15 expected and a 99.01% chance, while Liverpool also have 58 points with 64.00 expected and a 98.63% chance. Brighton are projected to finish with 55.17 expected points from 50 now and sit on a 0.69% chance of Champions League qualification. Bournemouth (49, 54.45, 0.51%), Brentford (51, 54.30, 0.51%) and Chelsea (48, 53.79, 0.60%) are all shown outside the automatic certainty but still within reach of European action.

At the bottom, the simulation makes relegation clear for two clubs. Burnley (20 points, 22.74 expected) and Wolverhampton Wanderers (18 points, 21.02 expected) have 100.00% relegation chances and will be replaced in the Championship by Coventry City and Ipswich Town. The final slot remains undecided. Nottingham Forest (39, 44.12, 0.97%) look relatively safe, while West Ham (36, 39.25, 48.78%) and Tottenham (34, 38.70, 50.22%) are in the precarious positions. Tottenham are currently backed for the drop, although victory over Aston Villa in Sunday’s late game would see Roberto De Zerbi’s side climb out of the relegation zone with four games left to play.