Jeremy Jacquet is our first Liverpool defender to consider if you want to keep the cost down. At £5.1m, he costs £0.3m less than Ronald Araujo and £1.3m less than Virgil van Dijk. His playing-time record and defensive contribution rate make that saving worth taking seriously.

For a new purchase, we would reassess after Arsenal at home in GW9. You can then decide whether Liverpool’s GW10–14 fixtures suit the weeks you need a defender. Van Dijk offers the stronger playing-time record if you have room for £6.4m; Araujo needs a clearer reason for the extra spend over Jacquet.

Jacquet offers the cheaper route

Jacquet has averaged 85.3 minutes per match, with 9.37 defensive contributions per 90. Araujo has averaged 61.6 minutes per match and 7.85 defensive contributions per 90. Neither average promises a future start, but Jacquet has given owners more playing time so far.

The attacking numbers offer little reason to pay up for Araujo. Jacquet has 0.07 expected goal involvements per 90 (xGI/90), compared with Araujo’s 0.02. Both rates are low, so we would buy either for the defensive role and budget fit rather than an expectation of regular attacking returns.

Araujo has the lower expected goals conceded rate: 0.97 xGC/90 against Jacquet’s 1.16. That deserves a place in the comparison, but the players have spent different amounts of time on the pitch. We would not treat it as proof that choosing Araujo gives you a better chance of a clean sheet in the next match.

Our lean is Jacquet when choosing between the two at current prices. Fresh selection news could change that call. Paying another £0.3m makes more sense if you can identify a role or playing-time advantage that the current record does not show.

Van Dijk costs £1.3m more for a stronger minutes record

Van Dijk has averaged 90.0 minutes per match. That is the strongest record of the three, alongside 9.75 defensive contributions per 90. His 1.20 xGC/90 and 0.05 xGI/90 do not establish a large expected-performance advantage over Jacquet.

At £6.4m, we would choose Van Dijk when you can afford the premium and place a high value on his playing-time record. You still need to check availability and selection news; a historical average cannot guarantee his next start.

For a tighter budget, Jacquet leaves £1.3m available elsewhere. Compare what you gain from that saving with the extra playing-time confidence you want from Van Dijk before committing to either player.

Plan the starts from GW10

Liverpool’s schedule after Arsenal includes three away matches in five:

• GW10: Crystal Palace away.
• GW11: Man Utd at home.
• GW12: Everton away.
• GW13: Sunderland at home.
• GW14: Chelsea away.

You need a plan for that whole stretch. A lower price helps, but you may still want another defender available for selected away fixtures. You can compare Liverpool’s defensive options in We Play FPL using player statistics and upcoming fixtures, then map out the starts in the planner.

We would shortlist Jacquet for value and Van Dijk for the stronger playing-time record, then revisit the choice after GW9 with fresh team news. Araujo’s lower xGC/90 merits attention, but his shorter average appearances and higher price leave us preferring Jacquet for the cheaper slot. These season-to-date rates describe past performance; they do not predict clean sheets or attacking returns.

Sell João Pedro if you need his place in your starting XI. His thigh injury means an absence of a few weeks, and there is no confirmed return date. Holding him now asks your bench to cover an uncertain spell, rather than one missed match.

That gives us a sell lean for GW9. You can still hold with dependable cover and more urgent transfers elsewhere, but do not build that decision around a guaranteed GW11 comeback.

Decide to sell before deciding when

João Pedro costs £7.8m as of 28 October. Before the injury, he averaged 86.8 minutes per match, with 0.53 xG/90 and 0.58 xGI/90. Those season-to-date attacking rates explain why owners wanted him; they offer no help while he cannot play.

Chelsea host Man Utd in GW9, visit Sunderland in GW10 and host Leeds in GW11. Treat those as scheduled fixtures, not a recovery timetable. A date on the fixture list does not tell you when João Pedro will regain fitness.

Choose the replacement and check the resulting XI before confirming a sale. An early move gives you less time to assess injuries and selection news. Waiting gives you more information, but you accept the chance that price changes reduce your options.

Moving early can make sense when a change would price you out of a transfer you already want. Check that the move survives other team news and that you could cope with another injury. Spare free transfers give you recovery options; you still risk spending one to repair the replacement.

Check your selling price before chasing a fall

Your purchase price determines how much a market fall affects your sale proceeds. Owners can face different decisions even when they hold the same player.

Consider an illustrative fall from £7.8m to £7.7m:

• If you bought at £7.5m, you would receive £7.6m at either market price.
• If you bought at £7.6m, your selling price would fall from £7.7m to £7.6m.

You keep half of a price gain, rounded down to the nearest £0.1m. Check the selling price in your own squad before treating a predicted fall as a deadline.

The example shows the calculation, not a forecast of another João Pedro drop. Check the replacement’s purchase price too: an unchanged selling price offers little comfort if the player you want rises beyond your budget.

Fund Isak without weakening the rest of your XI

Alexander Isak offers a premium replacement at £9.1m. The Liverpool forward has 0.68 xG/90 and 0.70 xGI/90, with an average of 81.0 minutes per match. Those are historical performance rates, not promised returns.

His next three fixtures are Arsenal at home, Crystal Palace away and Man Utd at home. Buy him because you want that holding period and can afford the squad around him, rather than expecting an easy immediate fixture.

The £1.3m gap between his market price and João Pedro’s is not necessarily your upgrade cost. Subtract your actual selling price from £9.1m, then check your bank. At a £7.6m selling price, you need £1.5m before using any cash already available.

One transfer with money in the bank, or two sensible moves, can support the upgrade. Three moves that weaken other starters are a high cost for reaching Isak. Count any points hits and inspect the players you would start after the changes. You can test the transfer sequence in We Play FPL, using future squad drafts to compare the line-ups before committing.

A Free Hit leaves the injury in your squad

A Free Hit lets you replace João Pedro for one Gameweek, then returns him to your underlying squad. You still need to manage his absence afterwards.

Use the chip only when the wider one-week gain justifies it. If this injury is your main problem, a permanent transfer addresses the weeks ahead; a Free Hit postpones that decision.

Our GW9 approach is to sell when you need a starting forward, check your own sale proceeds, and choose a replacement you can keep. Wait for more news when your budget allows it. If you hold, make sure your cover can handle an absence longer than you hope.

Evanilson is our GW9 pick if you need a forward to start through the next fixture run. At £6.2m, he costs £0.1m more than Dominic Calvert-Lewin and £0.5m less than Nicolas Jackson. Calvert-Lewin suits a squad with cover for difficult away matches, Jackson deserves consideration over six Gameweeks, and Thierno Barry offers the cheapest route at £5.6m.

Choose the role before making the transfer. You can accept a difficult fixture on a rotating third forward. You have less room for one when you need him in your XI each week.

Evanilson: our first choice for regular starts

Bournemouth face Leeds at home in GW9, Ipswich away in GW10 and Nott’m Forest at home in GW11. Evanilson gives you a route through those three matches without planning an immediate benching or another transfer.

He has started eight league matches and averages 84.8 minutes per match. His 0.41 xG/90 and 0.13 xA/90 produce 0.54 expected goal involvements per 90. Those season-to-date measures describe the chances he has had and created; they do not promise future returns.

We prefer him to Jackson when the extra £0.5m matters and you want a forward for the next three deadlines. Bournemouth then visit Fulham before hosting Brighton and Hull in GW13–14, so you can also consider a longer hold.

His selection record supports the purchase, but competition can change. Check the team news before treating eight starts as a guarantee of the ninth.

Calvert-Lewin: plan the bench before buying

At £6.1m, Calvert-Lewin has averaged 85.4 minutes per match and produced 0.47 xG/90 alongside 0.02 xA/90. He also has first penalty priority. You can make a sound case for him when you can choose his starts.

Leeds visit Bournemouth in GW9 and host Spurs in GW10. The matches that demand planning are Chelsea away in GW11 and Man City away in GW13. Between them, Leeds host Coventry in GW12, with Ipswich at home in GW14.

Name the player who would replace Calvert-Lewin in your XI for those two away trips. If that player has a good fixture and a dependable role, the rotation can work. If you would have to start a doubtful substitute or spend another transfer, the £0.1m saving against Evanilson offers little comfort.

You can test those GW11 and GW13 line-ups in the We Play FPL planner before confirming the move. Planning future squad drafts and transfers helps you judge whether you have enough cover.

Jackson: consider the full Villa run

Jackson costs £6.7m. Villa host Fulham in GW9, visit Man Utd in GW10, then face Sunderland at home, Ipswich away, Everton at home and Crystal Palace at home through GW14.

For a manager planning six Gameweeks of starts, that run makes him a credible alternative. The cost is the £0.5m premium over Evanilson. Jackson averages 78.1 minutes per match, with 0.30 xG/90 and 0.14 xA/90. His 0.44 xGI/90 trails Evanilson’s 0.54, so the extra spend depends on how you value Villa’s fixtures and Jackson’s role.

He sits second in the penalty order. Make the purchase on his open-play prospects and fixture run rather than assuming penalty returns.

Barry: the lowest-cost rotation option

Barry costs £5.6m, saving £0.6m against Evanilson. He has started eight matches, averages 85.3 minutes per match and has produced 0.67 xG/90 plus 0.02 xA/90. His 0.69 xGI/90 leads this group, though you should read it alongside the fixtures rather than turn it into a scoring forecast.

Everton visit Newcastle in GW9 and host Coventry in GW10. Brentford away, Liverpool at home and Villa away follow before Fulham at home in GW14.

We favour Barry when you want a playing third forward and can pick his starts. Coventry and Fulham at home offer two clear uses. Buying him for six automatic starts would require more confidence in the difficult matches between them.

Pick the forward your XI needs

For regular use from GW9, Evanilson gets our vote. Choose Calvert-Lewin when you can cover Chelsea and Man City away. Consider Jackson when you can afford £6.7m and want Villa’s six-match run. Barry suits a lower-cost third-forward spot with planned rotation.

Before committing, check the latest selection news and your intended XI for GW11 and GW13. A forward who fits those line-ups will serve your squad better than one chosen on price or the latest return alone.