The Opta supercomputer places Morocco as the clear favorite to win the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations. Hosting the tournament for the first time since 1988, Morocco combine home advantage with recent international form: they are FIFA’s highest-ranked African nation at 11th and their fourth-placed finish at the 2022 World Cup remains in recent memory. The model assigns Morocco a 19.1% chance of lifting the trophy.

Morocco’s squad depth helps explain that projection. Achraf Hakimi is listed as the talisman, supported by Brahim Díaz, Noussair Mazraoui and Yassine Bounou.

Three of the supercomputer’s four leading candidates come from North Africa. Egypt sits on a 12.4% chance. Mohamed Salah, Omar Marmoush and their teammates arrive with expectations after finishing runners-up in 2021, although Egypt have not claimed the title since 2010. Senegal are narrowly behind on 12.3%. The 2021 champions are the second highest-ranked African nation at 19th in FIFA’s standings. Twenty of their travelers play in Europe’s top five leagues, while three of the seven who do not are Édouard Mendy, Kalidou Koulibaly and Sadio Mané.

Algeria are given a 12.0% chance of a third title. They last triumphed in 2019 and their squad includes Rayan Aït-Nouri, Mohamed Amoura and 34-year-old captain Riyad Mahrez.

Nigeria are the fifth favorites at 7.3%. Despite offensive quality from Victor Osimhen and Ademola Lookman, the supercomputer flags Nigeria’s defence as short of elite options.

Tunisia (6.8%) and reigning champions Ivory Coast (6.7%) register almost identical probabilities. Tunisia have reached the quarterfinals in four of the last five tournaments. Ivory Coast, while no longer inspired by the generation that included Didier Drogba and Yaya Touré, still possess ample talent after winning on home soil two years ago.

Mali (6.4%) and Cameroon (4.1%) are long-shot possibilities. Cameroon face internal turmoil after a public dispute between Cameroonian Football Federation president Samuel Eto’o and manager Marc Brys; Brys refused to be sacked on the eve of the tournament and selected his own squad despite Eto’o also choosing a roster. South Africa (2.2%), DR Congo (2.0%) and the tournament underdogs Zimbabwe (0.2%) and Botswana (0.2%) complete the lower end of the model’s projections.

Bournemouth midfielder Tyler Adams faces a significant spell on the sidelines after suffering a torn MCL, a development that complicates the United States’ preparations for the 2026 World Cup.

“Tyler is injured. He has torn his MCL. So he will be out, definitely out for some time,” Bournemouth manager Andoni Iraola said at his press conference on Friday ahead of Saturday’s Burnley match. “Normally two, three months. Two months … optimistic, pessimistic … three, something like this. So, yes, it’s a big blow. It’s a big blow because it’s an important player for us. But straight away, when you see the mechanism, the action, we were feeling that there could be something there.”

Adams suffered the injury after blocking a shot from Man Utd forward Matheus Cunha and was quickly attended to by medical staff, who ran initial tests on his knee on the pitch. He attempted to return to the match, but Iraola indicated after the game that further tests were needed.

This Premier League season Adams has been in strong form, scoring two goals across 15 matches. He also became the first American to win the Premier League Goal of the Month award for his long-distance effort against Sunderland, which beat goalkeeper Robin Roefs.

A primary starter in USMNT manager Mauricio Pochettino’s plans, Adams could now miss crucial preparation time. The estimated recovery window should still allow him to be available for the World Cup, which the USMNT opens on June 12 in Los Angeles against Paraguay, but it places his involvement in doubt for two high-profile friendlies at home against Belgium and Portugal on March 28 and April 1.

If Adams misses those fixtures, the U.S. will have at most two matches — versus Senegal on May 31 and Germany on June 6 — to reintegrate him into the team ahead of the tournament. Adams has been a regular for the national side since his debut at 18 and captained the U.S. at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, starting four games as the team fell to the Netherlands in the Round of 16. His absence would represent a substantial setback to hopes of a deep run in 2026.

The 2025 Africa Cup of Nations opens on Dec. 21 in Morocco, with 24 nations contesting the continent’s premier international prize. Seven different winners since 2010 underline how open the competition remains and why identifying a single favourite before kick-off is difficult.

Nigeria arrive as one of the most talked-about attacking teams. With Victor Osimhen, Ademola Lookman, Alex Iwobi and Samuel Chukwueze, the Super Eagles possess game-changing forwards and a vibrant offensive profile. Éric Chelle’s side can rely on a strong supporting cast in midfield, but defensive concerns persist. Fulham’s Calvin Bassey and Porto’s Zaidu Sanusi are the clearest options at the back, while a rearguard that includes three English Championship defenders will be tested. Stanley Nwabali is not viewed as an elite goalkeeper and Nigeria’s failure to qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup adds pressure and incentive for redemption.

Algeria retain status among the contenders despite inconsistent recent tournaments. The 2019 champions failed to progress from the group stage in both 2021 and 2023 and have not won a match at three of the last four editions. Riyad Mahrez remains the squad’s creative fulcrum; the 34-year-old has slowed since leaving Manchester City for Al Ahli but still offers quality. Wolfsburg’s Mohamed Amoura led CAF World Cup qualifying with ten goals and averages a goal every two international appearances. Rayan Aït-Nouri and Ramy Bensebaini anchor an unspectacular defence, but Vladimir Petković brings experienced coaching that could carry Algeria deep into the event.

Egypt depend heavily on Mohamed Salah, who will aim to deliver the country’s first title since 2010. Egypt were beaten finalists in 2017 and lost to Senegal on penalties in 2021, experiences that will motivate Hossam Hassan’s side. Omar Marmoush has shared attacking duties and the squad benefits from cohesion: eight players represent Al Ahly and a further nine play for Pyramids or Zamalek.

Senegal arrive as recent winners and remain a potent force. Pape Thiaw has helped revive the Lions of Teranga after a disappointing 2023. Senegal went unbeaten in 2026 World Cup qualifying and secured a place in a group with France and Norway. A summer 3–1 victory over England at Wembley and a competitive defeat to Brazil in November signalled form. Twenty of the 27-man roster play in Europe’s top five leagues; Kalidou Koulibaly, Édouard Mendy and Sadio Mané provide experience despite moves to the Saudi Pro League. Iliman Ndiaye, Ismaïla Sarr and Nicolas Jackson lead the attack while Idrissa Gueye and Pape Matar Sarr offer midfield balance. These four nations are obvious candidates, but the tournament’s history suggests surprises remain possible.