Championship
Explaining Premier League Relegation and the 2025/26 Danger Zone
How Premier League relegation works and which clubs are closest to the drop in 2025/26. Live update.
Relegation remains the defining threat for clubs near the foot of the Premier League table. At season end the three teams finishing 18th, 19th and 20th are relegated to the Championship. The basic rule is simple: the three clubs with the fewest points go down.
If teams finish level on points, goal difference decides who drops, calculated by subtracting goals conceded from goals scored. If points and goal difference are identical, the team with the higher goals scored total takes the higher position. If still level, head-to-head records from the season are used, followed by disciplinary records and finally alphabetical order.
Promotion from the Championship replaces the three relegated clubs. The first- and second-place finishers earn automatic promotion, while the third spot is decided through the Championship playoffs.
Current form and the table suggest clear danger. Wolverhampton Wanderers are all but certain to be relegated this season. Despite a slight upturn in form after Christmas, it appears too little, too late; the club could theoretically still challenge the worst-ever points total in Premier League history, set at 11 by Derby County in 2007–08. Burnley also look destined for the drop, having not won a single game since October.
West Ham United sit in the third relegation position but have shown slow signs of improvement under Nuno Espírito Santo. On paper, the Hammers have enough quality to survive, but they still need to close the gap with Nottingham Forest and Leeds United.
Crystal Palace, decimated in both transfer windows, alongside Tottenham Hotspur and Brighton & Hove Albion, hover nearer the danger area though they are probably unlikely to go down.
Table (selected positions) as of 08-02-26:
16. Leeds United — Played 25, Points 29, Goal Difference -9
17. Nottingham Forest — Played 25, Points 26, Goal Difference -13
18. West Ham United — Played 25, Points 23, Goal Difference -17
19. Burnley — Played 25, Points 15, Goal Difference -24
20. Wolverhampton Wanderers — Played 25, Points 8, Goal Difference -32
Relegation carries a significant financial hit. Clubs typically lose around two-thirds of their revenue after the drop. The Premier League provides parachute payments to cushion the blow. Even those finishing bottom still earn substantial sums from broadcasting and other payments: in 2024–25 Leicester City, Ipswich Town, and Southampton took home £116.9 million, £111.1 million and £109.2 million respectively.
*Premier League table correct as of 08-02-26.
Championship
Opta model: Wrexham’s path to the Championship playoffs and promotion odds
Opta gives Wrexham a 20.86% shot at the playoffs; promotion still relies on results down the run-in.
Wrexham remain in the hunt for a third straight promotion after rising from a poor start in the Championship, but the path to the Premier League runs through the playoffs. The oldest club in Wales have found more consistent form since a difficult opening to the season, yet dropped points in their last two league matches against Millwall and Bristol City have checked their momentum.
Opta’s supercomputer supplies a clear snapshot of the title race and the contest for the top six. Coventry sit top of the table on 62 points with Middlesbrough one point behind on 61. The model predicts Coventry will finish on 85.43 expected points with a 47.12% chance of the title, while Middlesbrough are on 84.76 expected points and a 34.32% title probability. With totals so close, the margin for error in the final three months is minimal.
In the race for the playoffs, Opta projects the following outcomes. Ipswich Town (54 current points) are expected to reach 80.53 points with a 63.22% playoff probability. Millwall (56) are forecast to reach 77.27 points and hold a 76.96% chance. Hull City (54) are predicted to finish on 76.17 points with a 75.86% playoff likelihood. Southampton (46) are projected at 68.07 expected points and a 26.42% chance of making the top six.
Derby County (48) and Wrexham (48) are modelled to finish close together on around 67 points: Derby on 67.82 expected points with a 24.60% playoff probability and Wrexham on 67.41 expected points with a 20.86% chance. Preston (48) are at 66.60 expected points and 15.76% probability, while Bristol City (47) sit at 65.73 expected points and a 12.22% chance.
Teams finishing third to sixth contest the playoffs, with the winner joining the top two in promotion to the Premier League. Opta currently backs Ipswich Town, Millwall, Hull City and Southampton as the four sides most likely to contest the playoff places. For Wrexham, the model shows they are close but marginally outside the projected top six, leaving their dream of reaching the Premier League dependent on results in the run-in.
Championship
How a Six-Team Playoff Proposal Could Alter Wrexham’s Promotion Path
EFL clubs will vote on expanding Championship playoffs to six teams; implications for Wrexham. Next.
EFL clubs are due to vote on a proposal that would expand the Championship playoffs from four to six teams, a change that would alter the route to the Premier League and could benefit Wrexham. According to The Guardian, 72 EFL clubs are invited to the meeting, which will unfold on Mar. 5, to cast their votes about potentially allowing two more teams—those that finish in seventh and eighth—to participate in the Championship playoffs.
The new playoff structure would take effect next season if a simple majority of the 72 clubs and the 24 Championship sides vote to instate the changes approved by the EFL board. Reported options lean towards a model similar to the National League. Under that format the clubs finishing third and fourth would advance directly to the semi-finals. Teams finishing fifth, sixth, seventh and eighth would contest one-off knockout ties to determine the remaining semi-finalists.
In that scenario the fifth-placed team would play the eighth-placed team, while the sixth-place team would match up with the seventh-placed team. The higher-ranked club would have the advantage of hosting the single-leg tie. The playoffs would then continue as normal, with the semi-finals played across two legs and the winners progressing to the final at Wembley Stadium.
For Wrexham the proposal matters because the club’s long-term aim is Premier League football after a rapid rise since 2021. In their first Championship campaign in 43 years, the Red Dragons have a chance to secure a record-fourth consecutive promotion following the takeover by co-owners Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenney in 2021. Phil Parkinson’s men currently sit sixth in the standings through 31 games, keeping the playoffs within reach.
If Wrexham drop out of the top six by the end of 2025–26 or fail in the playoffs, their stay in the Championship would be extended for at least another season. The vote on Mar. 5 could change the pathway those ambitions follow.
Championship
Kalvin Phillips Agrees Loan Move to Sheffield United from Manchester City
Kalvin Phillips is set to join Sheffield United on a straight loan from Manchester City until summer
Manchester City midfielder Kalvin Phillips is set to spend the remainder of the season on loan at Championship side Sheffield United, according to The Athletic. The report describes a straight loan with no option to buy, subject to a successful medical, that will run until the summer.
Sheffield United arrive with mixed fortunes. The Blades sit in the bottom half of the Championship table and are closer to the relegation zone than the promotion playoffs, but the loan offers Phillips a path back to regular minutes. He brings to Bramall Lane extensive Championship experience from his time with Leeds United and was previously named England Men’s Player of the Year off the back of his performances at Euro 2020.
Phillips’ Manchester City transfer in the summer of 2022, when he moved from Leeds for a reported £45 million, has not gone as planned. Weeks into his first season with City he required surgery on a shoulder injury that set him back. Despite being selected for the 2022 World Cup by Gareth Southgate, his standing at City was damaged when Pep Guardiola publicly stated that the player was “overweight” when he reported back to Manchester after the tournament; the manager later apologised.
The midfielder’s situation is complicated by the long-term contract he signed on arrival at City. That deal reportedly still has two more seasons to run after this one, meaning City cannot easily release him until 2028. Wages are also a factor. Phillips is said to earn around £150,000 per week, a figure worth nearly £8 million per season and well beyond what any Championship club could match.
Given those terms, a permanent departure this season appears unlikely unless Manchester City and the player agree a financial settlement or compensation that allows the contract to be ended early. For now, the loan gives Phillips the immediate opportunity to play again and Sheffield United an experienced midfield option for the final months of the campaign.
