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Opta model: Wrexham’s path to the Championship playoffs and promotion odds

Opta gives Wrexham a 20.86% shot at the playoffs; promotion still relies on results down the run-in.

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Wrexham remain in the hunt for a third straight promotion after rising from a poor start in the Championship, but the path to the Premier League runs through the playoffs. The oldest club in Wales have found more consistent form since a difficult opening to the season, yet dropped points in their last two league matches against Millwall and Bristol City have checked their momentum.

Opta’s supercomputer supplies a clear snapshot of the title race and the contest for the top six. Coventry sit top of the table on 62 points with Middlesbrough one point behind on 61. The model predicts Coventry will finish on 85.43 expected points with a 47.12% chance of the title, while Middlesbrough are on 84.76 expected points and a 34.32% title probability. With totals so close, the margin for error in the final three months is minimal.

In the race for the playoffs, Opta projects the following outcomes. Ipswich Town (54 current points) are expected to reach 80.53 points with a 63.22% playoff probability. Millwall (56) are forecast to reach 77.27 points and hold a 76.96% chance. Hull City (54) are predicted to finish on 76.17 points with a 75.86% playoff likelihood. Southampton (46) are projected at 68.07 expected points and a 26.42% chance of making the top six.

Derby County (48) and Wrexham (48) are modelled to finish close together on around 67 points: Derby on 67.82 expected points with a 24.60% playoff probability and Wrexham on 67.41 expected points with a 20.86% chance. Preston (48) are at 66.60 expected points and 15.76% probability, while Bristol City (47) sit at 65.73 expected points and a 12.22% chance.

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Teams finishing third to sixth contest the playoffs, with the winner joining the top two in promotion to the Premier League. Opta currently backs Ipswich Town, Millwall, Hull City and Southampton as the four sides most likely to contest the playoff places. For Wrexham, the model shows they are close but marginally outside the projected top six, leaving their dream of reaching the Premier League dependent on results in the run-in.

Championship

Carrick and Maresca renew an old rivalry in Manchester derby build-up

Carrick has won both previous meetings with Maresca, and they meet again at Old Trafford.

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For the first Manchester derby in a decade without Pep Guardiola on the touchline, attention turns to another managerial meeting. After Guardiola stepped down from Manchester City at the end of last season, Sunday’s match at Old Trafford will place Enzo Maresca opposite Michael Carrick.

It is not the first time the two have crossed paths. Their previous encounters came before this Premier League setting, and before Carrick’s current role at Manchester United. The head-to-head record already carries a clear edge for Carrick, who has twice got the better of Maresca.

Their first meeting arrived in November 2023 in the Championship, when Middlesbrough hosted at the Riverside Stadium. That match was decided by a moment of quality from Sam Greenwood, whose 83rd-minute free kick proved enough to settle the contest. His strike, curled from long range into the top corner, was later chosen by fans as the club’s Goal of the Season.

The game itself was far less polished than the winning goal. It was a bruising, disjointed affair that produced seven bookings and 33 fouls, underlining how little rhythm either side managed to establish.

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When the fixture was reversed later that season at the King Power Stadium, Carrick again came out on top. Middlesbrough won 2-1, extending his perfect record in the pairing and giving him another result to lean on ahead of this latest derby occasion.

With Maresca now preparing to face Carrick in a very different setting, the past meetings offer a useful reminder that this is not an unfamiliar rivalry. The names may be attached to a new stage, but the competitive pattern remains the same.

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Championship

Grading the Major USMNT Moves of the 2026 Summer Window

USMNT transfer grades from a summer of World Cup momentum, fresh starts, and one Deadline Day collapse.

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The 2026 World Cup changed the market for several U.S. men’s national team players. Strong performances on the biggest stage helped open doors across Europe, while others used the summer to secure fresh opportunities after productive domestic seasons. From MLS exits to moves inside Europe’s top leagues, the window produced a mix of progress, promise and one Deadline Day saga that never quite became a transfer.

Sebastian Berhalter was among the clearest beneficiaries. He was not a regular starter under Pochettino this summer, but he still logged five World Cup appearances, finishing with a goal and an assist. That followed a career-best 21 goal contributions for the Vancouver Whitecaps in 2025, and he backed it up again in 2026 with seven goals and four assists in 18 matches. Middlesbrough moved quickly, paying $2 million in July for the midfielder’s signature. The switch to England’s second tier gives him a major step up from MLS and a possible pathway toward the Premier League.

Gio Reyna needed a reset, and he got one. After managing only 20 appearances for Borussia Mönchengladbach in 2025-26, he went to the World Cup and delivered five appearances, capped by a standout goal against Paraguay. That was enough for Strasbourg to hand him a five-year deal. Reyna has already shown encouraging signs, setting up the only goal in a preseason match against Newcastle United before making his Ligue 1 debut off the bench. He then earned a start against Lens and helped Strasbourg take three points. For a player who needs rhythm, that kind of continuity matters.

Zavier Gozo’s move carried a different kind of weight. The 19-year-old left Real Salt Lake for Crystal Palace on a five-year contract, scored for the club’s U-21s against Arsenal’s youth side, and then made his Premier League debut six days later in a 4-1 loss to Manchester City. The numbers were modest, but the age profile and upside remain obvious.

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Folarin Balogun did not move in the end, but his Deadline Day story was impossible to ignore. A permanent switch from Monaco to Everton fell apart after a failed medical, a brief pivot toward Joshua Zirkzee, renewed contact over Balogun, and Monaco pulling back from a separate sale involving Lamine Camara. In the end, Balogun stayed put.

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PFA Awards 2026: Fernandes and Shaw lead the honours

Fernandes and Shaw headlined the 2026 PFA Awards after standout seasons in England.

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The 53rd PFA Awards took place on Tuesday night at the Manchester Opera House, with the game’s leading players across England recognised for their 2025-26 seasons. The ceremony covered the Premier League, the EFL Championship, League One and Two, the Women’s Super League and the Women’s Super League 2.

Bruno Fernandes claimed the men’s Player of the Year award after a remarkable campaign for Manchester United. The midfielder set a Premier League record with 21 assists in a single season, and he became the first United player since Wayne Rooney in 2010 to win the prize.

In the women’s category, Manchester City forward Khadija “Bunny” Shaw was voted Player of the Year for a second time. Shaw scored 21 goals in 22 matches last season and played a key role as City won the title. Her recognition completed a double after she was also named women’s Player of the Year by the Football Writers’ Association in May.

Fernandes also completed a double of his own after being selected as men’s Player of the Year by the Football Writers’ Association in May.

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City youngster Nico O’Reilly, 21, received the men’s Young Player of the Year award, while Arsenal forward Olivia Smith, 22, won the women’s Young Player of the Year honour for the second straight season.

Elsewhere, former Middlesbrough midfielder Hayden Hackney, now with Everton, was named Championship Player of the Year. Birmingham City forward Lily Crosthwaite collected the WSL2 Player of the Year award, while former Leyton Orient forward Dom Ballard, now at Championship side Bristol City, was named League One Player of the Year.

The event also included the Premier League, WSL, Championship, League One and WSL2 Teams of the Year, with the full line-ups listed separately.

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