Premier League
Opta model puts Spurs’ relegation risk under 4% after Thomas Frank departure
Opta’s model gives Tottenham a 3.95% relegation chance after Thomas Frank’s exit and fixtures loom.
Tottenham Hotspur dismissed Thomas Frank on Wednesday morning after a run of results that left the club precariously placed in the table. The club’s statement was terse: “Results and performances have led the board to conclude that a change at this point in the season is necessary,” and followed a 2–1 defeat to Newcastle United that left Spurs 16th, five points clear of the relegation zone.
The immediate concern is obvious: fixtures tighten, injuries persist and no manager is yet in the dugout. The new-look executive board in the absence of Daniel Levy will have more than a week to find a successor—either a stop-gap before a permanent summer appointment or a longer-term choice—before next Sunday’s north London derby.
Despite the turmoil, Opta’s supercomputer assigns Tottenham only a 3.95% chance of relegation. Wolverhampton Wanderers and Burnley are described as effectively consigned to demotion, while West Ham United are rated the likeliest candidates at 74.57% even after an encouraging recent run. Nottingham Forest are given a 15.15% likelihood of dropping, and Leeds United have a 4.82% chance.
The model expects Spurs to finish the season where they sit now, in 16th. That would be marginally better than the Premier League era low of 17th under Ange Postecoglou last term, a campaign that was, at least, balanced by a Europa League trophy. Frank’s side also managed fourth place across the initial league phase of this season’s Champions League, a statistic that offers little consolation as domestic results decline.
Frank has attracted unusual attention off the pitch; he was, according to a report, accused of an unhealthy “obsession” with the Gunners. He will surely watch the derby with interest, and he will remember Eberechi Eze becoming the first player to score a Premier League hat-trick in the fixture in November, a player Tottenham almost signed last summer who has not scored since.
Upcoming fixtures:
Sunday, Feb. 22 — Arsenal (H)
Sunday, March 1 — Fulham (A)
Thursday, March 5 — Crystal Palace (H)
Sunday, March 15 — Liverpool (A)
Leeds United
Remaining Premier League run-in for Tottenham, West Ham, Nottingham Forest and Leeds
Spurs’ win was not enough as West Ham, Forest and Leeds all picked up points in tight run-in. ahead.
Tottenham Hotspur’s first Premier League win of 2026 failed to pull them out of the relegation zone as West Ham United, Nottingham Forest and Leeds United all collected points in midweek. Nottingham Forest demolished Sunderland 5–0 to record three wins from their last four, maintaining a five-point cushion over 18th-placed Spurs. Leeds remain focused on their FA Cup semifinal against Chelsea on Sunday, and Sean Longstaff’s 97th-minute equalizer against Bournemouth midweek kept their survival hopes alive.
Spurs sit on 34 points, West Ham on 36, Nottingham Forest on 39 and Leeds on 40. The final four fixtures carry heavy significance for each club.
Tottenham
– Aston Villa (A) – May 3
– Burnley (H) – May 1
– Chelsea (A) – May 4
– Everton (H) – May 24
Winning against Wolves was an obligation for Tottenham, but the weekend trip to Aston Villa is a far sterner test. A crucial home meeting with Leeds follows and then an away match at Stamford Bridge. Di Zerbi’s side conclude at home to Everton in a fixture described as likely to determine their fate.
West Ham
– Brentford (A) – May 2
– Arsenal (H) – May 10
– Newcastle (H) – May 10
– Leeds (H) – May 11
West Ham will take confidence from an agonizing win against Everton and seven points from their last three. Brentford, winless since February, present a winnable game, before a daunting home match with Arsenal and an away day at Newcastle. The season ends at the London Stadium against Leeds.
Nottingham Forest
Forest travel to Stamford Bridge next weekend, a match sandwiched by a Europa League semifinal tie against Aston Villa. They then host Newcastle before travelling to Old Trafford to face Manchester United in the penultimate weekend. Forest will hope safety is secure by the time Bournemouth visit the City Ground in the final match.
Leeds United
Leeds aim to be FA Cup finalists by the time they host Championship-bound Burnley, a match that offers a valuable opportunity to collect three points and move closer to Premier League survival.
Chelsea
Chelsea under BlueCo: ranking the five managers who served more than 10 games
BlueCo era at Chelsea ranked: five managers with more than 10 games, judged by record. Full breakdown
The BlueCo period at Chelsea has been defined by instability in the dugout and the steady turnover of managers. With Liam Rosenior the latest to lose the job, the club will begin 2026–27 with a sixth permanent manager under BlueCo. Below are the five bosses who managed more than 10 matches in that era, assessed on results and the lasting imprint of their tenures.
Frank Lampard (Games Managed: 11 | Winning Percentage: 9.1% | Trophies Won: 0)
Frank Lampard’s second spell as caretaker in 2022–23 stands in stark contrast to his earlier success. He had “overcoming a transfer ban to lead the Blues to the Champions League in 2019–20,” but his interim run in April produced Chelsea’s worst recent form. Lampard became the first and only manager in Chelsea’s history to lose the opening four games of his tenure. A 3–1 win against Bournemouth was the lone victory of his caretaker spell and the campaign finished with Chelsea 12th in the Premier League, their lowest top-flight finish since 1994.
Liam Rosenior (Games Managed: 23 | Winning Percentage: 47.8% | Trophies Won: 0)
Rosenior’s period began promisingly, with four consecutive Premier League wins and two Champions League victories that helped Chelsea qualify among the top eight in the group stage. The form collapsed thereafter: apart from FA Cup ties against lower-league opponents, Chelsea won just one of their last 11 matches under Rosenior. The team failed to score against a top-flight opponent in each of their last six games with him in charge. After Enzo Fernández scored a momentary equalizer in the first leg of the Champions League quarterfinals against Paris Saint-Germain, Chelsea were outscored 17–0 by top-flight rivals until Rosenior’s sacking.
Graham Potter (Games Managed: 31 | Winning Percentage: 38.7% | Trophies Won: 0)
Potter, the first permanent BlueCo appointment, was unable to steady the side after Thomas Tuchel’s departure. Chelsea won seven of the 22 Premier League matches Potter oversaw and he left with a joint-lowest points-per-game record for managers with more than 20 league matches at 1.27, tied with Glenn Hoddle. After winning just four matches after the calendar turned to 2023, Potter was dismissed in early April while the club endured its most difficult season of the 21st century. He did reach the Champions League quarterfinals during his tenure.
Taken together, the five tenures reveal a period of repeated disruption and mixed short-term flashes amid extended poor runs of form.
Arsenal Match Reports
Eze winner returns Arsenal to summit but double injury scare mars victory
Eze’s wonder goal won 1–0 over Newcastle, but Havertz and Eze left before the hour injured. Arsenal.
Eberechi Eze’s spectacular finish secured a 1–0 victory for Arsenal over Newcastle United, but the result came with two significant fitness concerns. The goal, fashioned from a corner routine, arrived after a sequence of short passes from Noni Madueke to Martin Ødegaard that failed to yield. Madueke instead fed Kai Havertz inside the box; his deft prod allowed Eze to run onto the ball and whip it into the top corner.
The win restores Arsenal to the top of the Premier League table, yet attention will now be split between Manchester and the club’s treatment room with only four days to prepare for the first leg of the Champions League semifinals against Atlético Madrid. Mikel Arteta appeared to have found a first-choice frontline in the technical trio of Eze, Havertz and Martin Ødegaard, supported by a direct right-sided outlet. That combination will be assessed carefully after both Havertz and Eze failed to reach the hour mark.
There was a lifted atmosphere around north London before kick-off. Pep Guardiola put Manchester City’s strong spring form down to the reappearance of the sun and Arteta claimed that his side have benefited from a bit of vitamin D. ”The energy has been so good,” he beamed ahead of kickoff, “the weather has helped as well. So much has been beautiful.” The goal fell into that category and gave the hosts control of the match, even if the remainder of the performance was conservative once the lead arrived.
Individual contributions included a composed outing from David Raya (7.9) and a standout defensive display from Piero Hincapié (8.0). Eze earned a 7.7 for a lively attacking display. Kai Havertz was given 7.1 before his early exit and was replaced by Viktor Gyökeres (34’). Eze was withdrawn on 53’ for Gabriel Martinelli. Subs later included Myles Lewis-Skelly (80’) and Bukayo Saka (81’). Unused substitutes were Kepa Arrizabalaga, Cristhian Mosquera, Max Dowman, Gabriel Jesus and Leandro Trossard.
Match figures showed Arsenal with 45% possession to Newcastle’s 55%, expected goals of 0.64 to 0.91, total shots 11 to 13 and shots on target 4 to 3. The victory is valuable, but the medical reports will dominate the coming days.
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