Man City
Maguire: City Could Face 40–60-Point Deduction If FFP Breaches Are Proven
Maguire: a 40-60 point deduction is plausible if serious FFP breaches are proven; relegation option.
Kieran Maguire has set out a stark possibility for Manchester City as the Premier League’s lengthy probe edges closer to a conclusion. He told The Overlap that, if the most serious allegations are upheld, the club could face a deduction in the region of 40 to 60 points rather than relegation.
The independent investigation concluded in December 2024, and 14 months of silence have followed while figures including Pep Guardiola have grown increasingly weary when pressed on timings. The Premier League alleges City artificially inflated revenues to bypass financial fair play rules across nine seasons (2009–18).
Maguire suggested the most likely immediate finding could relate to non-cooperation. He believes it is “fairly likely” City will be found guilty of “non-cooperation,” a charge that makes up a large portion of the case, and warned that “they are likely to get a significant fine because that is what we saw happen with UEFA and the deductions there.”
The club point to UEFA’s earlier proceedings. UEFA imposed a two-year European ban in February 2020, later overturned by the Court of Arbitration for Sport, which cleared City of “disguising equity funds as sponsorship contribution” while also stating many alleged breaches “were either not established or time-barred.” UEFA applies a five-year limitation that the Premier League does not.
Among players, Erling Haaland has already committed his long-term future after private discussions with the club. He said: “I spoke with the bosses, and in the end, I believe them. It’s such a tricky situation for me to even sit there and speak about, because I wasn’t really involved in it. So I think the club knows what they’re doing. They will sort it out.”
Maguire was clear on sanctions. “The Premier League cannot relegate Manchester City to League One or League Two because that is an EFL decision and Manchester City have not had any charges proven against them by the EFL,” he said. “Therefore, it has to be a points deduction.” He referenced precedent — Everton and Nottingham Forest received six and four-point penalties over three years — and added: “The numbers involved we are not certain about but they are likely to be quite significant. I think you have to add a zero to what we’ve seen in terms of Forest and Everton, so somewhere between a 40 and 60-point deduction would be, on merit to be consistent with what we’ve seen with other decisions, would make a lot of logic.”
He also warned that, if corporate fraud were proven, there could be “a complete restructure of the club.” Maguire added: “I think we’re probably into the final reaches of getting a decision. I think part of the challenge has been that because there are three very senior people who are on the court, who are making that final judgment. Getting those three together at the same time is actually very difficult. So that’s delayed the case. It should be resolved in the next few months.”
Arsenal
How City and Arsenal’s Remaining League Schedules Stack Up as Title Race Tightens
City applied pressure after Brentford; Arsenal must win all three remaining league games, to clinch.
Manchester City closed some of the gap on Premier League leaders Arsenal with victory over Brentford on Saturday evening, re-applying pressure as the run-in approaches. Arsenal control their own fate: they will win a first title in over two decades as long as they taste victory in each of their last three league fixtures. City must hope for slip-ups from the Gunners while navigating their own commitments.
Arsenal face an immediate test on Sunday as the in-form Gunners travel to relegation-threatened West Ham United for their 36th match of the season. That trip represents the biggest banana skin remaining on Arsenal’s schedule, with their motivated hosts scrapping for survival and capable of making life awkward for Mikel Arteta’s side. Still, the league leaders will be strong favorites to clinch three points.
Arsenal’s penultimate Premier League fixture reads Burnley at the Emirates Stadium on May 18. Burnley are already relegated, have lost their previous five in all competitions and have managed just one Premier League win since the start of November. Arsenal finish the season with a London trip to Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park on May 24. Palace could rest personnel ahead of their Conference League final against Rayo Vallecano three days later.
Man City’s schedule includes a rearranged fixture with Crystal Palace this coming Wednesday. Crystal Palace have occasionally proven a thorn in City’s side, most notably triumphing over Pep Guardiola’s men in last year’s FA Cup final. City also have this term’s FA Cup final against Chelsea next Saturday. Three days after the Wembley showdown, they return to Premier League action away at Bournemouth on May 19. Other fixtures for City include Crystal Palace (H) on May 13 and Aston Villa (H) on May 24.
With Arsenal needing three straight wins to secure the title and City still pressing, the closing weeks of the season will be decisive for both clubs.
Analytics & Stats
Opta Simulations Leave Arsenal Favoured as City Cut Lead to Two Points
Opta’s simulations keep Arsenal favourites despite City’s late wins and a tightening title race ’26.
Opta’s supercomputer still ranks Arsenal ahead in the title race despite Manchester City’s late reply at Brentford and a tightening gap. City reduced Arsenal’s lead to two points with both clubs having three matches remaining, but the model continues to favour the Gunners in most scenarios.
Jérémy Doku had been on target twice against Everton on Monday night, yet those goals could not stop City dropping points in a 3–3 draw. Erling Haaland, who scored against Brentford, insisted his team were “still in it” after the Everton setback. Saturday’s reaction at Brentford and the potential importance of goal difference in this finish were both underlined by City’s late flurry.
Opta’s projections list Arsenal on 76 actual points with a predicted 82.37 points and a 79.7% chance of winning the title. Manchester City sit on 74 actual points with a predicted 79.55 points and a 20.3% title probability. Arsenal were given an 85% chance of winning the league in the immediate aftermath of City’s stumble on Merseyside earlier this week.
The computer’s view takes in upcoming schedules. City are shown with fixtures against Crystal Palace and Aston Villa either side of a trip to Bournemouth, a sequence the model judges tricky because Bournemouth remain in the chase for Champions League qualification.
Elsewhere, Manchester United’s place in the Champions League was effectively sealed as they crawled to a goalless draw with Sunderland in their first game after securing qualification. Opta projects United to reach 68.01 points with a 100% chance of qualifying for Europe’s top competition. Liverpool drew 1–1 with Chelsea and still need another win to guarantee a top-five finish. “We wanted to qualify for it weeks ago,” Slot sighed. “It isn’t the season we’re having, though. Sometimes it is really hard to accept these results because we are used to different ones.”
Bournemouth’s manager reflected on survival and ambition after a 1–0 win over Fulham. “Today was a very important step forward,” Bournemouth’s Andoni Iraola beamed after his side battled to a 1–0 win over Fulham on Saturday, “but we still have to get more points.” Brighton’s captain also noted the season’s extremes. “It’s a mental season,” club captain Lewis Dunk gushed, “one minute we’re looking at relegation and now we’re talking about Europe, it’s great fun football, isn’t it?”
On the bottom end, Tottenham conclude the matchday with a crunch clash against Leeds on Monday and their chances of survival have improved, while West Ham do not face Arsenal until Sunday.
Man City
Premier League legal fight with Man City has cost hundreds of millions, accounts show
Premier League legal fight with Man City has cost hundreds of millions; verdict remains pending yet.
The Premier League has incurred substantial legal costs in its dispute with Manchester City over at least 115 charges of alleged financial breaches. The club has denied any wrongdoing and engaged legal teams, producing a prolonged and expensive battle that has weighed on both parties.
According to the Premier League’s latest accounts and reporting in The Times, legal expenditure is understood to have passed £200 million ($272 million). The accounts show annual legal bills falling slightly, from around $65 million in 2023–24 to approximately $60 million for 2024–25. Separately, the total cost of managing the case from both sides is reported to sit at over a quarter-of-a-million dollars.
The formal hearing ran for three months and concluded in early December 2024. Despite the lengthy proceedings, no official verdict has been published, and the Premier League’s accounts offer no timetable for when a decision might be delivered. The duration of the process has generated widespread fury and frustration, although observers note the case’s complexity as a factor in the slow progress.
Premier League chief Richard Masters saw his pay rise by 30% to $3.6 million in salary and bonuses for 2024–25. When asked about the timeline for resolution, he refused to offer a definitive timeline when discussing the matter back in February 2026.
The financial figures in the accounts and the scale of the legal work underline the resource implications for the governing body and the club. For the Premier League, the outlay is presented alongside routine legal spending in its published accounts. For Manchester City, mounting legal fees and a drawn-out hearing have contributed to a long-running dispute that remains unresolved at the time of the accounts’ release.
With the case closed in terms of evidence hearings but without a public ruling, stakeholders on both sides continue to face uncertainty over timing and potential outcomes. The accounts do not indicate when the matter will be concluded.
