Aston Villa have delivered the Premier League’s first defeat of Manchester City this season, and they are also the first side to take points from them. Unai Emery’s team earned that landmark result at Villa Park, where City were below their best and paid for it. Gianluigi Donnarumma and Marc Guéhi were both singled out for especially poor showings, Nicolas Jackson struck on loan to make the difference, and Zion Suzuki contributed six saves across the 90 minutes.

City remain top of the current Premier League standings, but the performance offered the first domestic indication that they are not untouchable. Arsenal followed by matching them on points after beating Everton, leaving the title race level at the summit and Arsenal second only on goal difference.

That Arsenal victory came with Bukayo Saka unavailable and possibly out until Christmas. The Gunners were short of natural creativity, but they compensated by rediscovering the set-piece strength that served them so well last season.

With those results, and two others on Saturday, Opta’s supercomputer updated its predictions again.

The title model now has Arsenal first with 79.55 predicted points and a 53.82% chance of finishing champions. Manchester City are second on 76.11 points and 34.39%. Brighton remain the only other side above 5%, while Liverpool are at 3.29% and Chelsea at 1.42%.

The Champions League outlook keeps Arsenal and City well clear, with both above 90% to qualify. Brighton stand at 58.37%, Liverpool at 46.70%, Chelsea at 31.28% and Aston Villa at 21.66%. Brentford, Leeds and Everton are further back, and Manchester United’s five-match winless run has left them below 6%.

At the lower end, Tottenham have made a notable move in the right direction. Two wins in a row have cut their relegation chance to 14%, and the model now projects them to finish 13th. That is not especially strong, but it is a considerable improvement on consecutive 17th-place finishes in the last two seasons.

The Premier League returns after another midweek round of continental action involving nine English clubs, and Gameweek 8 arrives with little room for recovery. Several of the league’s biggest sides are back in action quickly, while a number of awkward fixtures could shape the standings before the weekend is over.

Friday’s opener at Portman Road looks finely balanced. Ipswich Town have collected nine points from seven matches and have taken two-thirds of that tally at home, with wins over Sunderland and Fulham lifting them to 10th. Nottingham Forest, however, arrive with their own issues, and goals have been difficult to come by for the Tricky Trees. A draw feels the likeliest outcome.

Aston Villa’s meeting with Man City is one of the standout fixtures on Saturday. Villa have won five of their last six, while City have maintained a perfect Premier League run, though their domestic record remains surrounded by uncertainty off the pitch. Even so, their form under Pep Guardiola has been efficient, and with Erling Haaland, Rayan Cherki and Phil Foden in encouraging touch, they are tipped to edge it.

Arsenal are expected to keep pace at the top with a home win over Everton. The Gunners remain defensively solid, even if their attack will be without Bukayo Saka, while Everton are likely to sit deep and counter through Thierno Barry, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and Jack Grealish.

Chelsea’s clash with Tottenham Hotspur closes Saturday and the home side look strong favourites. Spurs have won only once at Stamford Bridge in 25 years, while Chelsea have scored 17 goals in seven matches under Xabi Alonso. João Pedro, Cole Palmer and Morgan Rogers have all been in form.

Elsewhere, Liverpool’s meeting with Brighton has the feel of a high-scoring draw, Man Utd are predicted to share the points with Bournemouth, and Sunderland’s test against Leeds United could be decided by fatigue after their trip to Poland.

The Premier League’s Key Match Incidents Panel has ruled that Ryan Gravenberch’s red card against Manchester City was correctly given earlier this month.

At the moment of the dismissal, the match was level at 0-0. City then made the extra man count almost immediately, with Erling Haaland putting them ahead three minutes later. By the time Liverpool had lost the Dutch midfielder, City had scored three times inside 16 minutes.

There was frustration from a Liverpool point of view, however, because the first yellow card shown to Gravenberch was viewed as severe. It was also described by Andoni Iraola as “not a yellow”.

“[Elliot] Anderson carries on a couple of steps [before falling]. [The referee] wasn’t even going to give a foul. I’ve no idea why he gives a yellow card. We have like nine players behind the ball,” the frustrated Liverpool manager told Sky Sports after the final whistle.

According to BBC Sport, the panel considered both yellow cards when reviewing the dismissal, as required under protocol. The vote was 4:1 in support of the officials. The single dissenting view was that the foul on Anderson should not have produced the first booking. Once that yellow had been awarded, though, the panel was unanimous in backing the VAR decision not to intervene after the second caution brought about the red.

The decision carries no practical punishment beyond confirming the officials were correct. Gravenberch has already completed the one-match suspension attached to the red, missing last weekend’s trip to Brentford. Liverpool won that game without him, helped by two Brentford red cards after falling behind in the first half.

Had the panel reached the opposite conclusion, the only outcome would have been an acknowledgement of the error and a promise to improve. Match officials could also have been left out of duty for a week. That did not happen here.