Arsenal
Panel Rules Everton Were Denied Penalty in Arsenal 1–0 Win After VAR Oversight
Key Match Incidents Panel ruled Everton were wrongly denied a penalty in Arsenal’s 1–0 win. at Hill.
The Premier League’s Key Match Incidents Panel has concluded Everton were wrongfully denied a penalty in their 1–0 defeat to Arsenal. The ruling follows an incident the on-pitch official Sam Barrott and VAR Michael Salisbury missed during the match, a decision that angered the home crowd and Everton manager David Moyes.
Immediately after the game the Premier League Match Centre described the contact as “insufficient” to warrant a spot kick. Less than two weeks later the panel voted 3–2 that Barrott’s choice not to award a penalty was incorrect. The panel also voted 3–2 that VAR Salisbury should have instructed the on-pitch official to review the incident at the monitor.
Those who supported a penalty noted “Saliba carelessly kicks Barry with no contact on the ball”. Those who opposed the award argued “there was not enough impact and a delayed reaction.” The split vote underlines the fine margins at the centre of the decision.
Had Barrott pointed to the spot and Everton converted from 12 yards out, Mikel Arteta’s side would be level with Manchester City atop the table. Instead Arsenal, who were rightfully awarded a first-half penalty that Viktor Gyökeres buried, left with a 1–0 victory and the full three points.
The win allowed the league leaders to top the table at Christmas Day. The club had reached the summit on that holiday on four previous occasions and failed to convert those positions into a Premier League title in each instance.
By New Year’s Eve Arsenal were five points clear of the Cityzens, who held a game in hand. Should Manchester City defeat Sunderland on the first day of the new year the gap would fall to two points.
As the title race develops the panel’s finding on the Everton incident will remain a talking point. The match-day decision at Hill Dickinson Stadium and the panel’s 3–2 verdict may be significant if Arsenal’s margin over Manchester City stays as slender as it is now.
Arsenal
Late Martinelli Push Leaves Conor Bradley’s Knee in Doubt After Stretcher Incident
Conor Bradley may have a serious knee injury after Martinelli’s shove sparked a late brawl. Scans due
Conor Bradley was forced from the pitch on a stretcher after a late knee twist, a sequence that has left Liverpool manager Arne Slot “fearing the worst.” The incident began when Arsenal’s No. 11 dropped the ball onto the prone defender and then attempted to shove him off the field to restart play. That shove ignited a mass brawl which further delayed the match.
Players from Liverpool reacted angrily at what was described as Martinelli’s disregard for a clearly injured opponent. Bradley was later seen leaving the stadium on crutches with his left knee in a brace; there was no suggestion he had been feigning the problem.
Slot was cautious on specifics but clear on the concern. “We have to wait on the scans if it’s that bad,” Slot acknowledged. “But it doesn’t look great if Conor has the injury which we fear he might have.”
The Liverpool manager tempered criticism of the Arsenal forward. “I don’t know Gabriel Martinelli, but he comes across as a nice guy,” he said. “I’m 100% sure that if he knew what the injury might be, that he would never do that,” Slot insisted. “I think the problem for him—and it’s a problem in general in football—is that there is so much time-wasting and players pretending that they are injured in the final parts of the game and during the game, that you can sometimes be annoyed if you want to try to score a goal that you think the player is time-wasting.
“You cannot ask Martinelli to think so clear in the 94th minute.”
Martinelli posted on social media to say he had contacted Bradley. “Conor and I have messaged and I have already apologised to him,” Martinelli wrote on Instagram. “I really didn’t understand he was seriously injured in the heat of the moment. I want to say I’m deeply sorry for reacting.
“Sending Conor all my best again for a quick recovery.”
Arsenal’s manager added a character reference for his player. “Knowing Gabi, if anybody knows Gabi, it’s an incredibly lovely guy and probably he didn’t realise what happened,” the Basque boss declared. “I hope that Conor is well. I will have a word with him now to understand that, but probably he didn’t recognise what happened.”
Broadcasters reacted strongly. Sky Sports commentator Gary Neville called the action unacceptable. “I am actually fuming with Martinelli, I don’t know how the Liverpool players didn’t go over and absolutely whack him to be honest with you and take a red card. Absolutely disgraceful, that,” he seethed. Roy Keane recalled a similar personal experience. “I didn’t like it,” the former Manchester United captain said of the Martinelli incident. “It happened to me when I was badly injured and a player stood over me, and it’s not good.
Arsenal
Comparing Arsenal and Man City’s next five Premier League fixtures
Arsenal lead Man City by six points. January fixtures and cup commitments give City the tougher run.
Arsenal and Manchester City sit six points apart at the top of the Premier League after the conclusion of gameweek 21. Arsenal then went into battle 24 hours later, hosting Liverpool at the Emirates Stadium on Thursday, with the opportunity to extend their lead over City at the top of the table. It was a chance they could not take in a big game that lacked quality in the final third.
With Christmas been and gone, this is the stage of the season where it really starts to matter. Neither can afford to give an inch, with City playing catchup, waiting for Arsenal to slip, and the Gunners determined to hold their nerve to land a first league title in 22 years.
Both teams are competing in four different competitions. Following this week’s fixtures, neither is playing again in the league until January 17; each has FA Cup third round and Carabao Cup semi-final first leg commitments to come between now and then. The final two Champions League league phase matches are also interspersed with other competitions in the remainder of January, while Carabao Cup second legs are scheduled for the first week in February, making the calendar particularly congested outside of the Premier League.
Looking strictly at the league fixture list, Manchester City face the tougher run over the next month.
Arsenal fixtures (next five Premier League games)
– Nottingham Forest vs. Arsenal (Jan. 17)
– Arsenal vs. Man Utd (Jan. 25)
– Leeds Utd vs. Arsenal (Jan. 31)
– Arsenal vs. Sunderland (Feb. 7)
– Brentford vs. Arsenal (Feb. 12)
Man City fixtures (next five Premier League games)
– Man Utd vs. Man City (Jan. 17)
– Man City vs. Wolves (Jan. 24)
– Tottenham vs. Man City (Feb. 1)
– Liverpool vs. Man City (Feb. 8)
– Man City vs. Fulham (Feb. 11)
Pep Guardiola must prepare his side for three significant away tests in that sequence: Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool. Wolverhampton Wanderers at the Etihad Stadium should be a breeze, while Fulham at home is on the more favourable side of the coin, although not easy by any stretch.
Analytics & Stats
Opta model keeps Arsenal clear favourites after Matchday 21 despite mixed results
Opta’s supercomputer keeps Arsenal clear favourites after Matchday 21 despite a 0-0 draw. Opta model.
Matchday 21 failed to produce the decisive shift some supporters expected. Manchester City, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur all dropped points, yet Arsenal could not capitalise fully, settling for a goalless draw with Liverpool.
Opta’s supercomputer updated its post-Matchday 21 forecast and still places Arsenal top of its projections. The model gives Arsenal 49 current points, an expected total of 84.67 points by May and a 86.98% chance of winning the title. The prediction notes that the projected points total would not have been enough to lift the Premier League trophy in eight of the last nine seasons.
Manchester City and Aston Villa remain the next most likely challengers. Opta lists Man City on 43 points with an expected 74.50 and an 8.62% title probability after three consecutive draws to start the new year. Aston Villa are also on 43 points with an expected 73.30 and a 4.21% chance; Unai Emery’s side shared points with Crystal Palace on Wednesday.
The supercomputer’s continental-place projections keep Liverpool in the Champions League positions on current form. Liverpool have 35 points and are projected to reach 64.40 with a 56.97% Champions League probability, the model noting the club’s 10-game unbeaten run following the draw with Arsenal.
Chelsea are in difficulty on results and discipline. The Blues have 31 points, are on a five-game winless run and fell 2-1 to Fulham after Marc Cucurella saw red in the 22nd minute. Opta still projects Chelsea to finish with 57.85 points and a 13.97% Champions League chance, but the club must arrest its slide.
Manchester United have dropped points in their last three matches. Opta gives them a 4.50% chance of reaching the Champions League and projects 54.61 expected points, which would place them just above Brighton in the predicted table. Fulham’s victory over Chelsea moves them into the projected top 10, while Tottenham are forecast to finish 12th.
At the bottom, Opta hands realistic relegation probabilities to five clubs. Leeds (22 points) and Nottingham Forest (21) are projected to survive on about 41 and 40.58 points respectively. West Ham (14), Burnley (13) and Wolves (7) carry much higher risks, with Wolves at a 99.31% chance of relegation in the model.
