Opta’s supercomputer has maintained a clear preference for Arsenal as the title run-in tightens following Saturday’s fixtures. The model assigns Arsenal 81.52 predicted points from their current 73 and a 70.85% chance of winning the title. Manchester City, on 70, are forecast to finish on 79.35 points with a 29.15% chance.

Mikel Arteta warned there would be “plenty more strife to come” after his side’s win, and he insisted the Newcastle match was “Game One” of a five-match shootout. Opta’s projection appears to value remaining fixtures as much as form: Arsenal still face two of the current bottom four, plus Crystal Palace and Fulham, while City’s run includes Everton, Brentford, Bournemouth and a final day trip to Aston Villa.

The supercomputer also sees the Champions League places effectively settled. Manchester United, Liverpool and Aston Villa — each on 58 points — are predicted to finish on 65.75, 63.99 and 64.27 respectively, with qualification chances above 96% for all three.

Europa and Conference places are less clear. Brighton lead the models for sixth with a projected 56.41 points and a 44.69% likelihood of finishing sixth. Bournemouth, Chelsea, Brentford, Fulham and Everton remain in contention but are given substantially lower chances.

At the other end, Burnley and Wolves are confirmed as relegated in the projections with 100% probabilities. Leeds and Nottingham Forest are given minimal relegation risk, while West Ham and Tottenham occupy the precarious middle. Opta gives West Ham a 38.26% relegation probability and Tottenham a 58.57% chance. The draft weekend drama left Spurs briefly out of the drop zone on April 26 before events at other grounds swung matters back: João Palhinha’s winning goal at Molineux and Everton’s late equalizer earlier in the day were followed by Callum Wilson’s winner for West Ham, ensuring his side remained two points clear of Tottenham.

Opta’s forecast narrows the gap between the top two to two predicted points, underscoring how small margins over the final fixtures may decide the title.

Mikel Arteta confirmed Bukayo Saka will be part of the matchday squad for Saturday’s visit from Newcastle United, a welcome development as Arsenal seek to arrest a late-season dip.

The 24-year-old has struggled for fitness this season, with this his third period on the sidelines this year. While none of his injury woes have been particularly serious, they have prevented Saka from building up any sort of momentum. “We have given him some time because there was a moment that he was struggling to sustain the performances because he wasn’t comfortable at all and we’ve done that so he had the right treatment, the right space,” Arteta explained before the game.

“He had some time as well for himself and now it’s the most important part of the season and he’s back with us.

The timing of Saka’s return matters. Watching a fatigued, physically bruised squad fall into a slump at the end of the season is nothing new to Arteta, and it is no coincidence that Arsenal’s title hopes have once again faded during Saka’s latest spell on the sidelines.

Arsenal’s wider fitness problems are easing. Saka returns to the squad alongside left back Riccardo Calafiori, while captain Martin Ødegaard made a surprise return to the starting lineup against City last time out. The manager made clear that availability alone is not the final goal: “Being available is not enough,” Arteta reflected. “Being available with your best version is what we need in this stage of the season. But at least they are with us. They certainly make us stronger.

“We miss them. And now all the players as well, they’ve just come back as well. They’re going to have more games, more minutes, and hopefully we will see a performance as well.

Arteta’s comments underline the importance of regaining full fitness across the squad as Arsenal prepare for a key fixture against Newcastle. The inclusion of Saka and Calafiori restores options and experience as the team aims to recover momentum.

Roy Keane reopened a long-standing dispute with the Haaland family after the confrontation between Manchester City striker Erling and Arsenal defender Gabriel. The incident began with a grappling moment from an aerial challenge in which the two players came together, pressed foreheads and Gabriel pushed his opponent forward. It was not a full headbutt, but it came close. Haaland appeared dumbfounded and his refusal to hit the deck may have prevented Gabriel receiving a red card and a three-match suspension.

There was no VAR intervention. The Match Center ruled the action not to be “excessively aggressive or violent”, citing a perceived lack of force.

Keane commented on the episode during the latest episode of Stick to Football, where the panel discussed the match and the Haaland-Gabriel flashpoint. “His dad would have gone down. I am sure of it. Sorry,” Keane chimed. The line referred back to Keane’s infamous knee-high challenge on Alf-Inge Haaland, then of Manchester City, during a heated derby clash in 2001.

The animosity between the pair has earlier roots. In 1997 Haaland, then of Leeds United, stood over Keane accusing him of feigning injury when Keane had in fact torn an ACL.

Keane later addressed the 2001 tackle in his autobiography, released the following year. He wrote: “I’d waited long enough. I f—-ng hit him hard. The ball was there [I think]. Take that you c—. And don’t ever stand over me again accusing me of fake injuries.”

The consequences of the 2001 incident were significant. Keane received an initial red card that triggered a three-match ban and a £5,000 fine. His admission that the tackle was premeditated prompted a further five-game suspension and a larger £150,000 fine. After Keane’s 2002 revelation Manchester City sought to pursue lost earnings on Haaland’s behalf. It is notable that the Norwegian midfielder finished the match in which the tackle occurred, played 45 minutes in an international fixture and then 68 minutes in City’s next league match. He eventually retired in 2003, with a long-term, preexisting injury to his left knee the ultimate problem.