Arsenal’s visit to Anfield was supposed to expose the scars of a difficult week. Instead, it produced a result that changes the feel of the 2026/27 Premier League season after only nine matches.

The Gunners arrived with the memory of their defeat at League Two Fleetwood Town still fresh, but they handled the occasion with the sort of control usually associated with champions. Kai Havertz’s early strike gave them the platform, and although Liverpool tried to respond with pressure and noise from the Kop, Arsenal refused to bend. Their victory was built on discipline, patience and defensive resistance, and it leaves the look of a collapse far behind them.

Opta’s latest supercomputer forecast now places Arsenal firmly on top of the table. They are projected to finish with 81.21 points and hold a 68.23% title chance, while Manchester City sit second on 71.98 projected points and 18.86% title odds. Brighton are third in the model, Liverpool fourth and Chelsea fifth.

Arsenal’s surge has also pushed their probability of retaining the Premier League title to 68.23%, a sharp rise after Manchester City suffered a second straight defeat. City remain the nearest challengers, though even their prospects are listed below 19%, not including any possible points deduction. Liverpool, already nine points back, have only a 3.06% title chance, despite being considered the most obvious alternative challenger.

Brighton remain one of the stories of the season after beating both of the top two, but Opta still gives them just a 6.86% chance of winning the league. Their more realistic target is Champions League qualification, where they are the only side outside Arsenal and City with better than even odds.

Further down, Manchester United’s position is bleak. Their winless run in all competitions has reached nine games, and Opta now gives them just a 1.48% chance of qualifying for the Champions League. In the relegation projection, Tottenham have moved clear of danger after three wins in a row, while United are suddenly among those with the greatest risk of dropping into the second tier.

“Today has to be the day,” Mikel Arteta said before kickoff, and the match that followed justified the tension in his voice. What unfolded was nothing like the cautious 1-0 contest these sides produced a year earlier. Liverpool, shaped by Andoni Iraola’s arrival over the summer, imposed a far more frantic rhythm on Arsenal and dragged the visitors into a game that never really settled.

Arteta’s team still found a way to win 1-0, a result that brought benefits for both sides while giving the neutral a wildly entertaining afternoon. The contrast in styles was clear from the start. Liverpool played with speed and verticality, in and out of possession, an approach Iraola had previously developed elsewhere and has now carried into Merseyside. Arteta had warned before the trip: “This is a team that is very vertical, they have the capacity to generate chaos from almost every situation.”

Arsenal initially handled that pressure well. They controlled the opening quarter-hour, took a deserved lead and did not allow Liverpool a shot or a touch in their box during that spell. Even so, the hosts finished the first half with 28 touches in the Arsenal penalty area, a Premier League record for a first half against the Gunners.

The visitors were forced to defend with real desperation, though this was a contest they had prepared for. “I expect big chaos in the game,” Gabriel said before the match. “We are ready.” Arteta’s side ended with a physically imposing lineup, and Declan Rice summed up the feeling afterward: “That togetherness we have is undefeated.”

Rice was central to the breakthrough too, driving beyond Noni Madueke’s right shoulder before delivering the ball across for the opening goal. His attacking influence has grown sharply this season, with five Premier League assists already, all from open play.

Liverpool, despite drawing a blank on target, still created enough to feel frustrated. They posted 17 shots and 1.15 expected goals, with several efforts flashing wide from promising positions. Their case was not helped by referee Andy Madley, who missed a clear tug on Alexander Isak in the box, prompting Jamie Carragher to say: “One of the best goalscorers in the league is pulled back seven yards out and it stops him heading the ball-why does he need to make a meal of it? VAR do your job.”

There was more late drama when Alexis Mac Allister and Martín Ødegaard became involved in a brief flashpoint, while Madueke escaped a second caution. Liverpool also had to turn to Trey Nyoni, who was making the first Premier League start of his career after Szoboszlai was left out as a precaution.

Gameweek 9 brings a stacked Premier League schedule, with several meetings that carry clear weight in the early-season picture. The most eye-catching fixtures are Chelsea against Manchester United at Stamford Bridge and Liverpool’s home clash with Arsenal, while there are also plenty of tight contests elsewhere across the division.

At Stamford Bridge, Chelsea are tipped to come through 2-1 against a Manchester United side under pressure after back-to-back three-goal defeats to Como and Bournemouth. Michael Carrick remains in charge for the trip to west London after talks with Bruno Fernandes and the rest of the squad, but this feels like a critical test. Chelsea have their own issues, yet home advantage and the absence of João Pedro could still matter in a narrow contest.

Bournemouth’s strong run is expected to continue with a 2-1 win over Leeds United. The Cherries have produced a striking sequence of results across multiple competitions, and with Rayan, Marcus Tavernier and Evanilson supported by Eli Junior Kroupi’s return, they look well placed to extend that momentum.

Other calls point to draws for Brentford against Nottingham Forest and Newcastle United against Everton, while Coventry and Sunderland are forecast to cancel each other out. Hull are backed to edge Ipswich 1-0, and Manchester City are favoured to beat Brighton 3-2 in what could be the weekend’s most open game.

Tottenham are projected to keep improving with a 2-0 win over Crystal Palace, while Aston Villa are expected to defeat Fulham 3-0 after their recent uptick in form. The standout result, though, is at Anfield, where Arsenal are predicted to win 2-1 after Liverpool’s recent consistency meets a team looking to respond after a cup setback. The final matchup, Newcastle versus Everton, is also forecast to finish level.