Arsenal’s visit to Anfield was supposed to expose the scars of a difficult week. Instead, it produced a result that changes the feel of the 2026/27 Premier League season after only nine matches.

The Gunners arrived with the memory of their defeat at League Two Fleetwood Town still fresh, but they handled the occasion with the sort of control usually associated with champions. Kai Havertz’s early strike gave them the platform, and although Liverpool tried to respond with pressure and noise from the Kop, Arsenal refused to bend. Their victory was built on discipline, patience and defensive resistance, and it leaves the look of a collapse far behind them.

Opta’s latest supercomputer forecast now places Arsenal firmly on top of the table. They are projected to finish with 81.21 points and hold a 68.23% title chance, while Manchester City sit second on 71.98 projected points and 18.86% title odds. Brighton are third in the model, Liverpool fourth and Chelsea fifth.

Arsenal’s surge has also pushed their probability of retaining the Premier League title to 68.23%, a sharp rise after Manchester City suffered a second straight defeat. City remain the nearest challengers, though even their prospects are listed below 19%, not including any possible points deduction. Liverpool, already nine points back, have only a 3.06% title chance, despite being considered the most obvious alternative challenger.

Brighton remain one of the stories of the season after beating both of the top two, but Opta still gives them just a 6.86% chance of winning the league. Their more realistic target is Champions League qualification, where they are the only side outside Arsenal and City with better than even odds.

Further down, Manchester United’s position is bleak. Their winless run in all competitions has reached nine games, and Opta now gives them just a 1.48% chance of qualifying for the Champions League. In the relegation projection, Tottenham have moved clear of danger after three wins in a row, while United are suddenly among those with the greatest risk of dropping into the second tier.

Michael Carrick’s position at Manchester United is becoming harder to defend after Saturday’s 2-0 loss to Chelsea stretched the club’s winless sequence to nine matches in all competitions.

That run matches a low point last seen under Sir Alex Ferguson, but the comparison only goes so far. Ferguson’s side were two years into his spell when they went nine games without a victory, and even then they managed to draw seven of those matches before eventually ending the sequence with a 3-0 win over Charlton Athletic.

Carrick’s case is more damaging because the numbers are sharper and the performances have been poorer over a longer stretch. United have now lost six of their last nine matches in all competitions and drawn the other three. The 3-0 defeat to Bournemouth had already sparked the view that his time could be up, leading to crisis talks before the decision was made to give him another chance.

Against Chelsea, though, there were at least signs of a response early on. United were the better side for the first 45 minutes, with Carrick apparently getting a positive reaction from his players at the start of the match. That opening spell is unlikely, however, to settle the wider debate around his future.

There is clear acceptance at the club that both results and performances are not meeting the required level, and officials are already weighing up possible alternatives, including Eddie Howe and Julian Nagelsmann.

Even so, Carrick may feel he was not entirely betrayed by his own approach. Some of the damage at Chelsea came from individual mistakes, and Lisandro Martínez’s decision to lead with his arm as he jumped with Wesley Fofana cannot be laid at the manager’s door. After the Bournemouth defeat, there were also suggestions that some at Old Trafford recognised the players’ share of responsibility in the slump.

Chelsea took full advantage of Lisandro Martínez’s dismissal to beat Manchester United 2-0 at Stamford Bridge, a result that added further scrutiny to the under-pressure Michael Carrick.

The opening half was far more competitive than the scoreline eventually suggested. United, coming off consecutive three-goal defeats, showed clearer resistance and created chances of their own. Amad Diallo twice forced Chelsea’s goalkeeper into action, while Matheus Cunha thought he had found the net only for VAR to rule his near-post effort out for offside. Chelsea also had a moment chalked off when Estêvão tapped into an empty net, only for the linesman’s flag to intervene.

The deadlock remained intact until five minutes after the interval, when United’s defending unravelled. Morgan Rogers found space in the penalty area and produced a delicate dink to put Chelsea ahead after the visitors failed to deal with the danger.

United’s task became even harder soon after. Martínez, booked only moments earlier, was dismissed for a second yellow after barging into Wesley Fofana at a corner. Cole Palmer then converted the resulting penalty to make the advantage decisive.

Chelsea pressed for more, and Estêvão had another effort ruled out for offside, but the two-goal margin was enough to secure the points and extend United’s frustration.

United had actually begun the contest with purpose and control, but the same old issues returned quickly after the break. Their defence opened up far too easily for Rogers’ opener, while the midfield offered too little protection. Carrick’s side also wasted the best of their first-half openings, and those misses proved costly.

Martínez’s red card summed up the mood around United: reckless, needless and avoidable. It was the latest damaging moment in a season already defined by collapse, and it left Chelsea to stroll away with a result that reflected the gulf in composure when the match was decided.