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When the Title Could Be Decided: The Earliest Paths for Arsenal and Manchester City

Scenarios show Arsenal could secure the title on May 10; City could wrap it up by May 17. Final run.

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Mikel Arteta predicted that any team hoping to win the Premier League would have to acquire “over 90 points.” That benchmark assumes winning runs that neither Arsenal nor Manchester City have managed this season. With the run-in still to play, there are clear scenarios that would hand the title to one side earlier than most expect.

Arsenal retain a straightforward theoretical route to the championship as early as May 10. For the Gunners to end a 22-year trophy drought with two games to spare, Manchester City must take no more than two points from their next three fixtures: April 22 Burnley, May 4 Everton and May 9 Brentford. If City meet that restrictive return, Arsenal would then need to beat Newcastle (April 25), Fulham (May 2) and West Ham at the London Stadium (May 10).

Manchester City, by contrast, would likely lift the title later. If their game-in-hand against Crystal Palace is scheduled for May 22 as expected (but not yet confirmed), City can theoretically clinch on the weekend of May 17. That route requires City to win against Burnley (April 22), Everton (May 4) and Brentford (May 9) while Arsenal falter in their corresponding fixtures. The decisive weekend on May 17 would hinge on results such as Arsenal vs Burnley and Bournemouth vs Man City, with City needing to avoid defeat or Arsenal failing to win.

There is also the real possibility the race reaches the final day on May 24. If both teams win all remaining matches, they would finish level on 82 points. Given how close they are on goal difference and goals scored, head-to-head could be used. In that event, City would be crowned champions, having beaten Arsenal at the Etihad after the north London meeting produced a draw earlier in the season.

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The season finishes with Arsenal at Crystal Palace and City at home to Aston Villa. The draft scenarios underline how fine margins, scheduling and a few unexpected results will determine whether the title is settled early or decided in the closing hours of the campaign.

Arsenal: Reverse fixture 1-0 win. Record over last five games W4 D1 L0. Record at venue over last five games W4 D0 L1.

Man City: Reverse fixture 1-0 loss. Record over last five games W2 D0 L3.

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Arsenal’s Friendly Defeat in Dublin Exposes Familiar Concerns

Arsenal were beaten 3-1 by Real Betis in Dublin after a poor first half and Kepa errors.

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Arsenal’s first setback of the summer arrived in Dublin, where a flat display ended in a 3-1 defeat to Real Betis in preseason.

The match began poorly for Arsenal and never really recovered. Kepa Arrizabalaga, under renewed scrutiny amid talk that he may not remain at the club for the full summer, endured a difficult evening as Betis took control. His role in the opening goal was costly, with the goalkeeper coming for a corner, misjudging the delivery and leaving Riquelme with a simple finish at the far post. Kepa then struggled again when Arsenal’s opponents scored their second, with a poor clearance handing back possession before Deossa struck powerfully from the edge of the area.

Piero Hincapié did briefly give Arsenal some hope when he converted from a corner supplied by new arrival Christos Tzolis, but Pablo Fornals restored Betis’ two-goal advantage just before half-time. By that stage, Arsenal had already been exposed far too often.

Mikel Arteta made widespread changes after the interval and gave several younger players an opportunity to impress, yet Arsenal never looked like mounting a meaningful comeback. With Declan Rice, Martín Zubimendi and Martin Ødegaard absent after their World Cup involvement, the midfield was reshuffled and looked vulnerable throughout. Myles Lewis-Skelly and Ethan Nwaneri were used deeper, while Kai Havertz played further forward, but the structure lacked control and intensity.

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The first half was especially poor. Betis countered with ease, Arsenal conceded three times before the break, and the defensive protection in front of the back four was nowhere near strong enough. Lewis-Skelly and Nwaneri, both hoping to strengthen their claims for bigger roles, did not do enough to shift that picture.

There was also frustration for Louie Copley, who lasted only 11 minutes before injury ended his afternoon. The 19-year-old, who spent the second half of last season on loan at Crawley Town, went off in visible discomfort after catching his studs in the turf and appeared to twist his knee.

Arsenal will not be overreacting, but the performance offered reminders that plenty of first-team players are still missing, including Raya, Bukayo Saka and Noni Madueke.

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Why Bruno Guimaraes Is Set on Arsenal’s No. 39

Bruno Guimaraes’ attachment to No. 39 could make the Arsenal shirt choice straightforward.

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Bruno Guimaraes’ move from Newcastle United to Arsenal raises the usual question that follows a new signing: which shirt number will he take? For most players, it is a practical choice. For some, it carries real weight. For Guimaraes, there appears to be only one option.

Back in 2023, the Brazilian midfielder explained to The Players’ Tribune why No. 39 means so much to him. “The number tells a story more beautiful than words can say,” he said. “I know people think it’s a weird number for a footballer. But for me 39 is special—no, it’s more than that. It’s magical. The No. 39 gave me everything in life. … It fed me, clothed me and paid for three-hour bus rides to pursue my dream.”

The reason is deeply personal. As Guimarães revealed, #039 was the dispatch number for his father’s taxi cab in Rio de Janeiro. His father’s work shaped the midfielder’s childhood, with long days spent driving through the city and rare moments of release reserved for watching his son play on Saturday.

Guimarães’ path to the top was not simple. At one stage, he was so unsure of his future that he obtained a driver’s license in case he followed the family trade. His turning point came with a loan move to Athletico Paranaense in 2017, when his father called and urged him toward the same number. “What about 39? That is more than a number. 039 gave us everything we have, Bruno. Our house, our food, our furniture, your football boots. It was all because of our taxi.”

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He was already due to wear 39 when he arrived, and the number was handed to him by chance. He and his father both broke down in tears.

Since then, he has carried those digits at Lyon and Newcastle, and even tattooed them on his right calf. Arsenal do not currently have anyone wearing the shirt, which clears the way for Guimarães to continue with the number that has followed him throughout his career.

There is history there too. Francis Coquelin wore No. 39 on his Premier League debut, while Héctor Bellerín also spent time with it during his Arsenal career. More recently, academy midfielder Harrison Dudziak briefly held the number before being released over the summer.

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Bruno Guimaraes Set To Become Arsenal’s Second-Highest Transfer Fee

Arsenal are close to sealing a huge move for Bruno Guimarães, which would reshape their transfer rankings.

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Arsenal are close to finalising a move for Newcastle United captain Bruno Guimarães, with the Brazil midfielder expected to become the second most expensive signing in the club’s history if the reported deal is completed.

Multiple reports say Newcastle are prepared to approve his departure for a fee of $101 million (£75 million), after the two clubs reportedly found a “compromise.” At 28, Guimarães would leave St James’ Park after a summer in which Sandro Tonali and Anthony Gordon also departed at significant expense, a run of exits that reportedly led Eddie Howe to tender his resignation as manager.

For Arsenal, the scale of the move would underline how sharply their spending has risen under Mikel Arteta. A club that once sought a manager “who will not spend big money on transfers.” has long since embraced a different approach.

If the transfer goes through at the quoted figure, Guimarães would sit behind only Declan Rice in Arsenal’s list of record buys. Most of the club’s biggest fees have been committed during Arteta’s time in charge, and four of the 10 most expensive arrivals in Arsenal history came in last summer alone, when Martín Zubimendi, Eberechi Eze, Viktor Gyökeres and Noni Madueke arrived for a combined total of more than $300 million.

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The proposed move would also place Guimarães above Nicolas Pépé, whose $92 million transfer from Lille in 2019 remains one of the most costly and one that ultimately ended Unai Emery’s spell.

The fee, though substantial, is still below the temporary $135 million release clause inserted into Guimarães’s new five-year contract in October 2023. Newcastle had bought him from Lyon for around $58 million in 2022, but Arsenal appear to have struck a lower figure than that clause.

When viewed against this summer’s market, the move would not even top the scale of other major deals. It would be the fifth most expensive transfer in that wider group, behind the reported sums involved in moves for Mateus Fernandes, Elliot Anderson and Morgan Rogers.

Arteta summed up the reality of elite spending last summer when he said: “The budget is like when you have your wedding,” and added: “you plan your wedding with your wife and you give her a budget and it’s never less, it’s always more.”

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